What is ORCL's intrinsic value?

TickerWorth's blended fair value for Oracle Corporation (ORCL) is $93.91 per share, versus a market price of $128.23 (priced within our range of $64.88 – $146.70).

Is ORCL overvalued or undervalued?

Priced within our range of $64.88 – $146.70 at $128.23. We don't call ORCL overvalued or undervalued from a range. This is an educational estimate, not advice.

What discount rate is used for ORCL?

A WACC of 11.9% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.

Is Oracle stock undervalued?

TickerWorth's fair value for Oracle Corporation (ORCL) is $93.91 against a market price of $128.23. Our read: Priced within our range of $64.88 – $146.70. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.

Oracle (ORCL) DCF valuation and fair value

Our fair value for Oracle Corporation (ORCL) is $93.91, built on a 11.9% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.

Oracle (ORCL) insider trading

The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Oracle Corporation (ORCL): RUSCKOWSKI STEPHEN H, Director, open-market buy on 2026-09-29. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.

ORCL · Intrinsic value

Is Oracle Corporation (ORCL) overvalued or undervalued?

Name: Oracle Corporation (ORCL) DCF intrinsic value
Creator: TickerWorth

Oracle Corporation (ORCL) trades at the delayed market price of $128.23 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. TickerWorth's fair value is $93.91 a share (priced within our range of $64.88 – $146.70). We do not call it over- or undervalued from inside our range. It is a model estimate; every input is sourced below.

Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from a hand-researched model · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made

Open full ORCL analysis

Is ORCL fairly valued?

Fair value: $93.91
Market price: $128.23
Downside to fair value: 26.8%
Verdict: Priced within our range of $64.88 – $146.70

Price as of 19 Oct 2026, 13:15 UTC · Prices are delayed.

Fair value against the delayed market price: Priced within our range of $64.88 – $146.70.

Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. Above about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative. It solves for revenue growth alone — holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed — so a price well above our cash-flow model's value has nowhere to go but growth, and the solver returns a rate the model can't reconcile. Read it as "the price implies growth we can't justify", not as a forecast.

What is ORCL's TickerWorth Score?

D44/100

Scores lower than most companies we compare it with

Compared with Technology companies in US

Its strongest point: a profitable, high-quality business. Its weakest: balance sheet looks stretched.

Value · 50 of 100
Cheaper than 50% of Technology companies in US
Price vs worth · 29 of 100
Quality · 79 of 100
More profitable than 79% of Technology companies in US
Financial health · 16 of 100
Financially stronger than 16% of Technology companies in US
Growth · 54 of 100
Growing faster than 54% of Technology companies in US
Momentum · 4 of 100
Outperformed 4% of Technology companies in US over the past year

