SMTC · Intrinsic value
Is Semtech Corporation (SMTC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 19, 2026, TickerWorth publishes a fair-value range of $101.56 – $101.56 for Semtech Corporation (SMTC), against the delayed market price of $145.68: priced above our range. It is a range, not a single number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from SEC filings and market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
What is SMTC worth?
- Fair-value range
- $101.56 – $101.56
- Market price
- $145.68
- Gap to fair value
- —
- Verdict
- Priced above our range
Reverse DCF, on our cash-flow model rather than the range above: Today's price implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. Above about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative. It solves for revenue growth alone — holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed — so a price well above our cash-flow model's value has nowhere to go but growth, and the solver returns a rate the model can't reconcile. Read it as "the price implies growth we can't justify", not as a forecast.
What is SMTC's TickerWorth Score?
Priced richly vs peers — the business scores well
Compared with Technology companies in US
Its strongest point: growing quickly. Its weakest: looks expensive on the numbers.
- Value · 19 of 100
Cheaper than 19% of Technology companies in US
- Price vs worth · 26 of 100
- Quality · 57 of 100
More profitable than 57% of Technology companies in US
- Financial health · 36 of 100
Financially stronger than 36% of Technology companies in US
- Growth · 84 of 100
Growing faster than 84% of Technology companies in US
- Momentum · 66 of 100
Outperformed 66% of Technology companies in US over the past year
Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored
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Why SMTC gets a range, not one number
At a recent price of $145.68, Semtech Corporation (SMTC) sits above every lens we ran: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $101.56 and $101.56 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
Read the full reasoning
The valuation discounts Semtech Corporation's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 16.2%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 64% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — SMTC would need sustained revenue growth of more than 25%/yr to justify today's price, against about 11.9% a year compounded in our base case. We don't quote a precise figure here, because past about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative: it solves for revenue growth alone, holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed, so a price well above our fair value has nowhere to go but growth. The honest reading is that the price implies growth this model can't reconcile — not that we forecast it.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, SMTC's modeled DCF value ranges from about $1.98 to $4.32 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Semtech Corporation would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of SMTC's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind SMTC's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueSemtech Corporation FY2026 10-K (accession 0000088941-26-000005): us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, FY2026 full year. | $1,049,970,000 |
| Base EBIT marginSemtech Corporation FY2026 10-K (accession 0000088941-26-000005): us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss 32,565,000 / revenue 1,049,975,000 = 3.10%, FY2026. | 3.1% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 20% → 16% → 12% → 8% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.2% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 2.42 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesSemtech Corporation FY2026 10-K (accession 0000088941-26-000005): WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding = 88,374,000 shares, FY2026. | 88M |
| Market priceLast known price · as of 2026-10-19 19:25 UTC | $145.68 |
Change SMTC's assumptions
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What does Semtech Corporation do?
What does it do?
Semtech Corporation provides semiconductor, Internet of Things systems, and cloud connectivity service solutions in the Asia- Pacific, North America, and Europe. The company operates in three segments: Signal Integrity, Analog Mixed Signal and Wireless, and IoT Systems and Connectivity. It operates in the Semiconductors industry (Technology sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 1,920 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $1.0B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $16 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 16.2%), after a 53% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 13.1% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks mixed: carries modest debt (0.7× equity), comfortably covers its short-term bills (1.7× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
Who at SMTC filed insider trades?
| Date | Insider | Relationship | What happened | Value | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Jason Elliot | EVP and CCO | Open-market sale | $526,508.10 | Form 4 for Green Jason Elliot (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| HOU HONG Q | Director, President and CEO | Open-market sale | $382,420.00 | Form 4 for HOU HONG Q (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Lin Mark | EVP and CFO | Option exercise | — | Form 4 for Lin Mark (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Lin Mark | EVP and CFO | Shares withheld (tax) | $279,117.75 | Form 4 for Lin Mark (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Lin Mark | EVP and CFO | Open-market sale | $172,967.29 | Form 4 for Lin Mark (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| HOU HONG Q | Director, President and CEO | Option exercise | — | Form 4 for HOU HONG Q (opens sec.gov in a new tab) |
A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans
Common questions
What is SMTC's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Semtech Corporation (SMTC) between $101.56 and $101.56 per share, versus a market price of $145.68. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value, so we publish the range.
Is SMTC overvalued or undervalued?
At $145.68 the price sits above every lens we ran. We don't call SMTC overvalued or undervalued from a range this wide. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for SMTC?
A WACC of 16.2% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Semtech stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair-value range for Semtech Corporation (SMTC) is $101.56 – $101.56 against a market price of $145.68. Priced above our range. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Semtech (SMTC) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair-value range for Semtech Corporation (SMTC) is $101.56 – $101.56, built on a 16.2% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Semtech stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. Above about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative. It solves for revenue growth alone — holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed — so a price well above our cash-flow model's value has nowhere to go but growth, and the solver returns a rate the model can't reconcile. Read it as "the price implies growth we can't justify", not as a forecast. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $145.68. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Semtech (SMTC) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Semtech Corporation (SMTC): Green Jason Elliot, EVP and CCO, open-market sale on 2026-10-07. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.
Other ways into the coverage
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.