What is NFLX's intrinsic value?

TickerWorth's blended fair value for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) is $41.38 per share, versus a market price of $70.53 (70% above fair value).

Is NFLX overvalued or undervalued?

On our blended fair value NFLX looks overvalued vs fair value at $70.53. This is an educational estimate, not advice.

What discount rate is used for NFLX?

A WACC of 10.9% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.

Is Netflix stock undervalued?

TickerWorth's fair value for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) is $41.38 against a market price of $70.53. Our read: 70% above fair value. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.

Netflix (NFLX) DCF valuation and fair value

Our fair value for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) is $41.38, built on a 10.9% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.

What growth is priced into Netflix stock?

Today's price implies revenue growth of 19.9% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 9.7% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $70.53. A model estimate, not investment advice.

Netflix (NFLX) insider trading

The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX): BARTON RICHARD N, Director, option exercise on 2026-09-10. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.

NFLX · Intrinsic value

Is Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) overvalued or undervalued?

Name: Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) DCF intrinsic value
Creator: TickerWorth

Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) trades at the delayed market price of $70.53 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of 19.9% a year for 5 years. TickerWorth's fair value is $41.38 a share (70% above fair value), as of Oct 19, 2026. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.

Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from a hand-researched model · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made

Open full NFLX analysis

Is NFLX overvalued?

Fair value: $41.38
Market price: $70.53
Downside to fair value: 41.3%
Verdict: 70% above fair value

Price as of 19 Oct 2026, 13:16 UTC · Prices are delayed.

Fair value against the delayed market price: 70% above fair value.

Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 19.9% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 9.7% a year on average over the same horizon.

What is NFLX's TickerWorth Score?

D42/100

Expensive vs our estimate — the business scores well

Compared with Communication Services companies in US

Its strongest point: a profitable, high-quality business. Its weakest: trades above our estimate of what it's worth.

Value · 32 of 100
Cheaper than 32% of Communication Services companies in US
Price vs worth · 17 of 100
Quality · 76 of 100
More profitable than 76% of Communication Services companies in US
Financial health · 52 of 100
Financially stronger than 52% of Communication Services companies in US
Growth · 48 of 100
Growing faster than 48% of Communication Services companies in US
Momentum · 12 of 100
Outperformed 12% of Communication Services companies in US over the past year

Confidence: High confidence · Scored 19 Oct 2026, 13:16 UTC

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Where the numbers come from

Hand-researched model

What the modeller flagged

TERMINAL VALUE IS ~71% OF ENTERPRISE VALUE (PV of terminal $138.1B of $194.0B EV), implying ~8.9x terminal-year EBITDA (PP&E depreciation only). Slightly below the 75% danger line because the 10.93% WACC discounts the far future hard, but most of the answer is still the steady state.
YEAR-1 MODELED FCF ($11.3B) IS 19% ABOVE FY2025 REPORTED FCF ($9,461M) — just inside the 20% line, explained anyway: it is a year of growth (revenue +13%, margin +2pt), not a methodology gap. The like-for-like check is FY2026 guidance of ~$12.5B, which INCLUDES the $2.8B termination fee (roughly $2.2B after tax, my estimate) and is NET of the ~$0.7B of Brazil tax deposits the 10-K said Netflix expected to pay. Strip the fee and add back the deposits and the guide is ~$11.0B, within ~3% of the model's unlevered $11.3B (the remaining differences — after-tax interest, SBC add-back, cash-vs-book tax — roughly offset).
BETA NORMALIZED DOWN from the published 1.526 to 1.20, which RAISES the value. The published figure is a 2022-crash artifact (post-2023 regressions run ~0.93-1.00), but this is the input most able to move the answer: at the published beta the value is $36.89/share, 45% below the market instead of 34%.
THE CONTENT PREMIUM IS A JUDGEMENT. Years 2-5 and the terminal carry 2.5% of revenue of content cash over amortization (ratio ~1.07x). If Netflix holds the guided ~1.1x forever (~3.5%), the value falls ~$1.6/share; if growth slows and the ratio converges to ~1.03x (~1%), it rises ~$2.5/share. Netflix's own history (0.93x in strike-hit 2023, 1.11x 2024, 1.08x 2025, 1.16x H1 2026) shows it is not stable year to year.
Y1 IS GUIDANCE, Y2-Y5 ARE MINE. The revenue fade (11% -> 7%) and margin climb (33% -> 35.5%) are the two levers that matter most after beta and neither is management's. Netflix has given no multi-year targets.
PARAMOUNT SKYDANCE + WARNER BROS. DISCOVERY is the new scaled competitor (HBO Max + Paramount+ under one owner). Not modeled explicitly; it is part of why the growth fade is ~1.5pt a year rather than slower.
SBC ($368M in FY2025, 0.8% of revenue; $272M in H1 2026) stays expensed in GAAP EBIT and is not added back. Dilution is captured by the diluted share count, which is FALLING because buybacks dwarf issuance.

