Is SAM overvalued or undervalued?

At $179.57 the price sits inside our range of estimates. We don't call SAM overvalued or undervalued from a range. This is an educational estimate, not advice.

What discount rate is used for SAM?

A WACC of 9.3% and a terminal growth rate of 2.0%.

Is The Boston Beer stock undervalued?

TickerWorth's fair-value range for The Boston Beer Company, Inc. (SAM) is $148.58 – $337.25 against a market price of $179.57. Priced within our range. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.

The Boston Beer (SAM) DCF valuation and fair value

Our fair-value range for The Boston Beer Company, Inc. (SAM) is $148.58 – $337.25, built on a 9.3% discount rate (WACC) and 2.0% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.

What growth is priced into The Boston Beer stock?

Today's price implies revenue growth of 2.1% a year for 5 years; our model assumes −0.2% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $179.57. A model estimate, not investment advice.

The Boston Beer (SAM) insider trading

The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for The Boston Beer Company, Inc. (SAM): Stone Christopher Isaac, Director, grant / award on 2026-05-27. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.

SAM · Intrinsic value

Is The Boston Beer Company, Inc. (SAM) overvalued or undervalued?

Name: The Boston Beer Company, Inc. (SAM) DCF intrinsic value
Creator: TickerWorth

As of Oct 19, 2026, TickerWorth publishes a fair-value range of $148.58 – $337.25 for The Boston Beer Company, Inc. (SAM), against the delayed market price of $179.57: priced within our range. It is a range, not a single number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. It is a model estimate; every input is sourced below.

Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from a hand-researched model · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made

Open full SAM analysis

What is SAM worth?

Backup data source

This price comes from our backup market-data feed.

Fair-value range: $148.58 – $337.25; A range by design: peer multiples and our researched mid-cycle DCF.
Market price: $179.57
Gap to fair value: —
Verdict: Priced within our range

Price as of 19 Oct 2026, 13:53 UTC · Prices are delayed.We publish this company as a range by design, not because our valuation lenses disagree, and we do not collapse it to a single number. We do not call it over- or undervalued from a range.

Fair-value range against the delayed market price: Priced within our range.

Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 2.1% a year for 5 years; our model assumes −0.2% a year on average over the same horizon.

What is SAM's TickerWorth Score?

C54/100

Middle of the pack — real strengths and real weaknesses

Compared with Consumer Defensive companies in US

Its strongest point: looks cheap on the numbers. Its weakest: growth is slow or negative.

Value · 83 of 100
Cheaper than 83% of Consumer Defensive companies in US
Price vs worth · 87 of 100
Quality · 28 of 100
More profitable than 28% of Consumer Defensive companies in US
Financial health · 64 of 100
Financially stronger than 64% of Consumer Defensive companies in US
Growth · 17 of 100
Growing faster than 17% of Consumer Defensive companies in US
Momentum · 26 of 100
Outperformed 26% of Consumer Defensive companies in US over the past year

Confidence: High confidence · Scored 19 Oct 2026, 13:53 UTC

Get the Undervalued Company of the Week.

Where the numbers come from

Hand-researched model

What the modeller flagged

RANGE ONLY, ON PURPOSE. Year-1 revenue growth is entered as the guided decline (-2.5%, inside management's implied -1% to -4%), so the site's mechanical cyclical flag fires and this model publishes as a range. That is the house rule for a guided negative year; it is not a rounding choice.
YEAR-1 FCF IS ~56% BELOW BOSTON BEER'S LAST REPORTED FCF ($94M modeled vs $215.6M FY2025 OCF less capex) - far beyond the 20% threshold. Decomposition: applying this model's method to FY2025 itself gives only ~$138M (NOPAT $102M + D&A $90M - capex $55M), because reported OCF also contained ~$22M of stock compensation added back (kept as a cost here), ~$33M of working-capital release (inventory fell $23.4M), $7M of non-cash impairment and ~$6M of after-tax interest income. From $138M to $94M is the 2026 business: EBIT ~$26M lower on guided revenue and heavier advertising, D&A ~$10M lower, and capex ~$15M higher at the guided $70M.
TERMINAL VALUE IS ~72% OF ENTERPRISE VALUE. The five explicit years are a slow, flat recovery; most of the answer is the assumption that the business stabilizes at a ~7.5% operating margin and grows 2% a year forever.
D&A (4.2%) EXCEEDS CAPEX (3.6%) IN EVERY FORECAST YEAR, INCLUDING THE TERMINAL ONE. Boston Beer is still harvesting brewery capacity built for the 2020-21 hard-seltzer boom. That cannot last forever; equalizing capex with D&A would take ~$13/share off. Left as is because the convergence is likely slow and D&A has itself been falling.
THE LITIGATION DEDUCTION IS BINARY-ISH. ~$14/share rides on the Ardagh appeal; I deduct the full after-tax accrual.

