PARR · Intrinsic value
Is Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR) overvalued or undervalued?
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR) trades at the delayed market price of $83.42 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of 0.9% a year for 5 years. TickerWorth's fair value is $191.16 a share (56% below fair value), as of Oct 19, 2026. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from SEC filings and market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
Is PARR undervalued?
- Fair value
- $191.16
- Market price
- $83.42
- Upside to fair value
- +129.2%
- Verdict
- 56% below fair value
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 0.9% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 16.6% a year on average over the same horizon.
What is PARR's TickerWorth Score?
Scores higher than almost every company we compare it with
Compared with Energy companies in US
Its strongest point: trades below our estimate of what it's worth.
- Value · 75 of 100
Cheaper than 75% of Energy companies in US
- Price vs worth · 100 of 100
- Quality · 50 of 100
More profitable than 50% of Energy companies in US
- Financial health · 62 of 100
Financially stronger than 62% of Energy companies in US
- Growth · 66 of 100
Growing faster than 66% of Energy companies in US
- Momentum · 83 of 100
Outperformed 83% of Energy companies in US over the past year
Confidence: High confidence · Scored
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PARR DCF valuation: where the gap comes from
At a recent price of $83.42, Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR) trades 56% below TickerWorth's blended fair value of $191.16 per share — a discounted-cash-flow model cross-checked against peer multiples and asset value — meaning the market currently prices PARR undervalued vs our estimate of what the business is intrinsically worth. Our fair value sits above the market, an implied +129.2% move to close the gap if the business performs in line with our assumptions. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation — the value moves with the inputs, which you can test yourself using the WACC slider below.
Read the full reasoning
One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values PARR at about $186.57 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.
The valuation discounts Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 8.0%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 76% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 0.9% annual revenue growth for PARR. Our base case instead compounds to about 16.6% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in slower growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, PARR's modeled DCF value ranges from about $129.61 to $337.53 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of PARR's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind PARR's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenuePar Pacific Holdings, Inc. FY2025 10-K (accession 0000821483-26-000005): us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, FY2025 full year. | $7,464,650,000 |
| Base EBIT marginPar Pacific Holdings, Inc. FY2025 10-K (accession 0000821483-26-000005): us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss 538,758,000 / revenue 7,464,650,000 = 7.22%, FY2025. | 7.2% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 30% → 24% → 17% → 10% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.1% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 0.75 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesPar Pacific Holdings, Inc. FY2025 10-K (accession 0000821483-26-000005): WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding = 51,591,000 shares, FY2025. | 52M |
| Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 12:29 UTC | $83.42 |
Change PARR's assumptions
The discount-rate dial and the editable model
ProChange growth, margin and WACC yourself — Pro (7-day free trial, card required).
What does Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. do?
What does it do?
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc., an energy company, provides renewable and conventional fuels in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Refining, Retail, and Logistics. It operates in the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing industry (Energy sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 1,758 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $8.6B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $21 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 21.1%), after a 23% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 9.9% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks mixed: carries modest debt (0.6× equity), comfortably covers its short-term bills (1.8× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
Who at PARR filed insider trades?
| Date | Insider | Relationship | What happened | Value | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANASTASIO CURT | Director | Other acquisition/disposition | $57,675.68 | Form 4 for ANASTASIO CURT (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| ANASTASIO CURT | Director | Grant / award | $27,481.28 | Form 4 for ANASTASIO CURT (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Clossey Timothy | Director | Grant / award | $27,481.28 | Form 4 for Clossey Timothy (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Davidson Phillip S | Director | Other acquisition/disposition | $33,695.20 | Form 4 for Davidson Phillip S (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Hatcher Katherine | Director | Grant / award | $27,481.28 | Form 4 for Hatcher Katherine (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Stumbo Jerry Dale | EVP, Refining and Logistics | Grant / award | $2,000,008.47 | Form 4 for Stumbo Jerry Dale (opens sec.gov in a new tab) |
A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans
Common questions
What is PARR's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's blended fair value for Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR) is $191.16 per share, versus a market price of $83.42 (56% below fair value).
Is PARR overvalued or undervalued?
On our blended fair value PARR looks undervalued vs fair value at $83.42. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for PARR?
A WACC of 8.0% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Par Pacific stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair value for Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR) is $191.16 against a market price of $83.42. Our read: 56% below fair value. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Par Pacific (PARR) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair value for Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR) is $191.16, built on a 8.0% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Par Pacific stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 0.9% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 16.6% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $83.42. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Par Pacific (PARR) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR): ANASTASIO CURT, Director, other acquisition/disposition on 2026-10-05. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.
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Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.