NFLX DCF valuation: what the price assumes

At a recent price of $70.53, Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) trades 70% above TickerWorth's blended fair value of $41.38 per share — a discounted-cash-flow model cross-checked against peer multiples and asset value — meaning the market currently prices NFLX overvalued vs our estimate of what the business is intrinsically worth. Our fair value sits below the market, an implied -41.3% move to close the gap if the business performs in line with our assumptions. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation — the value moves with the inputs, which you can test yourself using the WACC slider below.

Read the full reasoning

One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values NFLX at about $44.29 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.

The valuation discounts Netflix, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 10.9%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 71% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.

Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 19.9% annual revenue growth for NFLX. Our base case instead compounds to about 9.7% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in materially faster growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.

Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, NFLX's modeled DCF value ranges from about $34.50 to $62.23 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.

How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Netflix, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of NFLX's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.

Every input behind NFLX's DCF

Input	Value	Source
Base-year revenueNetflix FY2025 10-K (accession 0001065280-26-000034, filed 2026-01-23): us-gaap:Revenues, FY2025 = $45,183,036K, +15.9% vs FY2024 $39,001M. UNCHANGED as the base; the DCF grows it by forecast.revenue_growth. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 revenue $24,810M, +14.7% on H1 2025's $21,622M; Q2 2026 alone $12,560M (+13.4%, +12% F/X-neutral), per the Q2 2026 letter (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1065280/000106528026000211/ex991_q226.htm).	$45,183,000,000	Netflix FY2025 10-K (accession 0001065280-26-000034, filed 2026-01-23): us-gaap:Revenues, FY2025 = $45,183,036K, +15.9% vs FY2024 $39,001M. UNCHANGED as the base; the DCF grows it by forecast.revenue_growth. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 revenue $24,810M, +14.7% on H1 2025's $21,622M; Q2 2026 alone $12,560M (+13.4%, +12% F/X-neutral), per the Q2 2026 letter (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1065280/000106528026000211/ex991_q226.htm).
Base EBIT marginNetflix FY2025 10-K (accession 0001065280-26-000034, filed 2026-01-23): us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss FY2025 $13,326.6M / revenue $45,183.0M = 29.49% (Netflix's own letter rounds it to 29.5%). This is GAAP operating income AFTER content amortization and AFTER a ~$619M one-off Brazil non-income-tax charge booked in Q3 2025 (10-K Note 9); ex-Brazil the margin would be ~30.9%. Kept at the reported figure — the base-year margin does not drive the forecast, it only sets the 'peak' the mechanical cyclical test compares against (peak = max(29.5%, Y1 31.5%) = 31.5%). CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 operating margin 32.8% ($8,150M / $24,810M); Q2 2026 33.4%.	29.5%	Netflix FY2025 10-K (accession 0001065280-26-000034, filed 2026-01-23): us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss FY2025 $13,326.6M / revenue $45,183.0M = 29.49% (Netflix's own letter rounds it to 29.5%). This is GAAP operating income AFTER content amortization and AFTER a ~$619M one-off Brazil non-income-tax charge booked in Q3 2025 (10-K Note 9); ex-Brazil the margin would be ~30.9%. Kept at the reported figure — the base-year margin does not drive the forecast, it only sets the 'peak' the mechanical cyclical test compares against (peak = max(29.5%, Y1 31.5%) = 31.5%). CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 operating margin 32.8% ($8,150M / $24,810M); Q2 2026 33.4%.
Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast	13% → 11% → 10% → 8% → 7%	ESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast
Risk-free rateUS 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. House input shared by every model in this tracker.	5.2%	US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. House input shared by every model in this tracker.
BetaESTIMATEAssumption — normalized estimate (published Yahoo 5Y-monthly beta 1.526, read via yfinance 2026-10-03): NORMALIZED DOWN from the published 1.526 to 1.20 — this RAISES the value, so it is stated loudly. Reason: the 5Y-monthly window (Oct 2021-Sep 2026, ~60 points) is dominated by the 2022 subscriber-loss crash, when NFLX fell ~75% peak to trough. Re-running the regression on the same price data (NFLX vs S&P 500, yfinance adjusted closes): 5Y monthly 1.61; monthly from Jan 2023 onward 1.00; 3Y weekly 0.99; 2Y weekly 0.93. The post-2022 business — profitable, ad tier, paid sharing, net cash-light balance sheet — has traded at roughly market beta. 1.20 deliberately sits ABOVE the recent ~1.0 to keep a premium for the engagement and content-hit risk that the stock is repricing right now (-14% in September). Each 0.1 of beta is worth roughly $2.5/share: the published 1.526 gives $36.89/share, the post-2022 ~1.0 gives $50.36.	1.20	ESTIMATEAssumption — normalized estimate (published Yahoo 5Y-monthly beta 1.526, read via yfinance 2026-10-03): NORMALIZED DOWN from the published 1.526 to 1.20 — this RAISES the value, so it is stated loudly. Reason: the 5Y-monthly window (Oct 2021-Sep 2026, ~60 points) is dominated by the 2022 subscriber-loss crash, when NFLX fell ~75% peak to trough. Re-running the regression on the same price data (NFLX vs S&P 500, yfinance adjusted closes): 5Y monthly 1.61; monthly from Jan 2023 onward 1.00; 3Y weekly 0.99; 2Y weekly 0.93. The post-2022 business — profitable, ad tier, paid sharing, net cash-light balance sheet — has traded at roughly market beta. 1.20 deliberately sits ABOVE the recent ~1.0 to keep a premium for the engagement and content-hit risk that the stock is repricing right now (-14% in September). Each 0.1 of beta is worth roughly $2.5/share: the published 1.526 gives $36.89/share, the post-2022 ~1.0 gives $50.36.
Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability. For Netflix it is arguably CONSERVATIVE: the forecast exits year 5 still growing 7%, and global streaming penetration of TV time is not yet mature, so the step-down to 2.5% is abrupt. A 3.0% terminal adds ~$2.2/share. Must remain well below the 10.93% WACC.	2.5%	ESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability. For Netflix it is arguably CONSERVATIVE: the forecast exits year 5 still growing 7%, and global streaming penetration of TV time is not yet mature, so the step-down to 2.5% is abrupt. A 3.0% terminal adds ~$2.2/share. Must remain well below the 10.93% WACC.
Diluted sharesNetflix Q2 2026 10-Q (accession 0001065280-26-000212, filed 2026-07-17): Q2 2026 weighted-average DILUTED shares 4,261,300K (post-split; the letter's 'Shares (FD)' row shows the same 4,261M). Down from 4,343.9M for FY2025 and 4,348.8M in Q2 2025 — Netflix buys back far more than it issues ($4.7B in Q2 2026 alone, its largest quarter; $27.1B of authorization left). Using the weighted Q2 figure is mildly CONSERVATIVE: period-end outstanding was 4,163.9M, so period-end diluted is nearer ~4,235M, and buybacks continued after June. Consistent with net debt, which is also struck at 2026-06-30 before those post-quarter buybacks.	4,261M	Netflix Q2 2026 10-Q (accession 0001065280-26-000212, filed 2026-07-17): Q2 2026 weighted-average DILUTED shares 4,261,300K (post-split; the letter's 'Shares (FD)' row shows the same 4,261M). Down from 4,343.9M for FY2025 and 4,348.8M in Q2 2025 — Netflix buys back far more than it issues ($4.7B in Q2 2026 alone, its largest quarter; $27.1B of authorization left). Using the weighted Q2 figure is mildly CONSERVATIVE: period-end outstanding was 4,163.9M, so period-end diluted is nearer ~4,235M, and buybacks continued after June. Consistent with net debt, which is also struck at 2026-06-30 before those post-quarter buybacks.
Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 13:16 UTC	$70.53	Delayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 13:16 UTC

