ORG.AX · Intrinsic value
Is Origin Energy Limited (ORG.AX) overvalued or undervalued?
Origin Energy Limited (ORG.AX) trades at the delayed market price of A$12.06 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of 0.6% a year for 5 years. TickerWorth's fair value is A$10.02 a share (priced within our range of A$6.63 – A$12.40). We do not call it over- or undervalued from inside our range.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
Is ORG.AX fairly valued?
- Fair value
- A$10.02
- Market price
- A$12.06
- Downside to fair value
- 16.9%
- Verdict
- Priced within our range of A$6.63 – A$12.40
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 0.6% a year for 5 years; our model assumes −3.1% a year on average over the same horizon.
What is ORG.AX's TickerWorth Score?
Middle of the pack — real strengths and real weaknesses
Compared with Utilities companies in Australia
Its strongest point: strong balance sheet. Its weakest: profitability is weak.
- Value · 68 of 100
Cheaper than 68% of Utilities companies worldwide
- Price vs worth · 36 of 100
- Quality · 32 of 100
More profitable than 32% of Utilities companies worldwide
- Financial health · 84 of 100
Financially stronger than 84% of Utilities companies worldwide
- Growth · 31 of 100
Growing faster than 31% of Utilities companies worldwide
- Momentum · 76 of 100
Outperformed 76% of Utilities companies worldwide over the past year
Confidence: High confidence · Scored
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ORG.AX DCF valuation, input by input
TickerWorth's fair value for Origin Energy Limited (ORG.AX) is A$10.02 a share, against the delayed market price of A$12.06 (priced within our range of A$6.63 – A$12.40). We do not call it over- or undervalued from inside our range. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
Read the full reasoning
One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values ORG.AX at about A$8.70 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.
The valuation discounts Origin Energy Limited's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 7.3%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 79% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 0.6% annual revenue growth for ORG.AX. Our base case instead compounds to about -3.1% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in materially faster growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, ORG.AX's modeled DCF value ranges from about A$5.16 to A$19.99 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Origin Energy Limited would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of ORG.AX's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind ORG.AX's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueLive feed — totalRevenue (TTM) | A$15,612,000,000 |
| Base EBIT marginComputed — trailing operatingMargins, held roughly flat | 9.5% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | -10% → -6% → -3% → 0% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.3% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 0.50 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesLive feed — sharesOutstanding | 1,723M |
| Market priceLast known price · as of 2026-10-19 13:19 UTC | A$12.06 |
Change ORG.AX's assumptions
The discount-rate dial and the editable model
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What does Origin Energy Limited do?
What does it do?
Origin Energy Limited, an integrated energy company, engages in the exploration and production of natural gas, electricity generation, wholesale and retail sale of electricity and gas, and sale of liquefied natural gas in Australia and internationally. The company operates through Energy Markets, Share of Octopus Energy, and Integrated Gas segments. It operates in the Utilities - Diversified industry (Utilities sector), headquartered in Australia. The company employs roughly 5,369 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $15.6B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $9 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 9.5%), after a 22% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 10.1% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks mixed: carries modest debt (0.5× equity), can just cover its short-term bills (1.1× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
ORG.AX insider trading
Insider filings are available for US-listed companies only.
Common questions
What is ORG.AX's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's blended fair value for Origin Energy Limited (ORG.AX) is A$10.02 per share, versus a market price of A$12.06 (priced within our range of A$6.63 – A$12.40).
Is ORG.AX overvalued or undervalued?
Priced within our range of A$6.63 – A$12.40 at A$12.06. We don't call ORG.AX overvalued or undervalued from a range. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for ORG.AX?
A WACC of 7.3% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Origin Energy stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair value for Origin Energy Limited (ORG.AX) is A$10.02 against a market price of A$12.06. Our read: Priced within our range of A$6.63 – A$12.40. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Origin Energy (ORG.AX) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair value for Origin Energy Limited (ORG.AX) is A$10.02, built on a 7.3% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Origin Energy stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 0.6% a year for 5 years; our model assumes −3.1% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of A$12.06. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Origin Energy (ORG.AX) insider trading
We have no recent SEC Form 4 insider filings on file for Origin Energy Limited (ORG.AX). Form 4 covers US-listed companies only.
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.