What is STZ's intrinsic value?

TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) between $62.66 and $322.42 per share, versus a market price of $131.35. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value, so we publish the range.

Is STZ overvalued or undervalued?

At $131.35 the price sits inside a range too wide to call either way. We don't call STZ overvalued or undervalued from a range this wide. This is an educational estimate, not advice.

What discount rate is used for STZ?

A WACC of 7.8% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.

Is Constellation Brands stock undervalued?

TickerWorth's fair-value range for Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) is $62.66 – $322.42 against a market price of $131.35. Too wide to call. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.

Constellation Brands (STZ) DCF valuation and fair value

Our fair-value range for Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) is $62.66 – $322.42, built on a 7.8% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.

What growth is priced into Constellation Brands stock?

Today's price implies revenue growth of −4.7% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 1.7% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $131.35. A model estimate, not investment advice.

Constellation Brands (STZ) insider trading

The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ): Daniels Jennifer, Director, option exercise on 2026-07-10. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.

STZ · Intrinsic value

Is Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) overvalued or undervalued?

Name: Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) DCF intrinsic value
Creator: TickerWorth

As of Oct 19, 2026, TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) at $62.66 – $322.42, too broad a range to say where the delayed market price of $131.35 sits in it, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.

Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from a hand-researched model · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made

Open full STZ analysis

What is STZ worth?

Fair-value range: $62.66 – $322.42
Market price: $131.35
Gap to fair value: —
Verdict: Too wide to call

Price as of 19 Oct 2026, 13:15 UTC · Prices are delayed.Our valuation lenses disagree too widely on this company for us to publish a single number, so we publish the range instead. We do not call it over- or undervalued from a spread this wide.

Fair-value range against the delayed market price: Too wide to call.

Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of −4.7% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 1.7% a year on average over the same horizon.

What is STZ's TickerWorth Score?

B62/100

Scores higher than most companies we compare it with

Compared with Consumer Defensive companies in US

Its strongest point: a profitable, high-quality business. Its weakest: balance sheet looks stretched.

Value · 67 of 100
Cheaper than 67% of Consumer Defensive companies in US
Price vs worth · 78 of 100
Quality · 80 of 100
More profitable than 80% of Consumer Defensive companies in US
Financial health · 29 of 100
Financially stronger than 29% of Consumer Defensive companies in US
Growth · 51 of 100
Growing faster than 51% of Consumer Defensive companies in US
Momentum · 52 of 100
Outperformed 52% of Consumer Defensive companies in US over the past year

Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored 19 Oct 2026, 13:15 UTC

Get the Undervalued Company of the Week.

Where the numbers come from

Hand-researched model

What the modeller flagged

TERMINAL VALUE IS ~78% OF ENTERPRISE VALUE - above the 75% line. With growth near zero for two years and 2.5% thereafter, most of the value is the steady state; the sensitivity range is the honest output, not the cents.
YEAR 1 IS GUIDED AT 0% AND RESULTS LAND 2026-10-06 (after the close). Q2 (June-August) is the peak beer season. If guidance moves to a negative range, Year 1 will be re-entered as guided and the site will show this model as a range only; on its own, -1% instead of 0% costs ~$2/share. The value is far more sensitive to whether volumes keep falling for YEARS: -1% a year for all five forecast years gives $141.28.
BETA NORMALIZED UP from the published 0.429 to 0.80 (own 10-year monthly regression, the method used for KO and PEP). This LOWERS the value by ~$68/share versus the published figure ($230.86) and by ~$28 versus a Blume-adjusted 0.62 ($191.69). The 10-year window includes the Canopy-cannabis years, which likely overstates today's risk; I keep it because STZ's real risks (tariffs, immigration policy, one-country sourcing) are not captured by a 5-year window that happened to be calm for the stock until 2025.
CAPEX FADES FROM ~$800M (8.9% of sales) TO 6.5% - an estimate with no management guide behind it (the FY2028 outlook was withdrawn). Holding 8.9% forever gives $140.87.
MEXICO CONCENTRATION AND POLICY RISK ARE NOT IN THE CASH FLOWS. All of STZ's beer is brewed at three Mexican breweries (Nava, Obregon, Veracruz) and imported; aluminum tariffs already cost margin in FY2026. Beer imports from Mexico have so far been treated as USMCA-compliant; a broad tariff on them, or a deeper hit to the Hispanic consumer (about half of the core brands' drinkers, per company commentary reported in 2025), would show up as lower margins and volumes than this file carries. A margin that fades from 32.5% to 28% by Year 5 gives $135.55.
SBC ($67.7M in FY2026, 0.7% of sales) is expensed inside operating income and not added back; dilution is carried by the diluted share count, which buybacks are shrinking.