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What does Netflix, Inc. do?

What does it do?

Netflix, Inc. provides entertainment services worldwide. It operates in the Entertainment industry (Communication Services sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 16,000 people.

How does it make money?

The business turns $48.4B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $33 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 33.4%), after a 49% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 28.2% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.

Is it financially healthy?

Financially it looks mixed: carries modest debt (0.6× equity), can just cover its short-term bills (1.1× current ratio), and is currently profitable.

Who at NFLX filed insider trades?

Recent insider filings for Netflix, Inc.
Date	Insider	Relationship	What happened	Value	Filing
10 Sept 2026	BARTON RICHARD N	Director	Option exercise	$19,085.04	Form 4 for BARTON RICHARD N (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
10 Sept 2026	BARTON RICHARD N	Director	Open-market sale	$54,194.40	Form 4 for BARTON RICHARD N (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
9 Sept 2026	BARTON RICHARD N	Director	Option exercise	$4,624.61	Form 4 for BARTON RICHARD N (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
9 Sept 2026	BARTON RICHARD N	Director	Option exercise	$12,988.43	Form 4 for BARTON RICHARD N (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
9 Sept 2026	BARTON RICHARD N	Director	Open-market sale	$54,907.20	Form 4 for BARTON RICHARD N (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
8 Sept 2026	BARTON RICHARD N	Director	Option exercise	$14,477.04	Form 4 for BARTON RICHARD N (opens sec.gov in a new tab)

A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans

Common questions

What is NFLX's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's blended fair value for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) is $41.38 per share, versus a market price of $70.53 (70% above fair value).
Is NFLX overvalued or undervalued?
On our blended fair value NFLX looks overvalued vs fair value at $70.53. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for NFLX?
A WACC of 10.9% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Netflix stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair value for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) is $41.38 against a market price of $70.53. Our read: 70% above fair value. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Netflix (NFLX) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair value for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) is $41.38, built on a 10.9% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Netflix stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 19.9% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 9.7% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $70.53. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Netflix (NFLX) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX): BARTON RICHARD N, Director, option exercise on 2026-09-10. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.