PSX · Intrinsic value
Is Phillips 66 (PSX) overvalued or undervalued?
Phillips 66 (PSX) trades at the delayed market price of $293.17 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of 7.3% a year for 5 years. TickerWorth's fair value is $385.50 a share (priced within our range of $212.78 – $443.74). We do not call it over- or undervalued from inside our range.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
Is PSX fairly valued?
- Fair value
- $385.50
- Market price
- $293.17
- Upside to fair value
- +31.5%
- Verdict
- Priced within our range of $212.78 – $443.74
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 7.3% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 16.6% a year on average over the same horizon.
What is PSX's TickerWorth Score?
Middle of the pack — real strengths and real weaknesses
Compared with Energy companies in US
Its strongest point: growing quickly. Its weakest: profitability is weak.
- Value · 42 of 100
Cheaper than 42% of Energy companies in US
- Price vs worth · 75 of 100
- Quality · 29 of 100
More profitable than 29% of Energy companies in US
- Financial health · 50 of 100
Financially stronger than 50% of Energy companies in US
- Growth · 80 of 100
Growing faster than 80% of Energy companies in US
- Momentum · 89 of 100
Outperformed 89% of Energy companies in US over the past year
Confidence: High confidence · Scored
Get the Undervalued Company of the Week.
PSX DCF valuation, input by input
TickerWorth's fair value for Phillips 66 (PSX) is $385.50 a share, against the delayed market price of $293.17 (priced within our range of $212.78 – $443.74). We do not call it over- or undervalued from inside our range. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
Read the full reasoning
One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values PSX at about $416.96 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.
The valuation discounts Phillips 66's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 8.1%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 79% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 7.3% annual revenue growth for PSX. Our base case instead compounds to about 16.6% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in slower growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, PSX's modeled DCF value ranges from about $282.52 to $764.98 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Phillips 66 would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of PSX's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind PSX's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueLive feed — totalRevenue (TTM) | $152,167,010,000 |
| Base EBIT marginComputed — reported operating margin exceeded the EBITDA margin (impossible); held to 4.5% so D&A stays positive | 4.5% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 30% → 24% → 17% → 10% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.3% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 0.70 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesLive feed — sharesOutstanding | 399M |
| Market priceBackup price feed · as of 2026-10-19 12:31 UTC | $293.17 |
Change PSX's assumptions
The discount-rate dial and the editable model
ProChange growth, margin and WACC yourself — Pro (7-day free trial, card required).
What does Phillips 66 do?
What does it do?
Phillips 66 operates as an integrated downstream energy provider in the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and internationally. It operates through five segments: Midstream, Chemicals, Refining, Marketing and Specialties (M&S), and Renewable Fuels. It operates in the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing industry (Energy sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 12,600 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $152.2B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $9 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 8.5%), after a 13% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 4.7% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks mixed: carries modest debt (0.6× equity), can just cover its short-term bills (1.3× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
Who at PSX filed insider trades?
| Date | Insider | Relationship | What happened | Value | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mandell Brian | Executive Vice President | Option exercise | $1,747,980.00 | Form 4 for Mandell Brian (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Mandell Brian | Executive Vice President | Open-market sale | $6,202,380.60 | Form 4 for Mandell Brian (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Kluppel Ann M | SVP & Controller | Gift | — | Form 4 for Kluppel Ann M (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Harbison Richard G | EVP, Refining | Option exercise | $1,008,450.00 | Form 4 for Harbison Richard G (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Harbison Richard G | EVP, Refining | Option exercise | $1,317,940.00 | Form 4 for Harbison Richard G (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Harbison Richard G | EVP, Refining | Option exercise | $2,390,353.00 | Form 4 for Harbison Richard G (opens sec.gov in a new tab) |
A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans
Common questions
What is PSX's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's blended fair value for Phillips 66 (PSX) is $385.50 per share, versus a market price of $293.17 (priced within our range of $212.78 – $443.74).
Is PSX overvalued or undervalued?
Priced within our range of $212.78 – $443.74 at $293.17. We don't call PSX overvalued or undervalued from a range. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for PSX?
A WACC of 8.1% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Phillips 66 stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair value for Phillips 66 (PSX) is $385.50 against a market price of $293.17. Our read: Priced within our range of $212.78 – $443.74. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Phillips 66 (PSX) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair value for Phillips 66 (PSX) is $385.50, built on a 8.1% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Phillips 66 stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 7.3% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 16.6% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $293.17. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Phillips 66 (PSX) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Phillips 66 (PSX): Mandell Brian, Executive Vice President, option exercise on 2026-09-16. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.