Why SAM gets a range, not one number

At a recent price of $179.57, The Boston Beer Company, Inc. (SAM) sits inside our range of estimates: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $148.58 and $337.25 per share. For a cyclical we value through the cycle we publish a range only (peer multiples and our researched mid-cycle DCF): where in the cycle the business sits decides where in that range it lands, and a single figure would claim we know that precisely. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.

Read the full reasoning

The valuation discounts The Boston Beer Company, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 9.3%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.0%. About 72% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.

Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 2.1% annual revenue growth for SAM. Our base case instead compounds to about -0.2% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in materially faster growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.

Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, SAM's modeled DCF value ranges from about $116.61 to $213.16 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.

How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what The Boston Beer Company, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of SAM's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.

Every input behind SAM's DCF

Input	Value	Source
Base-year revenueBoston Beer Q4/FY2025 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99 (accession 0001193125-26-067142, filed 2026-02-24): Net revenue (after excise taxes) $1,964,994K for the 52 weeks ended 2025-12-27, -2.4% vs FY2024 $2,012.9M. Shipments -4.7%, depletions -4%; price and mix partly offset volume. Revenue is now 6% below the FY2022 peak of $2,090.3M (FY2023 $2,008.6M, FY2024 $2,012.9M, FY2025 $1,965.0M) - the hard-seltzer and Twisted Tea volume unwind. Calendar-ish 52/53-week fiscal year ending the last Saturday of December. CROSS-CHECK, H1 2026: net revenue $1,002.3M, -3.8% YoY (Q2 $568.3M, -3.3%) on shipments -5.6%. TTM to 2026-06-27 = $1,925.4M. UNCHANGED as the base - the decline belongs in the Year-1 forecast.	$1,965,000,000	Boston Beer Q4/FY2025 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99 (accession 0001193125-26-067142, filed 2026-02-24): Net revenue (after excise taxes) $1,964,994K for the 52 weeks ended 2025-12-27, -2.4% vs FY2024 $2,012.9M. Shipments -4.7%, depletions -4%; price and mix partly offset volume. Revenue is now 6% below the FY2022 peak of $2,090.3M (FY2023 $2,008.6M, FY2024 $2,012.9M, FY2025 $1,965.0M) - the hard-seltzer and Twisted Tea volume unwind. Calendar-ish 52/53-week fiscal year ending the last Saturday of December. CROSS-CHECK, H1 2026: net revenue $1,002.3M, -3.8% YoY (Q2 $568.3M, -3.3%) on shipments -5.6%. TTM to 2026-06-27 = $1,925.4M. UNCHANGED as the base - the decline belongs in the Year-1 forecast.
Base EBIT marginBoston Beer FY2025 10-K (accession 0001193125-26-067467, filed 2026-02-24): us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss FY2025 $144,882K / net revenue $1,964,994K = 7.37%. A CLEAN YEAR: FY2025 carries only $7.0M of brewery-asset impairment and no contract-settlement or brand-impairment charges (FY2024's 3.77% GAAP margin was depressed by a $42.6M Dogfish Head intangible impairment and $26.1M of contract settlement costs). Built as gross profit $952.6M (48.5%) - advertising, promotional and selling $610.0M - G&A $190.8M - impairment $7.0M. EXCLUDES ~$8.6M of interest/other income (pretax $153.5M) because the cash that earns it is in the net-debt bridge. CROSS-CHECK, H1 2026 UNDERLYING: GAAP operating loss $119.7M + Ardagh litigation expense $192.6M + litigation legal fees $5.4M = $78.3M, 7.8% of H1 revenue, against $115.8M (11.1%) for H1 2025 - down because advertising rose $28.7M (incl. $11.1M of freight) on lower revenue. Note seasonality: Q4 is always a loss quarter (Q4 2025 -$33.0M).	7.4%	Boston Beer FY2025 10-K (accession 0001193125-26-067467, filed 2026-02-24): us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss FY2025 $144,882K / net revenue $1,964,994K = 7.37%. A CLEAN YEAR: FY2025 carries only $7.0M of brewery-asset impairment and no contract-settlement or brand-impairment charges (FY2024's 3.77% GAAP margin was depressed by a $42.6M Dogfish Head intangible impairment and $26.1M of contract settlement costs). Built as gross profit $952.6M (48.5%) - advertising, promotional and selling $610.0M - G&A $190.8M - impairment $7.0M. EXCLUDES ~$8.6M of interest/other income (pretax $153.5M) because the cash that earns it is in the net-debt bridge. CROSS-CHECK, H1 2026 UNDERLYING: GAAP operating loss $119.7M + Ardagh litigation expense $192.6M + litigation legal fees $5.4M = $78.3M, 7.8% of H1 revenue, against $115.8M (11.1%) for H1 2025 - down because advertising rose $28.7M (incl. $11.1M of freight) on lower revenue. Note seasonality: Q4 is always a loss quarter (Q4 2025 -$33.0M).
Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast	-2% → -1% → 0% → 1% → 2%	ESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast
Risk-free rateUS 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation; program-wide input shared by every researched model in this run.	5.2%	US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation; program-wide input shared by every researched model in this run.
Betayfinance published beta (5Y monthly): Published 5Y-monthly beta 0.819, read 2026-10-06, rounded to 0.82; used as published, not normalized. Cross-check: STZ in this tracker carries 0.80. One could argue a single-category, sub-$2B small cap with a controlling shareholder deserves a higher beta (or a size premium); I do not add one, which keeps the value slightly HIGHER than a size-adjusted rate would. Each +0.1 of beta takes roughly $9/share off.	0.82	yfinance published beta (5Y monthly): Published 5Y-monthly beta 0.819, read 2026-10-06, rounded to 0.82; used as published, not normalized. Cross-check: STZ in this tracker carries 0.80. One could argue a single-category, sub-$2B small cap with a controlling shareholder deserves a higher beta (or a size premium); I do not add one, which keeps the value slightly HIGHER than a size-adjusted rate would. Each +0.1 of beta takes roughly $9/share off.
Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — estimate (below the 2.5% house default, with stated reason): 2.0%, HALF A POINT BELOW THE 2.5% HOUSE DEFAULT - a deliberate departure, and it LOWERS the value by ~$7.70/share versus the default. Reason: this is a business whose shipments have fallen three years running (FY2023 -6.2%, FY2024 -2.4%, FY2025 -4.7%; H1 2026 -5.6%, per the Q4 earnings releases) in a US beer category that is itself shrinking in volume; its revenue is 6% below FY2022. A perpetuity at roughly nominal GDP would assume SAM grows with the economy forever, which nothing in its last three years supports. 2.0% is roughly price (1-2% a year, per guidance) with flat volume - itself an assumption that the volume decline ends. Compare STZ in this tracker at 2.5%: Constellation is still gaining dollar share; Boston Beer is losing it. Stays far below the 9.34% WACC.	2.0%	ESTIMATEAssumption — estimate (below the 2.5% house default, with stated reason): 2.0%, HALF A POINT BELOW THE 2.5% HOUSE DEFAULT - a deliberate departure, and it LOWERS the value by ~$7.70/share versus the default. Reason: this is a business whose shipments have fallen three years running (FY2023 -6.2%, FY2024 -2.4%, FY2025 -4.7%; H1 2026 -5.6%, per the Q4 earnings releases) in a US beer category that is itself shrinking in volume; its revenue is 6% below FY2022. A perpetuity at roughly nominal GDP would assume SAM grows with the economy forever, which nothing in its last three years supports. 2.0% is roughly price (1-2% a year, per guidance) with flat volume - itself an assumption that the volume decline ends. Compare STZ in this tracker at 2.5%: Constellation is still gaining dollar share; Boston Beer is losing it. Stays far below the 9.34% WACC.
Diluted sharesBoston Beer Q2 2026 10-Q (accession 0001193125-26-314203, filed 2026-07-23): Q2 2026 weighted-average diluted shares 10,358K, which counts BOTH classes: Class A (listed) and Class B (unlisted, all held by founder Jim Koch, 2,068,000 shares, convertible 1:1 into Class A and carrying the right to elect a majority of the board). Each Class B share participates equally in earnings with Class A (FY2025 10-K), so both are counted. Shares outstanding on 2026-07-17: 8,223,681 Class A + 2,068,000 Class B = 10,291,681. The count falls every year (FY2023 12.26M -> FY2025 10.94M) because of buybacks ($202.4M in FY2025); a further $25M 10b5-1 plan runs 2026-09-28 to 2026-12-25.	10M	Boston Beer Q2 2026 10-Q (accession 0001193125-26-314203, filed 2026-07-23): Q2 2026 weighted-average diluted shares 10,358K, which counts BOTH classes: Class A (listed) and Class B (unlisted, all held by founder Jim Koch, 2,068,000 shares, convertible 1:1 into Class A and carrying the right to elect a majority of the board). Each Class B share participates equally in earnings with Class A (FY2025 10-K), so both are counted. Shares outstanding on 2026-07-17: 8,223,681 Class A + 2,068,000 Class B = 10,291,681. The count falls every year (FY2023 12.26M -> FY2025 10.94M) because of buybacks ($202.4M in FY2025); a further $25M 10b5-1 plan runs 2026-09-28 to 2026-12-25.
Market priceBackup price feed · as of 2026-10-19 13:53 UTC	$179.57	Backup price feed · as of 2026-10-19 13:53 UTC