Confidence: High confidence · Scored 19 Oct 2026, 13:15 UTC

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Where the numbers come from

Hand-researched model

What the modeller flagged

YEAR-1 FCF IS FAR BELOW REPORTED, AND THE SIGN IS THE STORY: the engine's FY2027 free cash flow is about -$46B against Oracle's FY2026 reported -$23.7B (the validator prints this as '+95%' because both figures are negative - the model is ~$22B MORE negative). The bridge: gross capex rises from $55.7B to $92.5B (+$36.8B), partly offset by higher operating profit; and the model excludes customer prepayments from cash flow (they sit in net debt) - Oracle's own FY2027 'net cash capex' of <= $70B is ~$22B lower than gross for exactly that reason. External cross-check: S&P forecast FY2027 free operating cash flow of about -$42B when it downgraded Oracle (2026-07-09). My explicit path is about -$51B (lower D&A add-back in the first year).
TERMINAL VALUE IS ~84% OF ENTERPRISE VALUE - above the 75% danger line. The five explicit years are dominated by the build (Year 1 alone is -$46B), so almost all of the value is the steady state after FY2031. Treat '$64.88' as the midpoint of a wide range; the sensitivity grid is the honest output.
THE DISCOUNT RATE DOES MOST OF THE WORK. WACC is 11.86% because the published beta is 1.73. At a beta of 1.2 (WACC ~9.8%) the same cash flows are worth ~$101/share; at 1.0, ~$121; only at ~0.83 (WACC ~8.4%) do they reach today's price. I did not normalize beta (reasons in the beta note), but a reader who thinks Oracle's risk is that of a contracted utility-like landlord rather than a levered AI bet should mentally move this number up a lot.
CAPEX/D&A RATIOS ARE CALIBRATED, NOT OBSERVED (see special_cases). If FY2028 capex is ~$100B rather than ~$80B, the value falls about $5/share; if the build stops after FY2027 (~$60B in FY2028), it rises about $5/share. If GPUs prove economically obsolete in 4 years rather than the 6 Oracle depreciates them over, steady-state capex rises ~5-8 points of revenue and the value falls by $29-46/share (capex 35% -> $36.21; 38% -> $19.01) - the largest single downside sensitivity.
COUNTERPARTY CONCENTRATION IS NOT MODELED AS A PROBABILITY. S&P says OpenAI is roughly half of Oracle's RPO. The revenue path assumes contracts are honored in full on schedule (with a haircut vs management's $225B FY2030 target). A renegotiation or delay at one customer would hit revenue, utilization and the value of assets already built.
MANAGEMENT IS MORE BULLISH THAN THIS MODEL. October-2025 analyst-day targets were $225B FY2030 revenue and $21 non-GAAP EPS; this model has $189B and roughly 25% less operating profit in FY2030. Management did not repeat those targets on the Q1 FY2027 call and declined to give a date for positive free cash flow ('We have not given a particular time frame on that yet').
SBC IS LARGE AND EXPENSED: $4,811M in FY2026 (7.1% of revenue), $1,127M in Q1 FY2027. It stays inside GAAP EBIT and is not added back.

ORCL DCF valuation, input by input

TickerWorth's fair value for Oracle Corporation (ORCL) is $93.91 a share, against the delayed market price of $128.23 (priced within our range of $64.88 – $146.70). We do not call it over- or undervalued from inside our range. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.

Read the full reasoning

One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values ORCL at about $64.88 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.

The valuation discounts Oracle Corporation's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 11.9%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 84% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.

Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — ORCL would need sustained revenue growth of more than 25%/yr to justify today's price. We don't quote a precise figure here, because past about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative: it solves for revenue growth alone, holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed, so a price well above our fair value has nowhere to go but growth. The honest reading is that the price implies growth this model can't reconcile — not that we forecast it.

Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, ORCL's modeled DCF value ranges from about $40.19 to $107.57 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.

How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Oracle Corporation would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of ORCL's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.

