OLLI · Intrinsic value
Is Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI) overvalued or undervalued?
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI) trades at the delayed market price of $93.12 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of 6.4% a year for 5 years. TickerWorth's fair value is $99.77 a share (priced within our range of $45.06 – $131.98). We do not call it over- or undervalued from inside our range.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from SEC filings and market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
Is OLLI fairly valued?
- Fair value
- $99.77
- Market price
- $93.12
- Upside to fair value
- +7.1%
- Verdict
- Priced within our range of $45.06 – $131.98
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 6.4% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 7.1% a year on average over the same horizon.
What is OLLI's TickerWorth Score?
Middle of the pack — real strengths and real weaknesses
Compared with Consumer Defensive companies in US
Its strongest point: strong balance sheet. Its weakest: recent price trend has been weak.
- Value · 44 of 100
Cheaper than 44% of Consumer Defensive companies in US
- Price vs worth · 56 of 100
- Quality · 48 of 100
More profitable than 48% of Consumer Defensive companies in US
- Financial health · 82 of 100
Financially stronger than 82% of Consumer Defensive companies in US
- Growth · 61 of 100
Growing faster than 61% of Consumer Defensive companies in US
- Momentum · 32 of 100
Outperformed 32% of Consumer Defensive companies in US over the past year
Confidence: High confidence · Scored
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OLLI DCF valuation, input by input
TickerWorth's fair value for Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI) is $99.77 a share, against the delayed market price of $93.12 (priced within our range of $45.06 – $131.98). We do not call it over- or undervalued from inside our range. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
Read the full reasoning
The valuation discounts Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 6.9%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 82% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 6.4% annual revenue growth for OLLI. Our base case instead compounds to about 7.1% a year over the same forecast, so the market's implied growth is broadly in line with our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, OLLI's modeled DCF value ranges from about $65.12 to $223.03 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of OLLI's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind OLLI's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueOllie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. FY2025 10-K (accession 0001140361-26-010409): us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, FY2025 full year. | $2,649,200,000 |
| Base EBIT marginOllie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. FY2025 10-K (accession 0001140361-26-010409): us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss 297,665,000 / revenue 2,649,198,000 = 11.24%, FY2025. | 11.2% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 10% → 9% → 7% → 6% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.1% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 0.41 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesOllie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. FY2025 10-K (accession 0001140361-26-010409): WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding = 61,773,000 shares, FY2025. | 62M |
| Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 16:18 UTC | $93.11 |
Change OLLI's assumptions
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What does Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. do?
What does it do?
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. operates as a retailer of closeout merchandise and excess inventory in the United States. It operates in the Discount Stores industry (Consumer Defensive sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 6,500 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $2.8B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $11 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 10.8%), after a 41% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 9.8% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks mixed: carries modest debt (0.4× equity), comfortably covers its short-term bills (2.2× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
Who at OLLI filed insider trades?
| Date | Insider | Relationship | What happened | Value | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zender Christopher | EVP, COO | Option exercise | — | Form 4 for Zender Christopher (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Zender Christopher | EVP, COO | Shares withheld (tax) | $24,123.06 | Form 4 for Zender Christopher (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| HENDRICKSON THOMAS | Director | Gift | — | Form 4 for HENDRICKSON THOMAS (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| HENDRICKSON THOMAS | Director | Gift | — | Form 4 for HENDRICKSON THOMAS (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| SWYGERT JOHN W | Director, Executive Chairman | Open-market sale | $319,014.00 | Form 4 for SWYGERT JOHN W (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| SWYGERT JOHN W | Director, Executive Chairman | Option exercise | — | Form 4 for SWYGERT JOHN W (opens sec.gov in a new tab) |
A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans
Common questions
What is OLLI's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's blended fair value for Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI) is $99.77 per share, versus a market price of $93.12 (priced within our range of $45.06 – $131.98).
Is OLLI overvalued or undervalued?
Priced within our range of $45.06 – $131.98 at $93.12. We don't call OLLI overvalued or undervalued from a range. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for OLLI?
A WACC of 6.9% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Ollie's Bargain Outlet stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair value for Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI) is $99.77 against a market price of $93.12. Our read: Priced within our range of $45.06 – $131.98. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair value for Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI) is $99.77, built on a 6.9% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Ollie's Bargain Outlet stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 6.4% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 7.1% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $93.12. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI): Zender Christopher, EVP, COO, option exercise on 2026-07-29. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.