Is Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) overvalued or undervalued?

At a recent price of $254.55, Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) trades 44% above TickerWorth's blended fair value of $141.97 per share. For this company that blend leans on peer multiples: our discounted-cash-flow model holds margins flat and fades growth toward a long-run rate, which systematically understates a business growing this fast, so its figure (about $48.17) is shown as a reference beside the range rather than blended into it. Our estimate sits below the market — read that as a statement about how the market prices ONTO against comparable companies, not as a finding that it is overvalued on cash flow. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.

The valuation discounts Onto Innovation Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 11.7%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 69% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.

Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — ONTO would need sustained revenue growth of more than 25%/yr to justify today's price, against the roughly 14.9% average our base case assumes. We don't quote a precise figure here, because past about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative: it solves for revenue growth alone, holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed, so a price well above our fair value has nowhere to go but growth. The honest reading is that the price implies growth this model can't reconcile — not that we forecast it.

Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, ONTO's modeled DCF value ranges from about $39.89 to $62.58 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.

How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Onto Innovation Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of ONTO's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.