SW · Intrinsic value
Is Smurfit Westrock Plc (SW) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 19, 2026, TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Smurfit Westrock Plc (SW) at $32.81 – $106.18, too broad a range to say where the delayed market price of $41.45 sits in it, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from SEC filings and market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
What is SW worth?
- Fair-value range
- $32.81 – $106.18
- Market price
- $41.45
- Gap to fair value
- —
- Verdict
- Too wide to call
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 5.9% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 10.2% a year on average over the same horizon.
What is SW's TickerWorth Score?
Middle of the pack — real strengths and real weaknesses
Compared with Consumer Cyclical companies in US
Its strongest point: trades below our estimate of what it's worth. Its weakest: profitability is weak.
- Value · 66 of 100
Cheaper than 66% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
- Price vs worth · 83 of 100
- Quality · 19 of 100
More profitable than 19% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
- Financial health · 42 of 100
Financially stronger than 42% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
- Growth · 62 of 100
Growing faster than 62% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
- Momentum · 58 of 100
Outperformed 58% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US over the past year
Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored
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Why SW gets a range, not one number
At a recent price of $41.45, Smurfit Westrock Plc (SW) sits inside a range too wide to call either way: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $32.81 and $106.18 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
Read the full reasoning
The valuation discounts Smurfit Westrock Plc's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 8.2%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 80% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 5.9% annual revenue growth for SW. Our base case instead compounds to about 10.2% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in slower growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, SW's modeled DCF value ranges from about $33.95 to $119.92 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Smurfit Westrock Plc would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of SW's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind SW's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueSmurfit Westrock plc FY2025 10-K (accession 0001628280-26-012555): us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, FY2025 full year. | $31,179,000,000 |
| Base EBIT marginSmurfit Westrock plc FY2025 10-K (accession 0001628280-26-012555): us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss 1,719,000,000 / revenue 31,179,000,000 = 5.51%, FY2025. | 5.5% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 17% → 13% → 10% → 7% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.2% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 0.93 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesSmurfit Westrock plc FY2025 10-K (accession 0001628280-26-012555): WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding = 526,000,000 shares, FY2025. | 526M |
| Market priceLast known price · as of 2026-10-19 19:26 UTC | $41.45 |
Change SW's assumptions
The discount-rate dial and the editable model
ProChange growth, margin and WACC yourself — Pro (7-day free trial, card required).
What does Smurfit Westrock Plc do?
What does it do?
Smurfit Westrock Plc, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distributes, and sells containerboard, corrugated containers, and other paper-based packaging products in North America, South America, Europe, Asia, Africa, Australia, and internationally. The company produces containerboard and paperboard; packaging of corrugated containers; consumer packaging; and offers solid board, kraft paper, and graphic board, as well as other packaging products, such as solidboard packaging, paper sacks and bag-in-box. It operates in the Packaging & Containers industry (Consumer Cyclical sector), headquartered in Ireland. The company employs roughly 96,000 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $31.2B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $5 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 5.5%), after a 18% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 1.6% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks mixed: carries modest debt (0.8× equity), can just cover its short-term bills (1.4× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
Who at SW filed insider trades?
| Date | Insider | Relationship | What happened | Value | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMURFIT ANTHONY P J | Director, President and CEO | Grant / award | — | Form 4 for SMURFIT ANTHONY P J (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Page Irene | Chief Accounting Officer | Grant / award | — | Form 4 for Page Irene (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Mayer Saverio | See remarks | Grant / award | — | Form 4 for Mayer Saverio (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Henao Alvaro | See remarks | Grant / award | — | Form 4 for Henao Alvaro (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Sellier Laurent | See remarks | Grant / award | — | Form 4 for Sellier Laurent (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Garren Ben | See remarks | Grant / award | — | Form 4 for Garren Ben (opens sec.gov in a new tab) |
A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans
Common questions
What is SW's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Smurfit Westrock Plc (SW) between $32.81 and $106.18 per share, versus a market price of $41.45. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value, so we publish the range.
Is SW overvalued or undervalued?
At $41.45 the price sits inside a range too wide to call either way. We don't call SW overvalued or undervalued from a range this wide. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for SW?
A WACC of 8.2% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Smurfit Westrock stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair-value range for Smurfit Westrock Plc (SW) is $32.81 – $106.18 against a market price of $41.45. Too wide to call. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Smurfit Westrock (SW) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair-value range for Smurfit Westrock Plc (SW) is $32.81 – $106.18, built on a 8.2% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Smurfit Westrock stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 5.9% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 10.2% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $41.45. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Smurfit Westrock (SW) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Smurfit Westrock Plc (SW): SMURFIT ANTHONY P J, Director, President and CEO, grant / award on 2026-09-10. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.
Other ways into the coverage
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.