Why STZ gets a range, not one number

At a recent price of $131.35, Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) sits inside a range too wide to call either way: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $62.66 and $322.42 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.

Read the full reasoning

The valuation discounts Constellation Brands, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 7.8%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 78% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.

Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly -4.7% annual revenue growth for STZ. Our base case instead compounds to about 1.7% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in slower growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.

Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, STZ's modeled DCF value ranges from about $94.71 to $354.76 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.

How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Constellation Brands, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of STZ's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.

Every input behind STZ's DCF

Input	Value	Source
Base-year revenueConstellation Brands Q4 FY2026 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0000016918-26-000008, filed 2026-04-08); same totals in the FY2026 10-K (accession 0000016918-26-000011, filed 2026-04-22): CONTINUING PERIMETER, NOT THE HEADLINE. Reported FY2026 (year to 2026-02-28) net sales were $9,139M (Beer $8,315.2M + Wine & Spirits $823.8M), -10% YoY. That figure still carries $142M of sales from the mainstream wine brands sold on 2025-06-02 (the '2025 Wine Divestitures'), booked between 1 March and 1 June 2025 before closing; the company's own FY2027 guidance explicitly excludes that $142M (Q1 FY2027 release, Outlook). Base = $9,139M - $142M = $8,997M: Beer $8,315.2M (92%) + remaining Wine & Spirits $681.8M. Using the continuing base means management's ORGANIC growth guidance can be applied to it directly. CROSS-CHECK, Q1 FY2027 (to 2026-05-31): net sales $2,433M vs $2,373M organic prior-year quarter (+2.5%; the release rounds to +3% organic); Beer +2% to $2,283.5M.	$8,997,000,000	Constellation Brands Q4 FY2026 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0000016918-26-000008, filed 2026-04-08); same totals in the FY2026 10-K (accession 0000016918-26-000011, filed 2026-04-22): CONTINUING PERIMETER, NOT THE HEADLINE. Reported FY2026 (year to 2026-02-28) net sales were $9,139M (Beer $8,315.2M + Wine & Spirits $823.8M), -10% YoY. That figure still carries $142M of sales from the mainstream wine brands sold on 2025-06-02 (the '2025 Wine Divestitures'), booked between 1 March and 1 June 2025 before closing; the company's own FY2027 guidance explicitly excludes that $142M (Q1 FY2027 release, Outlook). Base = $9,139M - $142M = $8,997M: Beer $8,315.2M (92%) + remaining Wine & Spirits $681.8M. Using the continuing base means management's ORGANIC growth guidance can be applied to it directly. CROSS-CHECK, Q1 FY2027 (to 2026-05-31): net sales $2,433M vs $2,373M organic prior-year quarter (+2.5%; the release rounds to +3% organic); Beer +2% to $2,283.5M.
Base EBIT marginConstellation Brands Q4 FY2026 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0000016918-26-000008), segment and comparable-adjustment reconciliations: COMPARABLE operating income on the continuing perimeter. FY2026 GAAP operating income $2,721.4M (29.8% of $9,139M); comparable $2,943.2M (32.2%) after $221.8M of net comparable adjustments: asset impairments $109.8M, 2025 Restructuring Initiative $72.2M, transition-services costs for the divested wine $35.7M, loss on sale of business $31.9M, CEO severance $7.8M and reconfiguration $15.2M, less $55.0M of derivative and other gains. Most of those charges belong to the wine exit and are gone with it, and management guides FY2027 REPORTED and comparable operating margin to the same 32-33% (no charges expected). I then take out the divested wine's contribution: $24.5M of CAM in Mar-May 2025 (Q1 FY2027 release, footnote 1), treated as an upper bound because its own marketing and SG&A are not disclosed. ($2,943.2M - $24.5M) / $8,997M = 32.44%. Segment build: Beer 38.0% ($3,161.0M), Wine & Spirits $10.5M, Corporate -$228.3M. CROSS-CHECK: Q1 FY2027 comparable OI $834M on $2,433M = 34.3% (Q1 is a seasonally strong quarter; Beer margin 39.0%). The GAAP-vs-comparable choice is a judgement that RAISES the value: STZ has booked some 'non-recurring' charge every year; the forecast takes a 50bp haircut from Year 2 for that reason (see forecast.ebit_margin).	32.4%	Constellation Brands Q4 FY2026 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0000016918-26-000008), segment and comparable-adjustment reconciliations: COMPARABLE operating income on the continuing perimeter. FY2026 GAAP operating income $2,721.4M (29.8% of $9,139M); comparable $2,943.2M (32.2%) after $221.8M of net comparable adjustments: asset impairments $109.8M, 2025 Restructuring Initiative $72.2M, transition-services costs for the divested wine $35.7M, loss on sale of business $31.9M, CEO severance $7.8M and reconfiguration $15.2M, less $55.0M of derivative and other gains. Most of those charges belong to the wine exit and are gone with it, and management guides FY2027 REPORTED and comparable operating margin to the same 32-33% (no charges expected). I then take out the divested wine's contribution: $24.5M of CAM in Mar-May 2025 (Q1 FY2027 release, footnote 1), treated as an upper bound because its own marketing and SG&A are not disclosed. ($2,943.2M - $24.5M) / $8,997M = 32.44%. Segment build: Beer 38.0% ($3,161.0M), Wine & Spirits $10.5M, Corporate -$228.3M. CROSS-CHECK: Q1 FY2027 comparable OI $834M on $2,433M = 34.3% (Q1 is a seasonally strong quarter; Beer margin 39.0%). The GAAP-vs-comparable choice is a judgement that RAISES the value: STZ has booked some 'non-recurring' charge every year; the forecast takes a 50bp haircut from Year 2 for that reason (see forecast.ebit_margin).
Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast	0% → 2% → 2% → 2% → 2%	ESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast
Risk-free rateUS 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. Shared by every model in this tracker.	5.2%	US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. Shared by every model in this tracker.
BetaESTIMATEAssumption — Yahoo Finance 5Y-monthly beta via yfinance (0.429, read 2026-10-05) + own 10-year monthly regression vs S&P 500: NORMALIZED UP from the published 0.429 to 0.80, the SAME METHOD this tracker used for Coca-Cola (0.342 -> 0.47) and PepsiCo (0.361 -> 0.48): my 10-year monthly regression of yfinance adjusted closes against the S&P 500 (120 months, Nov-2016 to Sep-2026) gives 0.80; the same regression over 5 years gives 0.44, matching the published figure. CONSERVATIVE: it LOWERS the value. Reason: at 0.429 STZ's cost of equity would be 7.39%, about 110bp above the ~6.3% it would pay on a new 10-year bond; equity behind a BBB-tier balance sheet levered ~3x EBITDA cannot sensibly be priced that close to its debt. Caveat on the 10-year window: it includes 2018-2020, when STZ's Canopy Growth cannabis stake made the stock unusually volatile, which pushes the estimate up. Midpoint of the defensible range is ~0.62 (Blume-adjusted published beta); that would raise the value by about $28/share ($191.69), and the published 0.429 by about $68 ($230.86), which is why the beta is the single biggest judgement in this file.	0.80	ESTIMATEAssumption — Yahoo Finance 5Y-monthly beta via yfinance (0.429, read 2026-10-05) + own 10-year monthly regression vs S&P 500: NORMALIZED UP from the published 0.429 to 0.80, the SAME METHOD this tracker used for Coca-Cola (0.342 -> 0.47) and PepsiCo (0.361 -> 0.48): my 10-year monthly regression of yfinance adjusted closes against the S&P 500 (120 months, Nov-2016 to Sep-2026) gives 0.80; the same regression over 5 years gives 0.44, matching the published figure. CONSERVATIVE: it LOWERS the value. Reason: at 0.429 STZ's cost of equity would be 7.39%, about 110bp above the ~6.3% it would pay on a new 10-year bond; equity behind a BBB-tier balance sheet levered ~3x EBITDA cannot sensibly be priced that close to its debt. Caveat on the 10-year window: it includes 2018-2020, when STZ's Canopy Growth cannabis stake made the stock unusually volatile, which pushes the estimate up. Midpoint of the defensible range is ~0.62 (Blume-adjusted published beta); that would raise the value by about $28/share ($191.69), and the published 0.429 by about $68 ($230.86), which is why the beta is the single biggest judgement in this file.
Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability. For STZ it is a real judgement, not a formality: US beer volumes are in long-run decline and STZ's growth is share gains plus price, so 2.5% forever assumes Mexican import brands keep taking share for decades. 2.0% takes about $16/share off ($146.95); 3.0% adds about $20 ($182.86). Today's price needs only ~0.6% forever. Must remain < WACC (7.75%).	2.5%	ESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability. For STZ it is a real judgement, not a formality: US beer volumes are in long-run decline and STZ's growth is share gains plus price, so 2.5% forever assumes Mexican import brands keep taking share for decades. 2.0% takes about $16/share off ($146.95); 3.0% adds about $20 ($182.86). Today's price needs only ~0.6% forever. Must remain < WACC (7.75%).
Diluted sharesConstellation Brands Q1 FY2027 10-Q (accession 0000016918-26-000029, filed 2026-07-01), income statement: Weighted-average diluted shares, Q1 FY2027 (three months to 2026-05-31): 172.407M (basic 172.186M). Shares outstanding were already lower, 170.75M on 2026-06-26, because buybacks are running ($324M repurchased in FY2027 through June; $924M in FY2026; $4.0B authorization to Feb-2028). Using the weighted count is slightly conservative (~1% fewer dollars per share than the spot count).	172M	Constellation Brands Q1 FY2027 10-Q (accession 0000016918-26-000029, filed 2026-07-01), income statement: Weighted-average diluted shares, Q1 FY2027 (three months to 2026-05-31): 172.407M (basic 172.186M). Shares outstanding were already lower, 170.75M on 2026-06-26, because buybacks are running ($324M repurchased in FY2027 through June; $924M in FY2026; $4.0B authorization to Feb-2028). Using the weighted count is slightly conservative (~1% fewer dollars per share than the spot count).
Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 13:15 UTC	$131.35	Delayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 13:15 UTC

