PAYP · Intrinsic value
Is PayPay Corporation (PAYP) overvalued or undervalued?
PayPay Corporation (PAYP) trades at the delayed market price of $15.96 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of 18.9% a year for 5 years. TickerWorth's fair value is $13.10 a share (22% above fair value), as of Oct 19, 2026. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
Is PAYP overvalued?
- Fair value
- $13.10
- Market price
- $15.96
- Downside to fair value
- 17.9%
- Verdict
- 22% above fair value
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 18.9% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 15.2% a year on average over the same horizon.
What is PAYP's TickerWorth Score?
Middle of the pack — real strengths and real weaknesses
Compared with Technology companies in US
Its strongest point: looks cheap on the numbers. Its weakest: balance sheet looks stretched.
- Value · 90 of 100
Cheaper than 90% of Technology companies in US
- Price vs worth · 36 of 100
- Quality · 74 of 100
More profitable than 74% of Technology companies in US
- Financial health · 12 of 100
Financially stronger than 12% of Technology companies in US
- Growth · 40 of 100
Growing faster than 40% of Technology companies in US
- Momentum · 36 of 100
Outperformed 36% of Technology companies in US over the past year
Confidence: High confidence · Scored
Get the Undervalued Company of the Week.
PAYP DCF valuation: what the price assumes
At a recent price of $15.96, PayPay Corporation (PAYP) trades 22% above TickerWorth's blended fair value of $13.10 per share — a discounted-cash-flow model cross-checked against peer multiples and asset value — meaning the market currently prices PAYP overvalued vs our estimate of what the business is intrinsically worth. Our fair value sits below the market, an implied -17.9% move to close the gap if the business performs in line with our assumptions. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation — the value moves with the inputs, which you can test yourself using the WACC slider below.
Read the full reasoning
The valuation discounts PayPay Corporation's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 8.8%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 77% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 18.9% annual revenue growth for PAYP. Our base case instead compounds to about 15.2% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in materially faster growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, PAYP's modeled DCF value ranges from about $7.83 to $25.29 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what PayPay Corporation would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of PAYP's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind PAYP's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueLive feed — totalRevenue (TTM) | $2,544,150,000 |
| Base EBIT marginComputed — reported operating margin exceeded the EBITDA margin (impossible); held to 23.3% so D&A stays positive | 23.3% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 27% → 21% → 16% → 10% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.1% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 1.10 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesLive feed — sharesOutstanding | 677M |
| Market priceLast known price · as of 2026-10-19 19:25 UTC | $15.96 |
Change PAYP's assumptions
The discount-rate dial and the editable model
ProChange growth, margin and WACC yourself — Pro (7-day free trial, card required).
What does PayPay Corporation do?
What does it do?
PayPay Corporation, a digital finance platform, provides payment and financial services in Japan. It operates through two segments, Payment and Financial Service. It operates in the Software - Infrastructure industry (Technology sector), headquartered in Japan. The company employs roughly 1,994 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $401.6B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $27 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 27.4%), after a 54% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 30.6% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks stretched: carries moderate debt (1.7× equity), may struggle to cover its short-term bills (1.0× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
Who at PAYP filed insider trades?
| Date | Insider | Relationship | What happened | Value | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kagechika Wataru | See Remarks | Option exercise | $27,574.00 | Form 4 for Kagechika Wataru (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Yasuda Masamichi | See Remarks | Option exercise | $38,928.00 | Form 4 for Yasuda Masamichi (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Nakayama Ichiro | Director, See Remarks | Option exercise | $21,086.00 | Form 4 for Nakayama Ichiro (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Nakayama Ichiro | Director | Option exercise | $441,184.00 | Form 4 for Nakayama Ichiro (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Sode Masanori | See Remarks | Option exercise | $41,500.00 | Form 4 for Sode Masanori (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Sode Masanori | See Remarks | Option exercise | $83,028.00 | Form 4 for Sode Masanori (opens sec.gov in a new tab) |
A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4).
Common questions
What is PAYP's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's blended fair value for PayPay Corporation (PAYP) is $13.10 per share, versus a market price of $15.96 (22% above fair value).
Is PAYP overvalued or undervalued?
On our blended fair value PAYP looks overvalued vs fair value at $15.96. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for PAYP?
A WACC of 8.8% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is PayPay stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair value for PayPay Corporation (PAYP) is $13.10 against a market price of $15.96. Our read: 22% above fair value. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
PayPay (PAYP) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair value for PayPay Corporation (PAYP) is $13.10, built on a 8.8% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into PayPay stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 18.9% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 15.2% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $15.96. A model estimate, not investment advice.
PayPay (PAYP) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for PayPay Corporation (PAYP): Kagechika Wataru, See Remarks, option exercise on 2026-06-10. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.
Stocks below our fair value instead
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.