NOVN.SW · Intrinsic value
Is Novartis AG (NOVN.SW) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 19, 2026, TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Novartis AG (NOVN.SW) at CHF 49.06 – CHF 184.93, too broad a range to say where the delayed market price of CHF 124.70 sits in it, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
What is NOVN.SW worth?
- Fair-value range
- CHF 49.06 – CHF 184.93
- Market price
- CHF 124.70
- Gap to fair value
- —
- Verdict
- Too wide to call
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 0.6% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 2.4% a year on average over the same horizon.
What is NOVN.SW's TickerWorth Score?
Middle of the pack — real strengths and real weaknesses
Compared with Healthcare companies in Europe
Its strongest point: a profitable, high-quality business. Its weakest: balance sheet looks stretched.
- Value · 40 of 100
Cheaper than 40% of Healthcare companies in Europe
- Price vs worth · 46 of 100
- Quality · 100 of 100
More profitable than virtually every one of the Healthcare companies in Europe
- Financial health · 29 of 100
Financially stronger than 29% of Healthcare companies in Europe
- Growth · 31 of 100
Growing faster than 31% of Healthcare companies in Europe
- Momentum · 81 of 100
Outperformed 81% of Healthcare companies in Europe over the past year
Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored
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Why NOVN.SW gets a range, not one number
At a recent price of 124.70, Novartis AG (NOVN.SW) sits inside a range too wide to call either way: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between 49.06 and 184.93 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
Read the full reasoning
The valuation discounts Novartis AG's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 7.2%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 80% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 0.6% annual revenue growth for NOVN.SW. Our base case instead compounds to about 2.4% a year over the same forecast, so the market's implied growth is broadly in line with our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, NOVN.SW's modeled DCF value ranges from about 80.31 to 279.36 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Novartis AG would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of NOVN.SW's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind NOVN.SW's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueLive feed — totalRevenue (TTM) | 47,161,210,000 |
| Base EBIT marginComputed — trailing operatingMargins, held roughly flat | 34.6% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 1% → 2% → 2% → 3% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.3% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 0.47 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesLive feed — sharesOutstanding | 1,901M |
| Market priceLast known price · as of 2026-10-19 13:19 UTC | 124.70 |
Change NOVN.SW's assumptions
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What does Novartis AG do?
What does it do?
Novartis AG researches, develops, manufactures, distributes, markets, and sells pharmaceutical medicines in Switzerland and internationally. The company offers Entresto, an angiotensin receptorneprilysin inhibitor to treat symptomatic chronic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF); Cosentyx to treat plaque psoriasis, pso riatic arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, and nonradiographic axial spondy loarthritis; Kisqali, a selective oral cyclin dependent inhibitor of kinases 4 and 6 (CDK4/6); Promacta/Revolade to treat immune thrombocytopenia (ITP), thrombocytopenia, and patients with severe aplastic anemia (SAA); Tafinlar+Mekinist, an oral combination therapy to treat patients with certain types of cancers; and Jakavi for the treatment of myelofibrosis, polycythemia vera, and acute or chronic graftversushost disease (GvHD). It operates in the Drug Manufacturers - General industry (Healthcare sector), headquartered in Switzerland. The company employs roughly 75,267 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns 56.7B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $35 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 34.6%), after a 75% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 22.5% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks stretched: carries moderate debt (1.2× equity), may struggle to cover its short-term bills (0.9× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
NOVN.SW insider trading
Insider filings are available for US-listed companies only.
Common questions
What is NOVN.SW's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Novartis AG (NOVN.SW) between 49.06 and 184.93 per share, versus a market price of 124.70. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value, so we publish the range.
Is NOVN.SW overvalued or undervalued?
At 124.70 the price sits inside a range too wide to call either way. We don't call NOVN.SW overvalued or undervalued from a range this wide. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for NOVN.SW?
A WACC of 7.2% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Novartis stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair-value range for Novartis AG (NOVN.SW) is CHF 49.06 – CHF 184.93 against a market price of CHF 124.70. Too wide to call. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Novartis (NOVN.SW) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair-value range for Novartis AG (NOVN.SW) is CHF 49.06 – CHF 184.93, built on a 7.2% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Novartis stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 0.6% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 2.4% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of CHF 124.70. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Novartis (NOVN.SW) insider trading
We have no recent SEC Form 4 insider filings on file for Novartis AG (NOVN.SW). Form 4 covers US-listed companies only.
Other ways into the coverage
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.