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What does Constellation Brands, Inc. do?

What does it do?

Constellation Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces, imports, markets, and sells beer, wine, and spirits in the United States, Canada, Mexico, New Zealand, and Italy. It offers beer under the Corona Extra, Corona Familiar, Corona Sunbrew, Corona Light, Corona Non-Alcoholic, Corona Premier, Modelo Especial, Modelo Chelada, Modelo Negra, Modelo Spiked Aguas Frescas, Modelo Oro, Modelo Noche Especial, Victoria, Vicky Chamoy, and Pacifico brand names. It operates in the Beverages - Brewers industry (Consumer Defensive sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 9,400 people.

How does it make money?

The business turns $9.2B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $34 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 33.6%), after a 53% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 20.9% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.

Is it financially healthy?

Financially it looks stretched: carries moderate debt (1.2× equity), may struggle to cover its short-term bills (1.0× current ratio), and is currently profitable.

Who at STZ filed insider trades?

Recent insider filings for Constellation Brands, Inc.
Date	Insider	Relationship	What happened	Value	Filing
10 Jul 2026	Daniels Jennifer	Director	Option exercise	—	Form 4 for Daniels Jennifer (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
10 Jul 2026	Clark Christy	Director	Option exercise	—	Form 4 for Clark Christy (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
10 Jul 2026	Zaramella Luca	Director	Option exercise	—	Form 4 for Zaramella Luca (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
10 Jul 2026	MCCARTHY DANIEL J	Director	Option exercise	—	Form 4 for MCCARTHY DANIEL J (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
10 Jul 2026	Madero Garza Jose Manuel	Director	Option exercise	—	Form 4 for Madero Garza Jose Manuel (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
10 Jul 2026	Madero Garza Jose Manuel	Director	Shares withheld (tax)	$41,692.66	Form 4 for Madero Garza Jose Manuel (opens sec.gov in a new tab)

A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans

Common questions

What is STZ's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) between $62.66 and $322.42 per share, versus a market price of $131.35. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value, so we publish the range.
Is STZ overvalued or undervalued?
At $131.35 the price sits inside a range too wide to call either way. We don't call STZ overvalued or undervalued from a range this wide. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for STZ?
A WACC of 7.8% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Constellation Brands stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair-value range for Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) is $62.66 – $322.42 against a market price of $131.35. Too wide to call. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Constellation Brands (STZ) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair-value range for Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) is $62.66 – $322.42, built on a 7.8% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Constellation Brands stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of −4.7% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 1.7% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $131.35. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Constellation Brands (STZ) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ): Daniels Jennifer, Director, option exercise on 2026-07-10. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.