NiSource Inc. (NI) — Valuation Snapshot

NiSource Inc. (NI) is a rate-regulated utility, and a free-cash-flow discounted-cash-flow (DCF) model is structurally the wrong lens for one. Its returns are not won in a market — a regulator sets them on an approved rate base — and the heavy, permanent capital spending that depresses its free cash flow is the business model rather than a problem with it. We have the data to print a DCF number for NI; we don't publish one because the model's assumptions don't describe how this company actually earns. What follows is the lenses that do — descriptive, not a valuation, and not investment advice.

On the numbers we do have, NI trades at a recent price of $41.15, a market capitalisation of about $19,733,899,264, sitting 25% of the way up its 52-week range ($38.45–$49.21), on the NYSE.

The standard alternative to a DCF is relative valuation — comparing NI's trading multiples against a sector benchmark. Here that gives P/E of 21.8× (in line with the peer median of 21.2×); Fwd P/E of 18.3× (in line with the peer median of 17.9×); P/B of 2.1× (in line with the peer median of 2.1×); P/S of 2.9× (cheaper than the peer median of 3.2×); EV/EBITDA of 13.0× (in line with the peer median of 13.4×); Dividend yield of 2.9% (richer than the peer median of 3.4%). A cheaper multiple than peers can flag a discount or a market that expects weaker growth; it is a comparison, not a recommendation.

The asset, or book-value, lens is the classic tool for asset-heavy businesses and financials. NI shows a price-to-book (P/B) of 2.06 and book value of $19.97 per share. Price-to-book compares the market price to the accounting net-asset value per share; below 1.0 can mean a discount to net assets or that the market is pricing in trouble — descriptive either way, never a buy signal on its own.

Finally, a price-based read — explicitly not a valuation. NI is in a down-trend (price below both its 50- and 200-day averages), trading -16.4% from its 52-week high. Over the past year the stock is +2.8%. Moving-average trend and 52-week position describe where the stock has traded; they say nothing about what it is worth.

To be exact about what this page is not: we are not saying the numbers for NI are unavailable. They are, and they are above. We are saying a discounted-cash-flow model is the wrong instrument for this kind of business, and publishing one anyway — because the inputs happen to exist — would be a precise answer to the wrong question. Refusing is the more useful answer, and it is the same rule we apply to every name in this category.