SHOP · Intrinsic value
Is Shopify Inc. (SHOP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 19, 2026, TickerWorth publishes a fair-value range of $13.03 – $54.52 for Shopify Inc. (SHOP), against the delayed market price of $171.34: priced above our range. It is a range, not a single number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from SEC filings and market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
What is SHOP worth?
- Fair-value range
- $13.03 – $54.52
- Market price
- $171.34
- Gap to fair value
- —
- Verdict
- Priced above our range
Reverse DCF, on our cash-flow model rather than the range above: Today's price implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. Above about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative. It solves for revenue growth alone — holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed — so a price well above our cash-flow model's value has nowhere to go but growth, and the solver returns a rate the model can't reconcile. Read it as "the price implies growth we can't justify", not as a forecast.
What is SHOP's TickerWorth Score?
Priced richly vs peers — the business scores well
Compared with Technology companies in US
Its strongest point: strong balance sheet. Its weakest: looks expensive on the numbers.
- Value · 16 of 100
Cheaper than 16% of Technology companies in US
- Price vs worth · 0 of 100
- Quality · 54 of 100
More profitable than 54% of Technology companies in US
- Financial health · 76 of 100
Financially stronger than 76% of Technology companies in US
- Growth · 56 of 100
Growing faster than 56% of Technology companies in US
- Momentum · 79 of 100
Outperformed 79% of Technology companies in US over the past year
Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored
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Why SHOP gets a range, not one number
At a recent price of $171.34, Shopify Inc. (SHOP) sits above every lens we ran: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $13.03 and $54.52 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
Read the full reasoning
The valuation discounts Shopify Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 16.9%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 41% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — SHOP would need sustained revenue growth of more than 25%/yr to justify today's price, against about 16.6% a year compounded in our base case. We don't quote a precise figure here, because past about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative: it solves for revenue growth alone, holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed, so a price well above our fair value has nowhere to go but growth. The honest reading is that the price implies growth this model can't reconcile — not that we forecast it.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, SHOP's modeled DCF value ranges from about $8.96 to $10.44 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Shopify Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of SHOP's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind SHOP's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueShopify Inc. FY2025 10-K (accession 0001594805-26-000007): us-gaap:Revenues, FY2025 full year. | $11,556,000,000 |
| Base EBIT marginShopify Inc. FY2025 10-K (accession 0001594805-26-000007): us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss 1,468,000,000 / revenue 11,556,000,000 = 12.70%, FY2025. | 12.7% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 30% → 24% → 17% → 10% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.2% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 2.50 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesShopify Inc. FY2025 10-K (accession 0001594805-26-000007): WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding = 1,304,953,255 shares, FY2025. | 1,305M |
| Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 17:03 UTC | $171.34 |
Change SHOP's assumptions
The discount-rate dial and the editable model
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What does Shopify Inc. do?
What does it do?
Shopify Inc., a commerce technology company, provides tools to start, scale, market, and run a business of various sizes in Canada, the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. The Company offers Shopify platform that enables merchants to manage products and inventory, process orders and payments, fulfill and ship orders, build customer relationships, source products, leverage analytics, and reporting and access financing for running their business across all of their sales channels, including web and mobile storefronts, physical retail locations, social media storefronts, and marketplaces. It operates in the Software - Application industry (Technology sector), headquartered in Canada. The company employs roughly 7,600 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $13.3B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $18 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 17.6%), after a 48% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 14.5% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks solid: carries moderate debt (1.4× equity), comfortably covers its short-term bills (5.4× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
SHOP insider trading
We have no recent SEC Form 4 insider filings on file for Shopify Inc.. Form 4 covers US-listed companies only.
Common questions
What is SHOP's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Shopify Inc. (SHOP) between $13.03 and $54.52 per share, versus a market price of $171.34. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value, so we publish the range.
Is SHOP overvalued or undervalued?
At $171.34 the price sits above every lens we ran. We don't call SHOP overvalued or undervalued from a range this wide. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for SHOP?
A WACC of 16.9% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Shopify stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair-value range for Shopify Inc. (SHOP) is $13.03 – $54.52 against a market price of $171.34. Priced above our range. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Shopify (SHOP) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair-value range for Shopify Inc. (SHOP) is $13.03 – $54.52, built on a 16.9% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Shopify stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. Above about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative. It solves for revenue growth alone — holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed — so a price well above our cash-flow model's value has nowhere to go but growth, and the solver returns a rate the model can't reconcile. Read it as "the price implies growth we can't justify", not as a forecast. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $171.34. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Shopify (SHOP) insider trading
We have no recent SEC Form 4 insider filings on file for Shopify Inc. (SHOP). Form 4 covers US-listed companies only.
Other ways into the coverage
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.