NI · Intrinsic value
Is NiSource Inc. (NI) overvalued or undervalued?
NiSource Inc. (NI) trades at the delayed market price of $42.76 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of 12.6% a year for 5 years. TickerWorth's fair value is $31.74 a share (priced within our range of $22.70 – $43.33). We do not call it over- or undervalued from inside our range.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from SEC filings and market data · Updated Oct 20, 2026 · How these pages are made
Is NI fairly valued?
- Fair value
- $31.74
- Market price
- $42.76
- Downside to fair value
- 25.8%
- Verdict
- Priced within our range of $22.70 – $43.33
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 12.6% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 4.1% a year on average over the same horizon.
What is NI's TickerWorth Score?
Scores lower than almost every company we compare it with
Compared with Utilities companies in US
Its strongest point: recent price trend has been strong. Its weakest: trades above our estimate of what it's worth.
- Value · 39 of 100
Cheaper than 39% of Utilities companies in US
- Price vs worth · 20 of 100
- Quality · 41 of 100
More profitable than 41% of Utilities companies in US
- Financial health · 36 of 100
Financially stronger than 36% of Utilities companies in US
- Growth · 36 of 100
Growing faster than 36% of Utilities companies in US
- Momentum · 53 of 100
Outperformed 53% of Utilities companies in US over the past year
Confidence: High confidence · Scored
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NI DCF valuation, input by input
TickerWorth's fair value for NiSource Inc. (NI) is $31.74 a share, against the delayed market price of $42.76 (priced within our range of $22.70 – $43.33). We do not call it over- or undervalued from inside our range. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
Read the full reasoning
One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values NI at about $25.90 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.
The valuation discounts NiSource Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 6.7%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 80% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 12.6% annual revenue growth for NI. Our base case instead compounds to about 4.1% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in materially faster growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, NI's modeled DCF value ranges from about $12.38 to $78.08 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what NiSource Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of NI's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind NI's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueNISOURCE INC. FY2025 10-K (accession 0001111711-26-000027): us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, FY2025 full year. | $6,522,800,000 |
| Base EBIT marginNISOURCE INC. FY2025 10-K (accession 0001111711-26-000027): us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss 1,835,300,000 / revenue 6,522,800,000 = 28.14%, FY2025. | 28.1% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 4% → 4% → 4% → 4% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.1% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 0.55 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesNISOURCE INC. FY2025 10-K (accession 0001111711-26-000027): WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding = 474,500,000 shares, FY2025. | 474M |
| Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-20 23:00 UTC | $42.76 |
Change NI's assumptions
The discount-rate dial and the editable model
ProChange growth, margin and WACC yourself — Pro (7-day free trial, card required).
What does NiSource Inc. do?
What does it do?
NiSource Inc., an energy holding company, operates as a regulated natural gas and electric utility company in the United States. It operates in two segments, Columbia Operations and NIPSCO Operations. It operates in the Utilities - Regulated Gas industry (Utilities sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 7,668 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $6.5B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $17 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 17.2%), after a 51% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 13.2% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks stretched: carries moderate debt (1.5× equity), may struggle to cover its short-term bills (0.5× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
Who at NI filed insider trades?
| Date | Insider | Relationship | What happened | Value | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BIRMINGHAM MELODY | EVP & Grp President, Utilities | Open-market sale | $1,590,388.94 | Form 4 for BIRMINGHAM MELODY (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Jesanis Michael E | Director | Other acquisition/disposition | — | Form 4 for Jesanis Michael E (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Berman Melanie B. | EVP Administration & CHRO | Open-market sale | $715,200.00 | Form 4 for Berman Melanie B. (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Yates Lloyd M | Director, Director and President & CEO | Open-market sale | $950,065.65 | Form 4 for Yates Lloyd M (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| BIRMINGHAM MELODY | EVP & Grp President, Utilities | Open-market sale | $118,575.00 | Form 4 for BIRMINGHAM MELODY (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| BIRMINGHAM MELODY | EVP & Grp President, Utilities | Open-market sale | $471,850.00 | Form 4 for BIRMINGHAM MELODY (opens sec.gov in a new tab) |
A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans
Common questions
What is NI's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's blended fair value for NiSource Inc. (NI) is $31.74 per share, versus a market price of $42.76 (priced within our range of $22.70 – $43.33).
Is NI overvalued or undervalued?
Priced within our range of $22.70 – $43.33 at $42.76. We don't call NI overvalued or undervalued from a range. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for NI?
A WACC of 6.7% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is NiSource stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair value for NiSource Inc. (NI) is $31.74 against a market price of $42.76. Our read: Priced within our range of $22.70 – $43.33. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
NiSource (NI) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair value for NiSource Inc. (NI) is $31.74, built on a 6.7% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into NiSource stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 12.6% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 4.1% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $42.76. A model estimate, not investment advice.
NiSource (NI) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for NiSource Inc. (NI): BIRMINGHAM MELODY, EVP & Grp President, Utilities, open-market sale on 2026-08-14. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.
Save this valuation
NI goes on your watchlist, where its valuation is re-run as new filings land — so you read the current number, not the one from today.