SHEL.L · Intrinsic value
Is Shell plc (SHEL.L) overvalued or undervalued?
Shell plc (SHEL.L) trades at the delayed market price of £39.32 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of 0.6% a year for 5 years. TickerWorth's fair value is £85.69 a share (54% below fair value), as of Oct 19, 2026. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
Is SHEL.L undervalued?
- Fair value
- £85.69
- Market price
- £39.32
- Upside to fair value
- +117.9%
- Verdict
- 54% below fair value
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 0.6% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 16.6% a year on average over the same horizon.
What is SHEL.L's TickerWorth Score?
Scores higher than most companies we compare it with
Compared with Energy companies in UK
Its strongest point: trades below our estimate of what it's worth. Its weakest: profitability is weak.
our cash-flow model doesn't fit this business, so we won't award our top grade off the remaining lenses
- Value · 76 of 100
Cheaper than 76% of Energy companies worldwide
- Price vs worth · 100 of 100
- Quality · 39 of 100
More profitable than 39% of Energy companies worldwide
- Financial health · 70 of 100
Financially stronger than 70% of Energy companies worldwide
- Growth · 62 of 100
Growing faster than 62% of Energy companies worldwide
- Momentum · 75 of 100
Outperformed 75% of Energy companies worldwide over the past year
Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored
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SHEL.L DCF valuation: where the gap comes from
At a recent price of £39.32, Shell plc (SHEL.L) trades 54% below TickerWorth's blended fair value of £85.69 per share — a discounted-cash-flow model cross-checked against peer multiples and asset value — meaning the market currently prices SHEL.L undervalued vs our estimate of what the business is intrinsically worth. Our fair value sits above the market, an implied +117.9% move to close the gap if the business performs in line with our assumptions. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation — the value moves with the inputs, which you can test yourself using the WACC slider below.
Read the full reasoning
One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values SHEL.L at about £84.11 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.
The valuation discounts Shell plc's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 9.0%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 76% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 0.6% annual revenue growth for SHEL.L. Our base case instead compounds to about 16.6% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in slower growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, SHEL.L's modeled DCF value ranges from about £60.59 to £136.62 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Shell plc would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of SHEL.L's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind SHEL.L's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueLive feed — totalRevenue (TTM) | £222,966,820,000 |
| Base EBIT marginComputed — trailing operatingMargins, held roughly flat | 16.7% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 30% → 24% → 17% → 10% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.1% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 1.00 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesLive feed — sharesOutstanding | 5,689M |
| Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 17:04 UTC | £39.32 |
Change SHEL.L's assumptions
The discount-rate dial and the editable model
ProChange growth, margin and WACC yourself — Pro (7-day free trial, card required).
What does Shell plc do?
What does it do?
Shell plc operates as an energy and petrochemical company in Europe, Asia, Oceania, Africa, the United States, and other parts of the Americas. It operates through the following segments: Integrated Gas, Upstream, Marketing, Chemicals and Products, and Renewables and Energy Solutions. It operates in the Oil & Gas Integrated industry (Energy sector), headquartered in United Kingdom. The company employs roughly 84,000 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns 296.6B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $17 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 16.7%), after a 26% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 8.8% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks mixed: carries modest debt (0.4× equity), can just cover its short-term bills (1.4× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
SHEL.L insider trading
Insider filings are available for US-listed companies only.
Common questions
What is SHEL.L's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's blended fair value for Shell plc (SHEL.L) is £85.69 per share, versus a market price of £39.32 (54% below fair value).
Is SHEL.L overvalued or undervalued?
On our blended fair value SHEL.L looks undervalued vs fair value at £39.32. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for SHEL.L?
A WACC of 9.0% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Shell stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair value for Shell plc (SHEL.L) is £85.69 against a market price of £39.32. Our read: 54% below fair value. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Shell (SHEL.L) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair value for Shell plc (SHEL.L) is £85.69, built on a 9.0% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Shell stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 0.6% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 16.6% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of £39.32. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Shell (SHEL.L) insider trading
We have no recent SEC Form 4 insider filings on file for Shell plc (SHEL.L). Form 4 covers US-listed companies only.
More stocks below our fair value
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.