SJM · Intrinsic value
Is The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 20, 2026, TickerWorth's valuation lenses put The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) at $74.88 – $291.70, too broad a range to say where the delayed market price of $129.67 sits in it, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from SEC filings and market data · Updated Oct 20, 2026 · How these pages are made
What is SJM worth?
- Fair-value range
- $74.88 – $291.70
- Market price
- $129.67
- Gap to fair value
- —
- Verdict
- Too wide to call
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 9.4% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 3.8% a year on average over the same horizon.
What is SJM's TickerWorth Score?
Middle of the pack — real strengths and real weaknesses
Compared with Consumer Defensive companies in US
Its strongest point: growing quickly. Its weakest: balance sheet looks stretched.
- Value · 62 of 100
Cheaper than 62% of Consumer Defensive companies in US
- Price vs worth · 52 of 100
- Quality · 34 of 100
More profitable than 34% of Consumer Defensive companies in US
- Financial health · 24 of 100
Financially stronger than 24% of Consumer Defensive companies in US
- Growth · 76 of 100
Growing faster than 76% of Consumer Defensive companies in US
- Momentum · 87 of 100
Outperformed 87% of Consumer Defensive companies in US over the past year
Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored
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Why SJM gets a range, not one number
At a recent price of $129.67, The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) sits inside a range too wide to call either way: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $74.88 and $291.70 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
Read the full reasoning
The valuation discounts The J. M. Smucker Company's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 6.6%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 86% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is unusually high — most of the answer comes from a single assumption about the far future, so treat this figure as low-confidence and lean on the multiples alongside it.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 9.4% annual revenue growth for SJM. Our base case instead compounds to about 3.8% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in materially faster growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, SJM's modeled DCF value ranges from about $24.59 to $279.13 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what The J. M. Smucker Company would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of SJM's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind SJM's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueJ M SMUCKER Co FY2026 10-K (accession 0000091419-26-000050): us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax, FY2026 full year. | $9,050,900,000 |
| Base EBIT marginJ M SMUCKER Co FY2026 10-K (accession 0000091419-26-000050): us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss 360,200,000 / revenue 9,050,900,000 = 3.98%, FY2026. | 4.0% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 4% → 4% → 4% → 4% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.2% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 0.40 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesJ M SMUCKER Co FY2022 10-K (accession 0000091419-22-000049): WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding = 108,400,000 shares, FY2026. | 108M |
| Market priceBackup price feed · as of 2026-10-20 23:07 UTC | $129.67 |
Change SJM's assumptions
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What does The J. M. Smucker Company do?
What does it do?
The J. M. It operates in the Packaged Foods industry (Consumer Defensive sector), headquartered in United States.
How does it make money?
The business turns $9.1B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $18 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 17.9%), after a 38% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 2.5% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks stretched: carries moderate debt (1.2× equity), may struggle to cover its short-term bills (0.9× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
Who at SJM filed insider trades?
| Date | Insider | Relationship | What happened | Value | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penrose Jill R | Chief People Officer | Shares withheld (tax) | $192,004.62 | Form 4 for Penrose Jill R (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Knudsen Jeannette L | Chief Legal Officer | Shares withheld (tax) | $208,169.28 | Form 4 for Knudsen Jeannette L (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Ferguson Robert D | Chief Product Supply Officer | Shares withheld (tax) | $147,321.82 | Form 4 for Ferguson Robert D (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Ferguson Robert D | Chief Product Supply Officer | Open-market sale | $333,938.02 | Form 4 for Ferguson Robert D (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| SMUCKER MARK T | Director, CEO, Chair of Board | Option exercise | $9,237,006.90 | Form 4 for SMUCKER MARK T (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| SMUCKER MARK T | Director, CEO, Chair of Board | Open-market sale | $11,144,631.19 | Form 4 for SMUCKER MARK T (opens sec.gov in a new tab) |
A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans
Common questions
What is SJM's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's valuation lenses put The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) between $74.88 and $291.70 per share, versus a market price of $129.67. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value, so we publish the range.
Is SJM overvalued or undervalued?
At $129.67 the price sits inside a range too wide to call either way. We don't call SJM overvalued or undervalued from a range this wide. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for SJM?
A WACC of 6.6% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is The J. M. Smucker stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair-value range for The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) is $74.88 – $291.70 against a market price of $129.67. Too wide to call. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
The J. M. Smucker (SJM) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair-value range for The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) is $74.88 – $291.70, built on a 6.6% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into The J. M. Smucker stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 9.4% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 3.8% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $129.67. A model estimate, not investment advice.
The J. M. Smucker (SJM) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM): Penrose Jill R, Chief People Officer, shares withheld (tax) on 2026-09-01. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.
Other ways into the coverage
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.
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SJM goes on your watchlist, where its valuation is re-run as new filings land — so you read the current number, not the one from today.