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What does The Boston Beer Company, Inc. do?

What does it do?

The Boston Beer Company, Inc. produces and sells alcohol beverages primarily in the United States. It operates in the Beverages - Brewers industry (Consumer Defensive sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 2,736 people.

How does it make money?

The business turns $1.9B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $9 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 9.3%), after a 49% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, -3.6% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.

Is it financially healthy?

Financially it looks mixed: carries heavy debt (4.4× equity), can just cover its short-term bills (1.0× current ratio), and is currently lossmaking.

Who at SAM filed insider trades?

Recent insider filings for The Boston Beer Company, Inc.
Date	Insider	Relationship	What happened	Value	Filing
27 May 2026	Stone Christopher Isaac	Director	Grant / award	—	Form 4 for Stone Christopher Isaac (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
27 May 2026	JORDAN JOSEPH HUGH	Director	Grant / award	—	Form 4 for JORDAN JOSEPH HUGH (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
27 May 2026	Swanson Cynthia	Director	Grant / award	—	Form 4 for Swanson Cynthia (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
27 May 2026	Nemeth Julio N	Director	Grant / award	—	Form 4 for Nemeth Julio N (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
27 May 2026	Fisher Cynthia A	Director	Grant / award	—	Form 4 for Fisher Cynthia A (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
27 May 2026	Joyce Meghan V.	Director	Grant / award	—	Form 4 for Joyce Meghan V. (opens sec.gov in a new tab)

A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans

Common questions

What is SAM's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's valuation lenses put The Boston Beer Company, Inc. (SAM) between $148.58 and $337.25 per share, versus a market price of $179.57. For a cyclical we value through the cycle we publish a range only (peer multiples and our researched mid-cycle DCF): where in the cycle the business sits decides where in that range it lands, and a single figure would claim we know that precisely.
Is SAM overvalued or undervalued?
At $179.57 the price sits inside our range of estimates. We don't call SAM overvalued or undervalued from a range. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for SAM?
A WACC of 9.3% and a terminal growth rate of 2.0%.
Is The Boston Beer stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair-value range for The Boston Beer Company, Inc. (SAM) is $148.58 – $337.25 against a market price of $179.57. Priced within our range. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
The Boston Beer (SAM) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair-value range for The Boston Beer Company, Inc. (SAM) is $148.58 – $337.25, built on a 9.3% discount rate (WACC) and 2.0% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into The Boston Beer stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 2.1% a year for 5 years; our model assumes −0.2% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $179.57. A model estimate, not investment advice.
The Boston Beer (SAM) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for The Boston Beer Company, Inc. (SAM): Stone Christopher Isaac, Director, grant / award on 2026-05-27. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.