Every input behind ORCL's DCF

Input	Value	Source
Base-year revenueOracle FY2026 10-K (accession 0001193125-26-277521, filed 2026-06-22): us-gaap:Revenues, FY2026 (June 2025 - May 2026) = $67,357M, +17.3% on FY2025's $57,399M. Ties to the Q4 FY2026 release ($67.4B; Cloud $33,989M of which Cloud Infrastructure $18,101M, Software $24,541M, Hardware $3,084M, Services $5,743M). UNCHANGED as the base - the new quarter belongs in the forecast. CROSS-CHECK: TTM revenue through 2026-08-31 is $71,777M (16,058 + 17,190 + 19,184 + 19,345), and Q1 FY2027 alone grew 30% to $19,345M with Cloud Infrastructure +121% to $7,388M.	$67,357,000,000	Oracle FY2026 10-K (accession 0001193125-26-277521, filed 2026-06-22): us-gaap:Revenues, FY2026 (June 2025 - May 2026) = $67,357M, +17.3% on FY2025's $57,399M. Ties to the Q4 FY2026 release ($67.4B; Cloud $33,989M of which Cloud Infrastructure $18,101M, Software $24,541M, Hardware $3,084M, Services $5,743M). UNCHANGED as the base - the new quarter belongs in the forecast. CROSS-CHECK: TTM revenue through 2026-08-31 is $71,777M (16,058 + 17,190 + 19,184 + 19,345), and Q1 FY2027 alone grew 30% to $19,345M with Cloud Infrastructure +121% to $7,388M.
Base EBIT marginOracle FY2026 10-K (accession 0001193125-26-277521, filed 2026-06-22): GAAP operating income $20,606M / revenue $67,357M = 30.59% (us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss). This is AFTER $4,811M of stock-based compensation, $1,671M of intangible amortization and restructuring charges - i.e. GAAP, not Oracle's non-GAAP 42%-style figure. Reference only; cash flows use forecast.ebit_margin. CROSS-CHECK: Q1 FY2027 GAAP margin was 34.8% ($6,728M / $19,345M), helped by S&M -12% and amortization -52% YoY; TTM GAAP margin is 32.1% ($23,057M / $71,777M).	30.6%	Oracle FY2026 10-K (accession 0001193125-26-277521, filed 2026-06-22): GAAP operating income $20,606M / revenue $67,357M = 30.59% (us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss). This is AFTER $4,811M of stock-based compensation, $1,671M of intangible amortization and restructuring charges - i.e. GAAP, not Oracle's non-GAAP 42%-style figure. Reference only; cash flows use forecast.ebit_margin. CROSS-CHECK: Q1 FY2027 GAAP margin was 34.8% ($6,728M / $19,345M), helped by S&M -12% and amortization -52% YoY; TTM GAAP margin is 32.1% ($23,057M / $71,777M).
Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast	34% → 40% → 27% → 18% → 10%	ESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast
Risk-free rateUS 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. House input shared by every model.	5.2%	US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. House input shared by every model.
Betayfinance / Yahoo Finance beta (5Y monthly): Published 5Y-monthly beta 1.732, used UNNORMALIZED. Considered normalizing and decided against it, in both directions: (a) downward, toward Oracle's old ~1.0 software beta - rejected, because the business has genuinely changed into a levered, capex-heavy AI landlord with net debt rising and a BBB- rating, and the stock fell roughly 60% from its high; (b) upward - the 60-month window still includes 2021-24, when Oracle was a sleepy software stock, so the forward beta may be HIGHER than 1.73. Neither adjustment is evidenced well enough to override the published figure. Sensitivity: every 0.1 of beta moves the value about $5-6/share; at a beta of 1.2 the value is ~$101 and at 1.0 ~$121 (nearly double), and it takes a beta of ~0.83 (WACC ~8.4%) to reach today's price - the cleanest single statement of how much of this answer is the discount rate.	1.73	yfinance / Yahoo Finance beta (5Y monthly): Published 5Y-monthly beta 1.732, used UNNORMALIZED. Considered normalizing and decided against it, in both directions: (a) downward, toward Oracle's old ~1.0 software beta - rejected, because the business has genuinely changed into a levered, capex-heavy AI landlord with net debt rising and a BBB- rating, and the stock fell roughly 60% from its high; (b) upward - the 60-month window still includes 2021-24, when Oracle was a sleepy software stock, so the forward beta may be HIGHER than 1.73. Neither adjustment is evidenced well enough to override the published figure. Sensitivity: every 0.1 of beta moves the value about $5-6/share; at a beta of 1.2 the value is ~$101 and at 1.0 ~$121 (nearly double), and it takes a beta of ~0.83 (WACC ~8.4%) to reach today's price - the cleanest single statement of how much of this answer is the discount rate.
Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability. For Oracle it is a statement about what a mature AI-infrastructure-plus-software business does after FY2031: a growing installed base of contracted compute, offset by a legacy license/support base that is shrinking ~1-3% a year in constant currency. Must stay well below the 11.86% WACC; it does.	2.5%	ESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability. For Oracle it is a statement about what a mature AI-infrastructure-plus-software business does after FY2031: a growing installed base of contracted compute, offset by a legacy license/support base that is shrinking ~1-3% a year in constant currency. Must stay well below the 11.86% WACC; it does.
Diluted sharesOracle Q1 FY2027 10-Q (accession 0001193125-26-389274, filed 2026-09-11): DELIBERATE DEPARTURE FROM THE HOUSE RULE, in the conservative direction. The house uses the quarter's weighted-average diluted count, which for Q1 FY2027 is 3,000M. But Oracle sold ~141M new shares through its $20B at-the-market program DURING the quarter, so the weighted average only partly counts them while ALL $19.9B of the proceeds sits in the 2026-08-31 cash balance used in net debt. Pairing year-end cash with a mid-quarter share count would overstate value per share. Used instead: 3,023.7M shares outstanding at 2026-09-07 (10-Q cover) + 34M dilutive employee awards (the Q1 treasury-method increment) = 3,057.7M. The mandatory convertible preferred is NOT added here (its $5.0B liquidation value is deducted in net debt instead - one or the other, never both). Effect vs 3,000M: about -$1.25/share.	3,058M	Oracle Q1 FY2027 10-Q (accession 0001193125-26-389274, filed 2026-09-11): DELIBERATE DEPARTURE FROM THE HOUSE RULE, in the conservative direction. The house uses the quarter's weighted-average diluted count, which for Q1 FY2027 is 3,000M. But Oracle sold ~141M new shares through its $20B at-the-market program DURING the quarter, so the weighted average only partly counts them while ALL $19.9B of the proceeds sits in the 2026-08-31 cash balance used in net debt. Pairing year-end cash with a mid-quarter share count would overstate value per share. Used instead: 3,023.7M shares outstanding at 2026-09-07 (10-Q cover) + 34M dilutive employee awards (the Q1 treasury-method increment) = 3,057.7M. The mandatory convertible preferred is NOT added here (its $5.0B liquidation value is deducted in net debt instead - one or the other, never both). Effect vs 3,000M: about -$1.25/share.
Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 13:15 UTC	$128.23	Delayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 13:15 UTC

