NVO · Intrinsic value
Is Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 20, 2026, TickerWorth publishes a fair-value range of $36.26 – $59.76 for Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO), against the delayed market price of $38.42: priced within our range. It is a range, not a single number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from a hand-researched model · Updated Oct 20, 2026 · How these pages are made
What is NVO worth?
- Fair-value range
- $36.26 – $59.76
- A range by design: peer multiples and our researched mid-cycle DCF.
- Market price
- $38.42
- Gap to fair value
- —
- Verdict
- Priced within our range
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 1.3% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 1.0% a year on average over the same horizon.
What is NVO's TickerWorth Score?
Scores higher than most companies we compare it with
Compared with Healthcare companies in US
Its strongest point: looks cheap on the numbers. Its weakest: growth is slow or negative.
- Value · 87 of 100
Cheaper than 87% of Healthcare companies in US
- Price vs worth · 75 of 100
- Quality · 94 of 100
More profitable than 94% of Healthcare companies in US
- Financial health · 41 of 100
Financially stronger than 41% of Healthcare companies in US
- Growth · 17 of 100
Growing faster than 17% of Healthcare companies in US
- Momentum · 8 of 100
Outperformed 8% of Healthcare companies in US over the past year
Confidence: High confidence · Scored
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Why NVO gets a range, not one number
At a recent price of $38.42, Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) sits inside our range of estimates: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $36.26 and $59.76 per share. For a cyclical we value through the cycle we publish a range only (peer multiples and our researched mid-cycle DCF): where in the cycle the business sits decides where in that range it lands, and a single figure would claim we know that precisely. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
Read the full reasoning
The valuation discounts Novo Nordisk A/S's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 7.8%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 78% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 1.3% annual revenue growth for NVO. Our base case instead compounds to about 1.0% a year over the same forecast, so the market's implied growth is broadly in line with our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, NVO's modeled DCF value ranges from about $24.24 to $69.38 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Novo Nordisk A/S would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of NVO's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind NVO's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueNovo Nordisk FY2025 financial report, 6-K (accession 0000353278-26-000006, filed 2026-02-03); FY2025 20-F (accession 0000353278-26-000012): ADJUSTED net sales, converted at ONE stated rate. Reported FY2025 net sales DKK 309,064M (ifrs-full:Revenue in the 20-F XBRL; +6% in DKK, +10% at CER). Less the DKK 2,649M non-recurring, non-cash 340B rebate-provision reversal booked in Q2 2025 ('In 2025, USD 400 million has been excluded') = DKK 306,415M — the exact base Novo's 2026 'adjusted sales growth' guidance is struck against, so the Year-1 guided growth applies to like-for-like numbers. Converted at USD 1 = DKK 6.65966 (Yahoo DKK=X, 2026-10-05 21:35 UTC — the same spot rate used for capex and net debt; Novo's 2025 average USD rate was close to this) = $46,011M. CURRENCY TREATMENT: Novo reports in DKK and the ADR trades in USD; every DKK figure in this file is translated at the single spot rate above, and growth is entered in DKK terms, so the model is a constant-currency DKK forecast expressed in today's dollars. It carries NO view on USD/DKK. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 adjusted sales DKK 148,551M, +2% at CER and -2% in DKK on H1 2025's adjusted DKK 152,295M (Q2 2026 6-K, Appendix 7). Reported H1 2026 sales of DKK 175,311M are NOT usable: they include a DKK 26,760M one-off, non-cash reversal of the 340B provision in Q1 2026. | $46,011,000,000 |
| Base EBIT marginNovo Nordisk FY2025 financial report, 6-K (accession 0000353278-26-000006, filed 2026-02-03): Reported FY2025 operating profit DKK 127,658M (ifrs-full:ProfitLossFromOperatingActivities) less the DKK 2,649M 340B reversal = DKK 125,009M / adjusted sales DKK 306,415M = 40.80%. This is DEPRESSED by one-offs that I deliberately leave in: ~DKK 8,014M of 'major restructuring costs' from the September 2025 transformation (9,000 roles cut; 2.6pp of margin) and DKK 2,760M of intangible impairments. Ex-restructuring the 2025 margin was ~43.4%. Why leave them in: the base margin is only the jumping-off point; Year 1 is built from guidance struck against this same base (see forecast.ebit_margin), so the restructuring savings show up in 2026 rather than being double counted. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 adjusted operating margin 44.6% (DKK 66,247M on 148,551M), but Novo says R&D and promotional spend rise in H2, and the guidance implies an H2 margin near 36%. Amortisation of intangibles (DKK 6,529M in 2025, mostly the three ex-Catalent sites) stays expensed inside this EBIT — see da_pct_revenue. | 40.8% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | -4% → -1% → 3% → 4% → 3% |
