ONTO · Intrinsic value
Is Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) overvalued or undervalued?
Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) trades at the delayed market price of $231.31 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. TickerWorth's fair value is $161.53 a share (43% above fair value), as of Oct 19, 2026. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from SEC filings and market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
Is ONTO overvalued?
- Fair value
- $161.53
- Market price
- $231.31
- Downside to fair value
- 30.2%
- Verdict
- 43% above fair value
Reverse DCF, on our cash-flow model rather than the fair value above: Today's price implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. Above about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative. It solves for revenue growth alone — holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed — so a price well above our cash-flow model's value has nowhere to go but growth, and the solver returns a rate the model can't reconcile. Read it as "the price implies growth we can't justify", not as a forecast.
What is ONTO's TickerWorth Score?
Middle of the pack — real strengths and real weaknesses
Compared with Technology companies in US
Its strongest point: growing quickly. Its weakest: looks expensive on the numbers.
- Value · 33 of 100
Cheaper than 33% of Technology companies in US
- Price vs worth · 26 of 100
- Quality · 53 of 100
More profitable than 53% of Technology companies in US
- Financial health · 69 of 100
Financially stronger than 69% of Technology companies in US
- Growth · 78 of 100
Growing faster than 78% of Technology companies in US
- Momentum · 57 of 100
Outperformed 57% of Technology companies in US over the past year
Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored
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ONTO DCF valuation: what the price assumes
At a recent price of $231.31, Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) trades 43% above TickerWorth's blended fair value of $161.53 per share. For this company that blend leans on peer multiples: our discounted-cash-flow model holds margins flat and fades growth toward a long-run rate, which systematically understates a business growing this fast, so its figure (about $48.39) is shown as a reference beside the range rather than blended into it. Our estimate sits below the market — read that as a statement about how the market prices ONTO against comparable companies, not as a finding that it is overvalued on cash flow. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
Read the full reasoning
The valuation discounts Onto Innovation Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 11.6%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 70% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — ONTO would need sustained revenue growth of more than 25%/yr to justify today's price, against about 14.7% a year compounded in our base case. We don't quote a precise figure here, because past about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative: it solves for revenue growth alone, holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed, so a price well above our fair value has nowhere to go but growth. The honest reading is that the price implies growth this model can't reconcile — not that we forecast it.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, ONTO's modeled DCF value ranges from about $40.03 to $62.99 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Onto Innovation Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of ONTO's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind ONTO's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueONTO INNOVATION INC. FY2024 10-K (accession 0001193125-26-066937): us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, FY2024 full year. | $1,005,260,000 |
| Base EBIT marginONTO INNOVATION INC. FY2024 10-K (accession 0001193125-26-066937): us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss 132,927,000 / revenue 1,005,263,000 = 13.22%, FY2024. | 13.2% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 26% → 20% → 15% → 9% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 4.8% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 1.59 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesONTO INNOVATION INC. FY2024 10-K (accession 0001193125-26-066937): WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding = 49,273,000 shares, FY2024. | 49M |
| Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 16:19 UTC | $231.31 |
Change ONTO's assumptions
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What does Onto Innovation Inc. do?
What does it do?
Onto Innovation Inc. engages in the design, development, manufacture, and support of process control tools that perform macro-defect inspection and metrology in the United States, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, China, Southeast Asia, Asia, and Europe. It operates in the Semiconductor Equipment & Materials industry (Technology sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 1,867 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $1.1B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $23 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 23.0%), after a 55% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 11.8% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks solid: carries modest debt (0.8× equity), comfortably covers its short-term bills (9.7× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
Who at ONTO filed insider trades?
| Date | Insider | Relationship | What happened | Value | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MILLER DAVID BRIAN | Director | Open-market sale | $600,000.00 | Form 4 for MILLER DAVID BRIAN (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| ROBERTS BRIAN K | Chief Financial Officer | Shares withheld (tax) | $824,487.45 | Form 4 for ROBERTS BRIAN K (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Chen Shirley | Senior Vice President of Custo | Shares withheld (tax) | $385,897.80 | Form 4 for Chen Shirley (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Lynch Susan D | Director | Open-market sale | $302,300.00 | Form 4 for Lynch Susan D (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Su May | Director | Grant / award | — | Form 4 for Su May (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| SEAMS CHRISTOPHER A | Director | Grant / award | — | Form 4 for SEAMS CHRISTOPHER A (opens sec.gov in a new tab) |
A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans
Common questions
What is ONTO's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's blended fair value for Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) is $161.53 per share, versus a market price of $231.31 (43% above fair value).
Is ONTO overvalued or undervalued?
Our cash-flow model understates a business growing this fast, so we don't call ONTO overvalued on it. Against a blend that leans on peer multiples, the price of $231.31 sits 43% above our estimate. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for ONTO?
A WACC of 11.6% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Onto Innovation stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair value for Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) is $161.53 against a market price of $231.31. Our read: 43% above fair value. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Onto Innovation (ONTO) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair value for Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) is $161.53, built on a 11.6% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Onto Innovation stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. Above about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative. It solves for revenue growth alone — holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed — so a price well above our cash-flow model's value has nowhere to go but growth, and the solver returns a rate the model can't reconcile. Read it as "the price implies growth we can't justify", not as a forecast. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $231.31. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Onto Innovation (ONTO) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO): MILLER DAVID BRIAN, Director, open-market sale on 2026-09-29. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.
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Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.