PKG · Intrinsic value
Is Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 19, 2026, TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) at $87.89 – $315.49, too broad a range to say where the delayed market price of $236.63 sits in it, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from SEC filings and market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
What is PKG worth?
- Fair-value range
- $87.89 – $315.49
- Market price
- $236.63
- Gap to fair value
- —
- Verdict
- Too wide to call
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 17.0% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 6.6% a year on average over the same horizon.
What is PKG's TickerWorth Score?
Expensive vs our estimate — the business scores well
Compared with Consumer Cyclical companies in US
Its strongest point: recent price trend has been strong. Its weakest: trades above our estimate of what it's worth.
- Value · 38 of 100
Cheaper than 38% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
- Price vs worth · 25 of 100
- Quality · 42 of 100
More profitable than 42% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
- Financial health · 58 of 100
Financially stronger than 58% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
- Growth · 57 of 100
Growing faster than 57% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
- Momentum · 69 of 100
Outperformed 69% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US over the past year
Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored
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Why PKG gets a range, not one number
At a recent price of $236.63, Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) sits inside a range too wide to call either way: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $87.89 and $315.49 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
Read the full reasoning
The valuation discounts Packaging Corporation of America's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 8.4%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 77% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 17.0% annual revenue growth for PKG. Our base case instead compounds to about 6.6% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in materially faster growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, PKG's modeled DCF value ranges from about $88.73 to $259.44 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Packaging Corporation of America would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of PKG's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind PKG's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenuePACKAGING CORP OF AMERICA FY2025 10-K (accession 0001193125-26-074129): us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, FY2025 full year. | $8,989,300,000 |
| Base EBIT marginPACKAGING CORP OF AMERICA FY2025 10-K (accession 0001193125-26-074129): us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss 1,107,000,000 / revenue 8,989,300,000 = 12.31%, FY2025. | 12.3% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 9% → 8% → 7% → 5% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.2% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 0.80 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesPACKAGING CORP OF AMERICA FY2025 10-K (accession 0001193125-26-074129): WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding = 89,600,000 shares, FY2025. | 90M |
| Market priceLast known price · as of 2026-10-19 21:42 UTC | $236.63 |
Change PKG's assumptions
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What does Packaging Corporation of America do?
What does it do?
Packaging Corporation of America manufactures and sells containerboard and uncoated freesheet (UFS) paper products in North America. The company operates through Packaging and Paper segments. It operates in the Packaging & Containers industry (Consumer Cyclical sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 16,800 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $9.0B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $13 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 13.1%), after a 21% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 7.3% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks mixed: carries modest debt (0.9× equity), comfortably covers its short-term bills (2.9× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
Who at PKG filed insider trades?
| Date | Insider | Relationship | What happened | Value | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shirley Donald R. | Exec. VP | Open-market sale | $3,008,496.00 | Form 4 for Shirley Donald R. (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Hassfurther Thomas A | President | Open-market sale | $1,794,002.00 | Form 4 for Hassfurther Thomas A (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Hassfurther Thomas A | President | Open-market sale | $2,260,829.00 | Form 4 for Hassfurther Thomas A (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Hassfurther Thomas A | President | Open-market sale | $3,132,750.00 | Form 4 for Hassfurther Thomas A (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| KOWLZAN MARK W | Director, Chairman & CEO | Open-market sale | $2,011,426.22 | Form 4 for KOWLZAN MARK W (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| MENCOFF SAMUEL M | Director | Grant / award | — | Form 4 for MENCOFF SAMUEL M (opens sec.gov in a new tab) |
A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans
Common questions
What is PKG's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) between $87.89 and $315.49 per share, versus a market price of $236.63. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value, so we publish the range.
Is PKG overvalued or undervalued?
At $236.63 the price sits inside a range too wide to call either way. We don't call PKG overvalued or undervalued from a range this wide. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for PKG?
A WACC of 8.4% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Packaging Corporation of America stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair-value range for Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) is $87.89 – $315.49 against a market price of $236.63. Too wide to call. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair-value range for Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) is $87.89 – $315.49, built on a 8.4% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Packaging Corporation of America stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 17.0% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 6.6% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $236.63. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Packaging Corporation of America (PKG): Shirley Donald R., Exec. VP, open-market sale on 2026-08-20. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.
Other ways into the coverage
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.