NVAX · Intrinsic value
Is Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 19, 2026, TickerWorth publishes a fair-value range of $15.55 – $15.55 for Novavax, Inc. (NVAX), against the delayed market price of $11.09: priced below our range. It is a range, not a single number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
What is NVAX worth?
- Fair-value range
- $15.55 – $15.55
- Market price
- $11.09
- Gap to fair value
- —
- Verdict
- Priced below our range
Reverse DCF, on our cash-flow model rather than the range above: no growth rate up to 300%/yr justifies the price under these economics
What is NVAX's TickerWorth Score?
Middle of the pack — real strengths and real weaknesses
Compared with Healthcare companies in US
Its strongest point: trades below our estimate of what it's worth. Its weakest: profitability is weak.
- Value · 68 of 100
Cheaper than 68% of Healthcare companies in US
- Price vs worth · 82 of 100
- Quality · 7 of 100
More profitable than 7% of Healthcare companies in US
- Financial health · 58 of 100
Financially stronger than 58% of Healthcare companies in US
- Growth · 0 of 100
Growing faster than almost none of the Healthcare companies in US
- Momentum · 75 of 100
Outperformed 75% of Healthcare companies in US over the past year
Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored
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Why NVAX gets a range, not one number
At a recent price of $11.09, Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) sits below every lens we ran: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $15.55 and $15.55 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
Read the full reasoning
The valuation discounts Novavax, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 15.3%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 552% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is unusually high — most of the answer comes from a single assumption about the far future, so treat this figure as low-confidence and lean on the multiples alongside it.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, NVAX's modeled DCF value ranges from about $1.95 to $2.60 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Novavax, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of NVAX's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind NVAX's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueLive feed — totalRevenue (TTM) | $413,800,000 |
| Base EBIT marginComputed — trailing operatingMargins, held roughly flat | 2.0% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | -6% → -3% → -1% → 2% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.2% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 2.44 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesLive feed — sharesOutstanding | 165M |
| Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 16:19 UTC | $11.09 |
Change NVAX's assumptions
The discount-rate dial and the editable model
ProChange growth, margin and WACC yourself — Pro (7-day free trial, card required).
What does Novavax, Inc. do?
What does it do?
Novavax, Inc., a biotechnology company, engages in the discovery, development, and commercialization of vaccines to prevent serious infectious diseases in the United States, Europe, and internationally. The company commercializes Nuvaxovid, a COVID-19 vaccine; and R21 Matrix-M adjuvant malaria vaccine. It operates in the Biotechnology industry (Healthcare sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 749 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $414M in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $0 is left as operating profit (operating margin of -89.6%), after a -3% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, -59.9% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks solid: comfortably covers its short-term bills (2.3× current ratio), and is currently lossmaking.
Who at NVAX filed insider trades?
| Date | Insider | Relationship | What happened | Value | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodgers Richard J | Director | Option exercise | — | Form 4 for Rodgers Richard J (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| King Rachel K. | Director | Option exercise | — | Form 4 for King Rachel K. (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| DOUGLAS RICHARD | Director | Option exercise | — | Form 4 for DOUGLAS RICHARD (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| MCGLYNN MARGARET G | Director | Option exercise | — | Form 4 for MCGLYNN MARGARET G (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| MOTT DAVID M | Director | Option exercise | — | Form 4 for MOTT DAVID M (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Alton Gregg H | Director | Option exercise | — | Form 4 for Alton Gregg H (opens sec.gov in a new tab) |
A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans
Common questions
What is NVAX's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) between $15.55 and $15.55 per share, versus a market price of $11.09. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value, so we publish the range.
Is NVAX overvalued or undervalued?
At $11.09 the price sits below every lens we ran. We don't call NVAX overvalued or undervalued from a range this wide. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for NVAX?
A WACC of 15.3% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Novavax stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair-value range for Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) is $15.55 – $15.55 against a market price of $11.09. Priced below our range. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Novavax (NVAX) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair-value range for Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) is $15.55 – $15.55, built on a 15.3% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Novavax stock?
no growth rate up to 300%/yr justifies the price under these economics This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $11.09. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Novavax (NVAX) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Novavax, Inc. (NVAX): Rodgers Richard J, Director, option exercise on 2026-06-20. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.
Other ways into the coverage
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.