| Risk-free rateUS 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation; the program-wide risk-free rate shared by every researched model in this run. A USD rate because we value the USD ADR. | 5.2% |
| BetaESTIMATEAssumption — normalized estimate (published beta via yfinance): Published 5Y-monthly beta is 0.384 (yfinance, NVO and NOVO-B.CO alike). NORMALIZED UP to 0.60 — this LOWERS the value. Reason: the last five years of Novo's returns are dominated by a company-specific boom and bust (the GLP-1 run to a 52-week high of $64.16 and a fall to $35.12), which a regression against the market reads as LOW correlation, not low risk. Large-cap pharma betas cluster ~0.5-0.7; 0.60 is mid-band, set above the 0.45 used for BMY in this tracker because Novo is far more concentrated (GLP-1 franchises are most of sales) and is in an active price war. Each 0.1 of beta is worth ~$3/share: the published 0.384 gives ~$45.17; 0.70 gives ~$33.13. The market price is matched at ~0.56. | 0.60 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5%, kept for comparability. FLAG — a real judgement here, not a formality: the US compound patent on semaglutide (Ozempic, Wegovy, Rybelsus) expires in 2032 (20-F), two years after the explicit forecast ends, and semaglutide is the bulk of sales. 2.5% forever assumes Novo replaces it (CagriSema and cagrilintide patents run to 2037; amycretin/zenagamtide behind them) the way big pharma usually does. The 37% terminal margin and 10% terminal capex carry some of that risk; the growth rate does not. 2.0% takes the value to ~$33.42, 1.5% to ~$31.03, 0% to ~$25.69. Must remain < WACC of 7.82%. | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesNovo Nordisk H1 2026 financial report, 6-K (accession 0000353278-26-000023), Appendix 7 adjusted EPS table: Q2 2026 'average number of shares outstanding, including dilutive effect' 4,435.8M (H1 4,442.2M; FY2025 4,447.7M). ADR RATIO: 'Each ADR represents one deposited Novo Nordisk B share' (20-F Item 12D), so value per share = value per ADR. The count includes Novo Holdings' A shares, which carry 10x votes but identical economic rights. Shrinking: the DKK 15bn 2026 buyback had purchased 35.4M B shares for DKK 9.94bn by 25 Sep; post-June repurchases are not netted from cash, so using the higher Q2 average count is consistent. | 4,436M |
| Market priceBackup price feed · as of 2026-10-20 12:38 UTC | $38.42 |
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What does Novo Nordisk A/S do?
What does it do?
Novo Nordisk A/S, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research and development, manufacture, and distribution of pharmaceutical products. It operates through two segments, Obesity and Diabetes Care, and Rare Disease. It operates in the Drug Manufacturers - General industry (Healthcare sector), headquartered in Denmark. The company employs roughly 66,700 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $46.0B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $43 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 42.5%), after a 82% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 35.3% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks stretched: carries modest debt (0.6× equity), may struggle to cover its short-term bills (0.9× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
NVO insider trading
We have no recent SEC Form 4 insider filings on file for Novo Nordisk A/S. Form 4 covers US-listed companies only.
Common questions
What is NVO's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) between $36.26 and $59.76 per share, versus a market price of $38.42. For a cyclical we value through the cycle we publish a range only (peer multiples and our researched mid-cycle DCF): where in the cycle the business sits decides where in that range it lands, and a single figure would claim we know that precisely.
Is NVO overvalued or undervalued?
At $38.42 the price sits inside our range of estimates. We don't call NVO overvalued or undervalued from a range. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for NVO?
A WACC of 7.8% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Novo Nordisk A/S stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair-value range for Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) is $36.26 – $59.76 against a market price of $38.42. Priced within our range. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair-value range for Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) is $36.26 – $59.76, built on a 7.8% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Novo Nordisk A/S stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 1.3% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 1.0% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $38.42. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) insider trading
We have no recent SEC Form 4 insider filings on file for Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO). Form 4 covers US-listed companies only.
Other ways into the coverage
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.