STLD · Intrinsic value
Is Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 20, 2026, TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) at $109.60 – $441.08, too broad a range to say where the delayed market price of $237.81 sits in it, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from SEC filings and market data · Updated Oct 20, 2026 · How these pages are made
What is STLD worth?
- Fair-value range
- $109.60 – $441.08
- Market price
- $237.81
- Gap to fair value
- —
- Verdict
- Too wide to call
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. Above about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative. It solves for revenue growth alone — holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed — so a price well above our cash-flow model's value has nowhere to go but growth, and the solver returns a rate the model can't reconcile. Read it as "the price implies growth we can't justify", not as a forecast.
What is STLD's TickerWorth Score?
Middle of the pack — real strengths and real weaknesses
Compared with Basic Materials companies in US
Its strongest point: growing quickly. Its weakest: looks expensive on the numbers.
- Value · 44 of 100
Cheaper than 44% of Basic Materials companies in US
- Price vs worth · 56 of 100
- Quality · 46 of 100
More profitable than 46% of Basic Materials companies in US
- Financial health · 61 of 100
Financially stronger than 61% of Basic Materials companies in US
- Growth · 72 of 100
Growing faster than 72% of Basic Materials companies in US
- Momentum · 69 of 100
Outperformed 69% of Basic Materials companies in US over the past year
Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored
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Why STLD gets a range, not one number
At a recent price of $237.81, Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) sits inside a range too wide to call either way: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $109.60 and $441.08 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
Read the full reasoning
The valuation discounts Steel Dynamics, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 11.6%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 71% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — STLD would need sustained revenue growth of more than 25%/yr to justify today's price, against about 11.8% a year compounded in our base case. We don't quote a precise figure here, because past about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative: it solves for revenue growth alone, holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed, so a price well above our fair value has nowhere to go but growth. The honest reading is that the price implies growth this model can't reconcile — not that we forecast it.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, STLD's modeled DCF value ranges from about $82.23 to $157.56 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Steel Dynamics, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of STLD's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind STLD's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueSteel Dynamics, Inc. FY2025 10-K (accession 0001104659-26-021395): us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, FY2025 full year. | $18,176,580,000 |
| Base EBIT marginSteel Dynamics, Inc. FY2025 10-K (accession 0001104659-26-021395): us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss 1,475,986,000 / revenue 18,176,581,000 = 8.12%, FY2025. | 8.1% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 20% → 16% → 12% → 8% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.2% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 1.51 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesSteel Dynamics, Inc. FY2025 10-K (accession 0001104659-26-021395): WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding = 148,404,000 shares, FY2025. | 148M |
| Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-20 18:22 UTC | $237.81 |
Change STLD's assumptions
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What does Steel Dynamics, Inc. do?
What does it do?
Steel Dynamics, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a steel producer and metal recycler in the United States. It operates through four segments: Steel Operations, Metals Recycling Operations, Steel Fabrication Operations, and Aluminum Operations. It operates in the Steel industry (Basic Materials sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 14,400 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $18.2B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $15 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 15.5%), after a 16% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 8.8% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks mixed: carries modest debt (0.4× equity), comfortably covers its short-term bills (3.1× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
Who at STLD filed insider trades?
| Date | Insider | Relationship | What happened | Value | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sierra Luis Manuel | Director | Grant / award | — | Form 4 for Sierra Luis Manuel (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Seaman Bradley S | Director | Grant / award | — | Form 4 for Seaman Bradley S (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Hamann Jennifer L | Director | Grant / award | — | Form 4 for Hamann Jennifer L (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| DOLAN TRACI M | Director | Grant / award | — | Form 4 for DOLAN TRACI M (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Cornew Kenneth W. | Director | Grant / award | — | Form 4 for Cornew Kenneth W. (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| BARGABOS SHEREE L | Director | Grant / award | — | Form 4 for BARGABOS SHEREE L (opens sec.gov in a new tab) |
A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans
Common questions
What is STLD's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) between $109.60 and $441.08 per share, versus a market price of $237.81. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value, so we publish the range.
Is STLD overvalued or undervalued?
At $237.81 the price sits inside a range too wide to call either way. We don't call STLD overvalued or undervalued from a range this wide. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for STLD?
A WACC of 11.6% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Steel Dynamics stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair-value range for Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) is $109.60 – $441.08 against a market price of $237.81. Too wide to call. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Steel Dynamics (STLD) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair-value range for Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) is $109.60 – $441.08, built on a 11.6% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Steel Dynamics stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. Above about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative. It solves for revenue growth alone — holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed — so a price well above our cash-flow model's value has nowhere to go but growth, and the solver returns a rate the model can't reconcile. Read it as "the price implies growth we can't justify", not as a forecast. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $237.81. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Steel Dynamics (STLD) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD): Sierra Luis Manuel, Director, grant / award on 2026-10-09. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.
Other ways into the coverage
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.