TDG · Intrinsic value
Is TransDigm Group Incorporated (TDG) overvalued or undervalued?
TransDigm Group Incorporated (TDG) trades at the delayed market price of $1,140.26 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of 14.3% a year for 5 years. TickerWorth's fair value is $1,007.42 a share (13% above fair value), as of Oct 19, 2026. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from SEC filings and market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
Is TDG overvalued?
- Fair value
- $1,007.42
- Market price
- $1,140.26
- Downside to fair value
- 11.7%
- Verdict
- 13% above fair value
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 14.3% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 10.7% a year on average over the same horizon.
What is TDG's TickerWorth Score?
Middle of the pack — real strengths and real weaknesses
Compared with Industrials companies in US
Its strongest point: a profitable, high-quality business. Its weakest: looks expensive on the numbers.
- Value · 32 of 100
Cheaper than 32% of Industrials companies in US
- Price vs worth · 41 of 100
- Quality · 97 of 100
More profitable than 97% of Industrials companies in US
- Financial health · 39 of 100
Financially stronger than 39% of Industrials companies in US
- Growth · 62 of 100
Growing faster than 62% of Industrials companies in US
- Momentum · 20 of 100
Outperformed 20% of Industrials companies in US over the past year
Confidence: High confidence · Scored
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TDG DCF valuation: what the price assumes
At a recent price of $1,140, TransDigm Group Incorporated (TDG) trades 13% above TickerWorth's blended fair value of $1,007 per share — a discounted-cash-flow model cross-checked against peer multiples and asset value — meaning the market currently prices TDG overvalued vs our estimate of what the business is intrinsically worth. Our fair value sits below the market, an implied -11.7% move to close the gap if the business performs in line with our assumptions. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation — the value moves with the inputs, which you can test yourself using the WACC slider below.
Read the full reasoning
One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values TDG at about $948.06 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.
The valuation discounts TransDigm Group Incorporated's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 8.2%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 78% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 14.3% annual revenue growth for TDG. Our base case instead compounds to about 10.7% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in materially faster growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, TDG's modeled DCF value ranges from about $544.49 to $1,985 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what TransDigm Group Incorporated would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of TDG's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind TDG's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueTransDigm Group Incorporated FY2025 10-K (accession 0001260221-25-000081): us-gaap:Revenues, FY2025 full year. | $8,831,000,000 |
| Base EBIT marginTransDigm Group Incorporated FY2025 10-K (accession 0001260221-25-000081): us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss 4,165,000,000 / revenue 8,831,000,000 = 47.16%, FY2025. | 47.2% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 18% → 14% → 11% → 7% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.1% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 0.94 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesTransDigm Group Incorporated FY2025 10-K (accession 0001260221-25-000081): WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding = 58,200,000 shares, FY2025. | 58M |
| Market priceLast known price · as of 2026-10-19 17:45 UTC | $1,140 |
Change TDG's assumptions
The discount-rate dial and the editable model
ProChange growth, margin and WACC yourself — Pro (7-day free trial, card required).
What does TransDigm Group Incorporated do?
What does it do?
TransDigm Group Incorporated designs, produces, and supplies aircraft components in the United States and internationally. The Power & Control segment offers mechanical/electro-mechanical actuators and controls, ignition systems and engine technology, specialized pumps and valves, power conditioning devices, specialized AC/DC electric motors and generators, batteries and chargers, databus and power controls, sensor products, switches and relay panels, hoists, winches and lifting devices, cargo loading and handling systems, delivery systems, and electronic components. It operates in the Aerospace & Defense industry (Industrials sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 16,500 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $8.8B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $46 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 46.0%), after a 60% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 21.3% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks mixed: comfortably covers its short-term bills (3.0× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
Who at TDG filed insider trades?
| Date | Insider | Relationship | What happened | Value | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reiss Joel | Co-Chief Operating Officer | Option exercise | $1,168,377.00 | Form 4 for Reiss Joel (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Reiss Joel | Co-Chief Operating Officer | Open-market sale | $22,245.30 | Form 4 for Reiss Joel (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Reiss Joel | Co-Chief Operating Officer | Open-market sale | $111,358.36 | Form 4 for Reiss Joel (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Reiss Joel | Co-Chief Operating Officer | Open-market sale | $111,482.05 | Form 4 for Reiss Joel (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Reiss Joel | Co-Chief Operating Officer | Open-market sale | $55,801.20 | Form 4 for Reiss Joel (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Reiss Joel | Co-Chief Operating Officer | Open-market sale | $67,026.60 | Form 4 for Reiss Joel (opens sec.gov in a new tab) |
A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans
Common questions
What is TDG's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's blended fair value for TransDigm Group Incorporated (TDG) is $1,007 per share, versus a market price of $1,140 (13% above fair value).
Is TDG overvalued or undervalued?
On our blended fair value TDG looks overvalued vs fair value at $1,140. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for TDG?
A WACC of 8.2% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is TransDigm Group stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair value for TransDigm Group Incorporated (TDG) is $1,007.42 against a market price of $1,140.26. Our read: 13% above fair value. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
TransDigm Group (TDG) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair value for TransDigm Group Incorporated (TDG) is $1,007.42, built on a 8.2% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into TransDigm Group stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 14.3% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 10.7% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $1,140.26. A model estimate, not investment advice.
TransDigm Group (TDG) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for TransDigm Group Incorporated (TDG): Reiss Joel, Co-Chief Operating Officer, option exercise on 2026-10-15. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.
Stocks below our fair value instead
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.