RIO · Intrinsic value
Is Rio Tinto Group (RIO) overvalued or undervalued?
Rio Tinto Group (RIO) trades at the delayed market price of $89.32 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of −5.5% a year for 5 years. TickerWorth's fair value is $136.01 a share (priced within our range of $61.94 – $184.02). We do not call it over- or undervalued from inside our range.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from SEC filings and market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
Is RIO fairly valued?
- Fair value
- $136.01
- Market price
- $89.32
- Upside to fair value
- +52.3%
- Verdict
- Priced within our range of $61.94 – $184.02
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of −5.5% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 7.1% a year on average over the same horizon.
What is RIO's TickerWorth Score?
Scores higher than most companies we compare it with
Compared with Basic Materials companies in US
Its strongest point: trades below our estimate of what it's worth. Its weakest: growth is slow or negative.
- Value · 63 of 100
Cheaper than 63% of Basic Materials companies in US
- Price vs worth · 92 of 100
- Quality · 60 of 100
More profitable than 60% of Basic Materials companies in US
- Financial health · 51 of 100
Financially stronger than 51% of Basic Materials companies in US
- Growth · 42 of 100
Growing faster than 42% of Basic Materials companies in US
- Momentum · 56 of 100
Outperformed 56% of Basic Materials companies in US over the past year
Confidence: High confidence · Scored
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RIO DCF valuation, input by input
TickerWorth's fair value for Rio Tinto Group (RIO) is $136.01 a share, against the delayed market price of $89.32 (priced within our range of $61.94 – $184.02). We do not call it over- or undervalued from inside our range. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
Read the full reasoning
One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values RIO at about $171.39 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.
The valuation discounts Rio Tinto Group's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 8.0%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 79% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly -5.5% annual revenue growth for RIO. Our base case instead compounds to about 7.1% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in slower growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, RIO's modeled DCF value ranges from about $118.20 to $312.53 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Rio Tinto Group would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of RIO's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind RIO's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueRIO TINTO PLC FY2025 20-F (accession 0001628280-26-009531): ifrs-full:RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers, FY2025 full year. | $57,240,000,000 |
| Base EBIT marginRIO TINTO PLC FY2025 20-F (accession 0001628280-26-009531): ifrs-full:ProfitLossFromOperatingActivities 14,936,000,000 / revenue 57,240,000,000 = 26.09%, FY2025. | 26.1% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 10% → 9% → 7% → 6% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.2% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 0.66 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesRIO TINTO PLC FY2025 20-F (accession 0001628280-26-009531): WeightedAverageShares = 1,624,000,000 shares, FY2025. | 1,624M |
| Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 17:03 UTC | $89.32 |
Change RIO's assumptions
The discount-rate dial and the editable model
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What does Rio Tinto Group do?
What does it do?
Rio Tinto Group engages in exploring, mining, and processing mineral resources worldwide. The company operates through Iron Ore; Aluminium and lithium; and Copper segments. It operates in the Other Industrial Metals & Mining industry (Basic Materials sector), headquartered in United Kingdom. The company employs roughly 56,890 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $61.8B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $28 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 28.0%), after a 30% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 19.6% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks mixed: carries modest debt (0.3× equity), can just cover its short-term bills (1.4× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
Who at RIO filed insider trades?
| Date | Insider | Relationship | What happened | Value | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RIO TINTO PLC | Director, 10% owner | Conversion | — | Form 4 for RIO TINTO PLC (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| RIO TINTO PLC | Director, 10% owner | Open-market sale | $573,300,000.00 | Form 4 for RIO TINTO PLC (opens sec.gov in a new tab) |
A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4).
Common questions
What is RIO's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's blended fair value for Rio Tinto Group (RIO) is $136.01 per share, versus a market price of $89.32 (priced within our range of $61.94 – $184.02).
Is RIO overvalued or undervalued?
Priced within our range of $61.94 – $184.02 at $89.32. We don't call RIO overvalued or undervalued from a range. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for RIO?
A WACC of 8.0% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Rio Tinto Group stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair value for Rio Tinto Group (RIO) is $136.01 against a market price of $89.32. Our read: Priced within our range of $61.94 – $184.02. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Rio Tinto Group (RIO) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair value for Rio Tinto Group (RIO) is $136.01, built on a 8.0% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Rio Tinto Group stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of −5.5% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 7.1% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $89.32. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Rio Tinto Group (RIO) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Rio Tinto Group (RIO): RIO TINTO PLC, Director, 10% owner, conversion on 2010-12-21. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.