NSC · Intrinsic value
Is Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) overvalued or undervalued?
Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) trades at the delayed market price of $323.48 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of 22.4% a year for 5 years. TickerWorth's fair value is $168.17 a share (92% above fair value), as of Oct 20, 2026. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from SEC filings and market data · Updated Oct 20, 2026 · How these pages are made
Is NSC overvalued?
- Fair value
- $168.17
- Market price
- $323.48
- Downside to fair value
- 48.0%
- Verdict
- 92% above fair value
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 22.4% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 5.1% a year on average over the same horizon.
What is NSC's TickerWorth Score?
Scores lower than most companies we compare it with
Compared with Industrials companies in US
Its strongest point: a profitable, high-quality business. Its weakest: trades above our estimate of what it's worth.
- Value · 41 of 100
Cheaper than 41% of Industrials companies in US
- Price vs worth · 12 of 100
- Quality · 81 of 100
More profitable than 81% of Industrials companies in US
- Financial health · 22 of 100
Financially stronger than 22% of Industrials companies in US
- Growth · 32 of 100
Growing faster than 32% of Industrials companies in US
- Momentum · 63 of 100
Outperformed 63% of Industrials companies in US over the past year
Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored
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NSC DCF valuation: what the price assumes
At a recent price of $323.48, Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) trades 92% above TickerWorth's blended fair value of $168.17 per share — a discounted-cash-flow model cross-checked against peer multiples and asset value — meaning the market currently prices NSC overvalued vs our estimate of what the business is intrinsically worth. Our fair value sits below the market, an implied -48.0% move to close the gap if the business performs in line with our assumptions. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation — the value moves with the inputs, which you can test yourself using the WACC slider below.
Read the full reasoning
One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values NSC at about $137.61 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.
The valuation discounts Norfolk Southern Corporation's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 10.1%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 71% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 22.4% annual revenue growth for NSC. Our base case instead compounds to about 5.1% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in materially faster growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, NSC's modeled DCF value ranges from about $97.11 to $216.92 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Norfolk Southern Corporation would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of NSC's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind NSC's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueNORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP FY2025 10-K (accession 0001628280-26-006268): us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, FY2025 full year. | $12,180,000,000 |
| Base EBIT marginNORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP FY2025 10-K (accession 0001628280-26-006268): us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss 4,356,000,000 / revenue 12,180,000,000 = 35.76%, FY2025. | 35.8% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 6% → 6% → 5% → 5% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.3% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 1.27 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesNORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP FY2025 10-K (accession 0001628280-26-006268): WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding = 225,300,000 shares, FY2025. | 225M |
| Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-20 08:21 UTC | $323.48 |
Change NSC's assumptions
The discount-rate dial and the editable model
ProChange growth, margin and WACC yourself — Pro (7-day free trial, card required).
What does Norfolk Southern Corporation do?
What does it do?
Norfolk Southern Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the rail transportation of raw materials, intermediate products, and finished goods in the United States. The company transports agriculture, forest, and consumer products comprising soybeans, wheat, corn, fertilizers, livestock and poultry feed, food products, food oils, flour, sweeteners, ethanol, lumber and wood products, pulp board and paper products, wood fibers, wood pulp, beverages, and canned goods; chemicals, including sulfur and related chemicals, petroleum products comprising crude oil, chlorine and bleaching compounds, plastics, rubber, industrial chemicals, chemical wastes, sand, and natural gas liquids; metals and construction materials, such as steel, aluminum products, machinery, scrap metals, cement, aggregates, minerals, clay, transportation equipment, and military-related products; and automotive, including finished motor vehicles and automotive parts, as well as coal. It operates in the Railroads industry (Industrials sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 19,300 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $12.2B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $35 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 35.3%), after a 45% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 21.0% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks stretched: carries moderate debt (1.1× equity), may struggle to cover its short-term bills (0.8× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
Who at NSC filed insider trades?
| Date | Insider | Relationship | What happened | Value | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huffard John C Jr | Director | Code W | — | Form 4 for Huffard John C Jr (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| George Mark R | Director, President & CEO | Option exercise | — | Form 4 for George Mark R (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| George Mark R | Director, President & CEO | Shares withheld (tax) | $334,615.50 | Form 4 for George Mark R (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Orr John F | EVP & Chief Operating Officer | Option exercise | — | Form 4 for Orr John F (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Orr John F | EVP & Chief Operating Officer | Shares withheld (tax) | $1,041,653.84 | Form 4 for Orr John F (opens sec.gov in a new tab) |
A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4).
Common questions
What is NSC's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's blended fair value for Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) is $168.17 per share, versus a market price of $323.48 (92% above fair value).
Is NSC overvalued or undervalued?
On our blended fair value NSC looks overvalued vs fair value at $323.48. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for NSC?
A WACC of 10.1% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Norfolk Southern stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair value for Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) is $168.17 against a market price of $323.48. Our read: 92% above fair value. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Norfolk Southern (NSC) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair value for Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) is $168.17, built on a 10.1% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Norfolk Southern stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 22.4% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 5.1% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $323.48. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Norfolk Southern (NSC) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC): Huffard John C Jr, Director, code w on 2026-10-08. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.
Stocks below our fair value instead
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.