SPG · Intrinsic value
Is Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG) overvalued or undervalued?
Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG) trades at the delayed market price of $202.49 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. TickerWorth's dcf fair value is $46.79 a share (333% above fair value), as of Oct 19, 2026. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from SEC filings and market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
Is SPG overvalued?
- DCF fair value
- $46.79
- Market price
- $202.49
- Downside to fair value
- 76.9%
- Verdict
- 333% above fair value
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. Above about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative. It solves for revenue growth alone — holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed — so a price well above our cash-flow model's value has nowhere to go but growth, and the solver returns a rate the model can't reconcile. Read it as "the price implies growth we can't justify", not as a forecast.
What is SPG's TickerWorth Score?
Middle of the pack — real strengths and real weaknesses
Compared with Real Estate companies in US
Its strongest point: a profitable, high-quality business. Its weakest: looks expensive on the numbers.
- Value · 36 of 100
Cheaper than 36% of Real Estate companies in US
- Price vs worth · — of 100
- Quality · 89 of 100
More profitable than 89% of Real Estate companies in US
- Financial health · 28 of 100
Financially stronger than 28% of Real Estate companies in US
- Growth · 41 of 100
Growing faster than 41% of Real Estate companies in US
- Momentum · 73 of 100
Outperformed 73% of Real Estate companies in US over the past year
Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored
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SPG DCF valuation: what the price assumes
At a recent price of $202.49, Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG) trades 333% above TickerWorth's base-case discounted-cash-flow (DCF) fair value of $46.79 per share — meaning the market currently prices SPG overvalued vs our estimate of what the business is intrinsically worth. Our fair value sits below the market, an implied -76.9% move to close the gap if the business performs in line with our assumptions. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation — the value moves with the inputs, which you can test yourself using the WACC slider below.
Read the full reasoning
The valuation discounts Simon Property Group, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 9.9%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 72% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — SPG would need sustained revenue growth of more than 25%/yr to justify today's price, against about 7.3% a year compounded in our base case. We don't quote a precise figure here, because past about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative: it solves for revenue growth alone, holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed, so a price well above our fair value has nowhere to go but growth. The honest reading is that the price implies growth this model can't reconcile — not that we forecast it.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, SPG's modeled DCF value ranges from about $16.19 to $108.32 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Simon Property Group, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of SPG's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind SPG's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueSIMON PROPERTY GROUP, INC. FY2025 10-K (accession 0001104659-26-019419): us-gaap:Revenues, FY2025 full year. | $6,364,510,000 |
| Base EBIT marginSIMON PROPERTY GROUP, INC. FY2025 10-K (accession 0001104659-26-019419): us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss 3,175,396,000 / revenue 6,364,505,000 = 49.89%, FY2025. | 49.9% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 11% → 9% → 7% → 6% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.2% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 1.33 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesSIMON PROPERTY GROUP, INC. FY2025 10-K (accession 0001104659-26-019419): WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding = 326,366,632 shares, FY2025. | 326M |
| Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 21:02 UTC | $202.49 |
Change SPG's assumptions
The discount-rate dial and the editable model
ProChange growth, margin and WACC yourself — Pro (7-day free trial, card required).
What does Simon Property Group, Inc. do?
What does it do?
Simon Property Group, Inc. is a self-administered and self-managed real estate investment trust (REIT). It operates in the REIT - Retail industry (Real Estate sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 3,100 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $6.4B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $46 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 46.0%), after a 81% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 66.6% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks stretched: carries heavy debt (5.0× equity), may struggle to cover its short-term bills (0.3× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
Who at SPG filed insider trades?
| Date | Insider | Relationship | What happened | Value | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roe Peggy | Director | Open-market buy | $17,844.64 | Form 4 for Roe Peggy (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| STEWART MARTA R | Director | Open-market buy | $40,353.22 | Form 4 for STEWART MARTA R (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Smith Daniel C. | Director | Open-market buy | $70,973.00 | Form 4 for Smith Daniel C. (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| SELIG STEFAN M | Director | Open-market buy | $42,178.24 | Form 4 for SELIG STEFAN M (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| RODKIN GARY M | Director | Open-market buy | $47,044.96 | Form 4 for RODKIN GARY M (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| LEWIS RANDALL J | Director | Open-market buy | $13,180.70 | Form 4 for LEWIS RANDALL J (opens sec.gov in a new tab) |
A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans
Common questions
What is SPG's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's base-case DCF fair value for Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG) is $46.79 per share, versus a market price of $202.49 (333% above fair value).
Is SPG overvalued or undervalued?
On our DCF model SPG looks overvalued vs fair value at $202.49. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for SPG?
A WACC of 9.9% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Simon Property Group stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's dcf fair value for Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG) is $46.79 against a market price of $202.49. Our read: 333% above fair value. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Simon Property Group (SPG) DCF valuation and fair value
Our dcf fair value for Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG) is $46.79, built on a 9.9% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Simon Property Group stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. Above about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative. It solves for revenue growth alone — holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed — so a price well above our cash-flow model's value has nowhere to go but growth, and the solver returns a rate the model can't reconcile. Read it as "the price implies growth we can't justify", not as a forecast. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $202.49. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Simon Property Group (SPG) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG): Roe Peggy, Director, open-market buy on 2026-09-30. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.
Stocks below our fair value instead
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Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.