NRG · Intrinsic value
Is NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 19, 2026, TickerWorth's valuation lenses put NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG) at $34.91 – $214.48, too broad a range to say where the delayed market price of $99.50 sits in it, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from SEC filings and market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
What is NRG worth?
- Fair-value range
- $34.91 – $214.48
- Market price
- $99.50
- Gap to fair value
- —
- Verdict
- Too wide to call
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of −5.3% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 9.8% a year on average over the same horizon.
What is NRG's TickerWorth Score?
Middle of the pack — real strengths and real weaknesses
Compared with Utilities companies in US
Its strongest point: trades below our estimate of what it's worth. Its weakest: recent price trend has been weak.
- Value · 49 of 100
Cheaper than 49% of Utilities companies in US
- Price vs worth · 100 of 100
- Quality · 29 of 100
More profitable than 29% of Utilities companies in US
- Financial health · 30 of 100
Financially stronger than 30% of Utilities companies in US
- Growth · 88 of 100
Growing faster than 88% of Utilities companies in US
- Momentum · 3 of 100
Outperformed 3% of Utilities companies in US over the past year
Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored
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Why NRG gets a range, not one number
At a recent price of $99.50, NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG) sits inside a range too wide to call either way: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $34.91 and $214.48 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
Read the full reasoning
The valuation discounts NRG Energy, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 8.1%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 81% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly -5.3% annual revenue growth for NRG. Our base case instead compounds to about 9.8% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in slower growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, NRG's modeled DCF value ranges from about $140.92 to $406.95 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what NRG Energy, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of NRG's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind NRG's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueNRG Energy, Inc FY2025 10-K (accession 0001013871-26-000004): us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, FY2025 full year. | $30,347,000,000 |
| Base EBIT marginNRG Energy, Inc FY2025 10-K (accession 0001013871-26-000004): us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss 1,845,000,000 / revenue 30,347,000,000 = 6.08%, FY2025. | 6.1% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 16% → 13% → 10% → 7% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.3% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 1.17 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesNRG Energy, Inc FY2025 10-K (accession 0001013871-26-000004): WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding = 199,000,000 shares, FY2025. | 199M |
| Market priceLast known price · as of 2026-10-19 20:13 UTC | $99.50 |
Change NRG's assumptions
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What does NRG Energy, Inc. do?
What does it do?
NRG Energy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an energy and home services company in the United States and Canada. It operates through the Texas, East, West/Other, Vivint Smart Home, and Corporate Activities segments. It operates in the Utilities - Independent Power Producers industry (Utilities sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 16,702 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $30.3B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $13 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 12.8%), after a 19% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 2.6% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks stretched: carries heavy debt (4.8× equity), may struggle to cover its short-term bills (1.0× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
Who at NRG filed insider trades?
| Date | Insider | Relationship | What happened | Value | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Gerald Alfred | SVP & Chief Accounting Officer | Open-market sale | $191,069.40 | Form 4 for Spencer Gerald Alfred (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Bentley Brad | Exec VP, Pres NRG Consumer | Shares withheld (tax) | — | Form 4 for Bentley Brad (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Bentley Brad | Exec VP, Pres NRG Consumer | Shares withheld (tax) | — | Form 4 for Bentley Brad (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Donohue Elisabeth B | Director | Grant / award | — | Form 4 for Donohue Elisabeth B (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Cox Heather | Director | Grant / award | — | Form 4 for Cox Heather (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Carrillo Antonio | Director | Grant / award | — | Form 4 for Carrillo Antonio (opens sec.gov in a new tab) |
A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans
Common questions
What is NRG's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's valuation lenses put NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG) between $34.91 and $214.48 per share, versus a market price of $99.50. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value, so we publish the range.
Is NRG overvalued or undervalued?
At $99.50 the price sits inside a range too wide to call either way. We don't call NRG overvalued or undervalued from a range this wide. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for NRG?
A WACC of 8.1% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is NRG Energy stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair-value range for NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG) is $34.91 – $214.48 against a market price of $99.50. Too wide to call. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
NRG Energy (NRG) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair-value range for NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG) is $34.91 – $214.48, built on a 8.1% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into NRG Energy stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of −5.3% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 9.8% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $99.50. A model estimate, not investment advice.
NRG Energy (NRG) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG): Spencer Gerald Alfred, SVP & Chief Accounting Officer, open-market sale on 2026-09-08. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.
Other ways into the coverage
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.