NOC · Intrinsic value
Is Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) overvalued or undervalued?
Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) trades at the delayed market price of $519.86 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of 12.5% a year for 5 years. TickerWorth's fair value is $437.00 a share (priced within our range of $340.40 – $561.20). We do not call it over- or undervalued from inside our range.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from SEC filings and market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
Is NOC fairly valued?
- Fair value
- $437.00
- Market price
- $519.86
- Downside to fair value
- 15.9%
- Verdict
- Priced within our range of $340.40 – $561.20
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 12.5% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 4.5% a year on average over the same horizon.
What is NOC's TickerWorth Score?
A weaker business than most companies
Compared with Industrials companies in US
Its strongest point: looks cheap on the numbers. Its weakest: growth is slow or negative.
- Value · 67 of 100
Cheaper than 67% of Industrials companies in US
- Price vs worth · 37 of 100
- Quality · 48 of 100
More profitable than 48% of Industrials companies in US
- Financial health · 38 of 100
Financially stronger than 38% of Industrials companies in US
- Growth · 15 of 100
Growing faster than 15% of Industrials companies in US
- Momentum · 19 of 100
Outperformed 19% of Industrials companies in US over the past year
Confidence: High confidence · Scored
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NOC DCF valuation, input by input
TickerWorth's fair value for Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) is $437.00 a share, against the delayed market price of $519.86 (priced within our range of $340.40 – $561.20). We do not call it over- or undervalued from inside our range. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
Read the full reasoning
One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values NOC at about $340.40 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.
The valuation discounts Northrop Grumman Corporation's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 9.1%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 74% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 12.5% annual revenue growth for NOC. Our base case instead compounds to about 4.5% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in materially faster growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, NOC's modeled DCF value ranges from about $234.79 to $571.89 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Northrop Grumman Corporation would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of NOC's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind NOC's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueNORTHROP GRUMMAN CORP /DE/ FY2025 10-K (accession 0001133421-26-000003): us-gaap:Revenues, FY2025 full year. | $41,954,000,000 |
| Base EBIT marginNORTHROP GRUMMAN CORP /DE/ FY2025 10-K (accession 0001133421-26-000003): us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss 4,511,000,000 / revenue 41,954,000,000 = 10.75%, FY2025. | 10.8% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 5% → 5% → 4% → 4% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.3% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 1.00 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesNORTHROP GRUMMAN CORP /DE/ FY2025 10-K (accession 0001133421-26-000003): WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding = 143,800,000 shares, FY2025. | 144M |
| Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 13:54 UTC | $519.86 |
Change NOC's assumptions
The discount-rate dial and the editable model
ProChange growth, margin and WACC yourself — Pro (7-day free trial, card required).
What does Northrop Grumman Corporation do?
What does it do?
Northrop Grumman Corporation operates as an aerospace and defense technology company in the United States, Asia/Pacific, Europe, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Aeronautics Systems, Defense Systems, Mission Systems and Space Systems. It operates in the Aerospace & Defense industry (Industrials sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 95,000 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $42.9B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $12 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 11.6%), after a 20% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 10.5% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks mixed: carries modest debt (1.0× equity), can just cover its short-term bills (1.2× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
Who at NOC filed insider trades?
| Date | Insider | Relationship | What happened | Value | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KRISHNA ARVIND | Director | Grant / award | $36,261.00 | Form 4 for KRISHNA ARVIND (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Brown Marianne Catherine | Director | Grant / award | $46,414.08 | Form 4 for Brown Marianne Catherine (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| WELSH MARK A III | Director | Open-market sale | $4,356.24 | Form 4 for WELSH MARK A III (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| WELSH MARK A III | Director | Open-market sale | $10,366.21 | Form 4 for WELSH MARK A III (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| WELSH MARK A III | Director | Open-market sale | $6,010.62 | Form 4 for WELSH MARK A III (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| WELSH MARK A III | Director | Open-market sale | $16,970.02 | Form 4 for WELSH MARK A III (opens sec.gov in a new tab) |
A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans
Common questions
What is NOC's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's blended fair value for Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) is $437.00 per share, versus a market price of $519.86 (priced within our range of $340.40 – $561.20).
Is NOC overvalued or undervalued?
Priced within our range of $340.40 – $561.20 at $519.86. We don't call NOC overvalued or undervalued from a range. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for NOC?
A WACC of 9.1% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Northrop Grumman stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair value for Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) is $437.00 against a market price of $519.86. Our read: Priced within our range of $340.40 – $561.20. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Northrop Grumman (NOC) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair value for Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) is $437.00, built on a 9.1% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Northrop Grumman stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 12.5% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 4.5% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $519.86. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Northrop Grumman (NOC) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC): KRISHNA ARVIND, Director, grant / award on 2026-09-30. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.
How does NOC compare with its peers?
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Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.