ORLY · Intrinsic value
Is O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) overvalued or undervalued?
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) trades at the delayed market price of $89.06 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of 11.3% a year for 5 years. TickerWorth's fair value is $76.02 a share (17% above fair value), as of Oct 19, 2026. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from SEC filings and market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
Is ORLY overvalued?
- Fair value
- $76.02
- Market price
- $89.06
- Downside to fair value
- 14.6%
- Verdict
- 17% above fair value
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 11.3% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 6.3% a year on average over the same horizon.
What is ORLY's TickerWorth Score?
Expensive vs our estimate — the business scores well
Compared with Consumer Cyclical companies in US
Its strongest point: a profitable, high-quality business. Its weakest: looks expensive on the numbers.
- Value · 25 of 100
Cheaper than 25% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
- Price vs worth · 38 of 100
- Quality · 79 of 100
More profitable than 79% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
- Financial health · 22 of 100
Financially stronger than 22% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
- Growth · 47 of 100
Growing faster than 47% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
- Momentum · 52 of 100
Outperformed 52% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US over the past year
Confidence: High confidence · Scored
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ORLY DCF valuation: what the price assumes
At a recent price of $89.06, O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) trades 17% above TickerWorth's blended fair value of $76.02 per share — a discounted-cash-flow model cross-checked against peer multiples and asset value — meaning the market currently prices ORLY overvalued vs our estimate of what the business is intrinsically worth. Our fair value sits below the market, an implied -14.6% move to close the gap if the business performs in line with our assumptions. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation — the value moves with the inputs, which you can test yourself using the WACC slider below.
Read the full reasoning
One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values ORLY at about $69.97 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.
The valuation discounts O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 7.4%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 80% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 11.3% annual revenue growth for ORLY. Our base case instead compounds to about 6.3% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in materially faster growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, ORLY's modeled DCF value ranges from about $47.17 to $139.06 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of ORLY's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind ORLY's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueO REILLY AUTOMOTIVE INC FY2025 10-K (accession 0000898173-26-000009): us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, FY2025 full year. | $17,781,990,000 |
| Base EBIT marginO REILLY AUTOMOTIVE INC FY2025 10-K (accession 0000898173-26-000009): us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss 3,460,612,000 / revenue 17,781,992,000 = 19.46%, FY2025. | 19.5% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 9% → 8% → 6% → 5% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.3% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 0.52 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesO REILLY AUTOMOTIVE INC FY2025 10-K (accession 0000898173-26-000009): WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding = 855,919,000 shares, FY2025. | 856M |
| Market priceLast known price · as of 2026-10-19 21:42 UTC | $89.06 |
Change ORLY's assumptions
The discount-rate dial and the editable model
ProChange growth, margin and WACC yourself — Pro (7-day free trial, card required).
What does O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. do?
What does it do?
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer and supplier of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment, and accessories in the United States, Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Canada. The company offers new and remanufactured automotive hard parts and maintenance items, such as alternators, batteries, brake system components, belts, chassis parts, driveline parts, engine parts, fuel pumps, hoses, starters, temperature control, water pumps, antifreeze, appearance products, engine additives, filters, fluids, lighting products, and oil and wiper blades; and accessories, including floor mats, seat covers, and truck accessories. It operates in the Auto Parts industry (Consumer Cyclical sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 95,822 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $17.8B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $20 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 20.2%), after a 52% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 14.3% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks stretched: may struggle to cover its short-term bills (0.8× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
Who at ORLY filed insider trades?
| Date | Insider | Relationship | What happened | Value | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HENDRICKSON THOMAS | Director | Open-market sale | $87,831.10 | Form 4 for HENDRICKSON THOMAS (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| SASTRE MARIA | Director | Open-market sale | $183,707.40 | Form 4 for SASTRE MARIA (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| MANCINI CHRISTOPHER ANDREW | SVP OF PROF SALES & STORE OPS | Option exercise | $50,130.00 | Form 4 for MANCINI CHRISTOPHER ANDREW (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| MANCINI CHRISTOPHER ANDREW | SVP OF PROF SALES & STORE OPS | Open-market sale | $279,000.00 | Form 4 for MANCINI CHRISTOPHER ANDREW (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| HENDRICKSON THOMAS | Director | Open-market sale | $105,984.00 | Form 4 for HENDRICKSON THOMAS (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| DUMAS ROBERT ALLEN | SVP OF EASTERN STORE OPS/SALES | Option exercise | $164,352.00 | Form 4 for DUMAS ROBERT ALLEN (opens sec.gov in a new tab) |
A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans
Common questions
What is ORLY's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's blended fair value for O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) is $76.02 per share, versus a market price of $89.06 (17% above fair value).
Is ORLY overvalued or undervalued?
On our blended fair value ORLY looks overvalued vs fair value at $89.06. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for ORLY?
A WACC of 7.4% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is O'Reilly Automotive stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair value for O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) is $76.02 against a market price of $89.06. Our read: 17% above fair value. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair value for O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) is $76.02, built on a 7.4% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into O'Reilly Automotive stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 11.3% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 6.3% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $89.06. A model estimate, not investment advice.
O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY): HENDRICKSON THOMAS, Director, open-market sale on 2026-08-28. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.
Stocks below our fair value instead
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.