STAG · Intrinsic value
Is STAG Industrial, Inc. (STAG) overvalued or undervalued?
STAG Industrial, Inc. (STAG) trades at the delayed market price of $35.83 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of 22.2% a year for 5 years. TickerWorth's dcf fair value is $10.32 a share (247% above fair value), as of Oct 19, 2026. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from SEC filings and market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
Is STAG overvalued?
- DCF fair value
- $10.32
- Market price
- $35.83
- Downside to fair value
- 71.2%
- Verdict
- 247% above fair value
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 22.2% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 6.0% a year on average over the same horizon.
What is STAG's TickerWorth Score?
Middle of the pack — real strengths and real weaknesses
Compared with Real Estate companies in US
Its strongest point: looks cheap on the numbers. Its weakest: recent price trend has been weak.
- Value · 62 of 100
Cheaper than 62% of Real Estate companies in US
- Price vs worth · — of 100
- Quality · 61 of 100
More profitable than 61% of Real Estate companies in US
- Financial health · 55 of 100
Financially stronger than 55% of Real Estate companies in US
- Growth · 38 of 100
Growing faster than 38% of Real Estate companies in US
- Momentum · 12 of 100
Outperformed 12% of Real Estate companies in US over the past year
Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored
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STAG DCF valuation: what the price assumes
At a recent price of $35.83, STAG Industrial, Inc. (STAG) trades 247% above TickerWorth's base-case discounted-cash-flow (DCF) fair value of $10.32 per share — meaning the market currently prices STAG overvalued vs our estimate of what the business is intrinsically worth. Our fair value sits below the market, an implied -71.2% move to close the gap if the business performs in line with our assumptions. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation — the value moves with the inputs, which you can test yourself using the WACC slider below.
Read the full reasoning
The valuation discounts STAG Industrial, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 8.3%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 77% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 22.2% annual revenue growth for STAG. Our base case instead compounds to about 6.0% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in materially faster growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, STAG's modeled DCF value ranges from about $2.56 to $29.70 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what STAG Industrial, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of STAG's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind STAG's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueSTAG Industrial, Inc. FY2025 10-K (accession 0001479094-26-000009): us-gaap:Revenues, FY2025 full year. | $845,180,000 |
| Base EBIT marginSTAG Industrial, Inc. FY2025 10-K (accession 0001479094-26-000009): derived: revenue 845,184,000 − CostsAndExpenses 528,241,000 = 316,943,000 (no operating-income tag) = 37.50%, FY2025. | 37.5% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 8% → 7% → 6% → 5% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.1% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 0.96 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesSTAG Industrial, Inc. FY2025 10-K (accession 0001479094-26-000009): WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding = 187,174,000 shares, FY2025. | 187M |
| Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 21:42 UTC | $35.83 |
Change STAG's assumptions
The discount-rate dial and the editable model
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What does STAG Industrial, Inc. do?
What does it do?
STAG Industrial, Inc. is a real estate investment trust focused on the acquisition, development, ownership and operation of industrial properties throughout the United States. It operates in the REIT - Industrial industry (Real Estate sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 93 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $845M in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $37 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 37.0%), after a 80% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 28.1% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks mixed: carries modest debt (0.9× equity), comfortably covers its short-term bills (1.8× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
Who at STAG filed insider trades?
| Date | Insider | Relationship | What happened | Value | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MARR CHRISTOPHER P | Director | Grant / award | $16,249.53 | Form 4 for MARR CHRISTOPHER P (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| COLBERT VIRGIS | Director | Grant / award | $16,249.53 | Form 4 for COLBERT VIRGIS (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Wilbon Vicki Lundy | Director | Grant / award | $16,249.53 | Form 4 for Wilbon Vicki Lundy (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Chin Jit Kee | Director | Grant / award | $22,482.72 | Form 4 for Chin Jit Kee (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Dilley Michelle | Director | Grant / award | $20,609.16 | Form 4 for Dilley Michelle (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Furber Jeffrey D. | Director | Grant / award | $21,221.67 | Form 4 for Furber Jeffrey D. (opens sec.gov in a new tab) |
A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans
Common questions
What is STAG's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's base-case DCF fair value for STAG Industrial, Inc. (STAG) is $10.32 per share, versus a market price of $35.83 (247% above fair value).
Is STAG overvalued or undervalued?
On our DCF model STAG looks overvalued vs fair value at $35.83. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for STAG?
A WACC of 8.3% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is STAG Industrial stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's dcf fair value for STAG Industrial, Inc. (STAG) is $10.32 against a market price of $35.83. Our read: 247% above fair value. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
STAG Industrial (STAG) DCF valuation and fair value
Our dcf fair value for STAG Industrial, Inc. (STAG) is $10.32, built on a 8.3% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into STAG Industrial stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 22.2% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 6.0% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $35.83. A model estimate, not investment advice.
STAG Industrial (STAG) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for STAG Industrial, Inc. (STAG): MARR CHRISTOPHER P, Director, grant / award on 2026-10-15. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.
Stocks below our fair value instead
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.