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What does Oracle Corporation do?

What does it do?

Oracle Corporation offers products and services that build, run and support enterprise information technology frameworks worldwide. Its Oracle cloud software as a service offering includes various cloud software applications, including Oracle Fusion cloud enterprise resource planning ERP, Oracle Fusion cloud enterprise performance management EPM, Oracle Fusion cloud supply chain and manufacturing management SCM, Oracle Fusion cloud human capital management HCM, and NetSuite applications suite, Oracle Health applications, as well as Oracle Fusion Sales, Service, and Marketing. It operates in the Software - Infrastructure industry (Technology sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 141,000 people.

How does it make money?

The business turns $71.8B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $36 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 35.6%), after a 64% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 26.4% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.

Is it financially healthy?

Financially it looks stretched: carries heavy debt (2.5× equity), can just cover its short-term bills (1.2× current ratio), and is currently profitable.

Who at ORCL filed insider trades?

Recent insider filings for Oracle Corporation
Date	Insider	Relationship	What happened	Value	Filing
29 Sept 2026	RUSCKOWSKI STEPHEN H	Director	Open-market buy	$3,483,800.00	Form 4 for RUSCKOWSKI STEPHEN H (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
22 Sept 2026	Smith Maria	EVP, Chief Accounting Officer	Open-market sale	$399,122.70	Form 4 for Smith Maria (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
22 Sept 2026	Sicilia Michael D.	Chief Executive Officer	Open-market sale	$3,420,173.58	Form 4 for Sicilia Michael D. (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
21 Sept 2026	Smith Maria	EVP, Chief Accounting Officer	Shares withheld (tax)	$919,610.30	Form 4 for Smith Maria (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
21 Sept 2026	Smith Maria	EVP, Chief Accounting Officer	Shares withheld (tax)	$424,378.75	Form 4 for Smith Maria (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
21 Sept 2026	Sicilia Michael D.	Chief Executive Officer	Shares withheld (tax)	$2,555,276.71	Form 4 for Sicilia Michael D. (opens sec.gov in a new tab)

A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans

Common questions

What is ORCL's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's blended fair value for Oracle Corporation (ORCL) is $93.91 per share, versus a market price of $128.23 (priced within our range of $64.88 – $146.70).
Is ORCL overvalued or undervalued?
Priced within our range of $64.88 – $146.70 at $128.23. We don't call ORCL overvalued or undervalued from a range. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for ORCL?
A WACC of 11.9% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Oracle stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair value for Oracle Corporation (ORCL) is $93.91 against a market price of $128.23. Our read: Priced within our range of $64.88 – $146.70. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Oracle (ORCL) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair value for Oracle Corporation (ORCL) is $93.91, built on a 11.9% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Oracle stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. Above about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative. It solves for revenue growth alone — holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed — so a price well above our cash-flow model's value has nowhere to go but growth, and the solver returns a rate the model can't reconcile. Read it as "the price implies growth we can't justify", not as a forecast. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $128.23. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Oracle (ORCL) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Oracle Corporation (ORCL): RUSCKOWSKI STEPHEN H, Director, open-market buy on 2026-09-29. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.