TOU.TO · Intrinsic value
Is Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TOU.TO) overvalued or undervalued?
Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TOU.TO) trades at the delayed market price of CA$65.35 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of 11.5% a year for 5 years. TickerWorth's fair value is CA$52.11 a share (25% above fair value), as of Oct 19, 2026. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
Is TOU.TO overvalued?
- Fair value
- CA$52.11
- Market price
- CA$65.35
- Downside to fair value
- 20.3%
- Verdict
- 25% above fair value
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 11.5% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 9.4% a year on average over the same horizon.
What is TOU.TO's TickerWorth Score?
Scores lower than almost every company we compare it with
Compared with Energy companies in Canada
Its strongest point: strong balance sheet. Its weakest: looks expensive on the numbers.
- Value · 24 of 100
Cheaper than 24% of Energy companies worldwide
- Price vs worth · 32 of 100
- Quality · 37 of 100
More profitable than 37% of Energy companies worldwide
- Financial health · 65 of 100
Financially stronger than 65% of Energy companies worldwide
- Growth · 45 of 100
Growing faster than 45% of Energy companies worldwide
- Momentum · 37 of 100
Outperformed 37% of Energy companies worldwide over the past year
Confidence: High confidence · Scored
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TOU.TO DCF valuation: what the price assumes
At a recent price of C$65.35, Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TOU.TO) trades 25% above TickerWorth's blended fair value of C$52.11 per share — a discounted-cash-flow model cross-checked against peer multiples and asset value — meaning the market currently prices TOU.TO overvalued vs our estimate of what the business is intrinsically worth. Our fair value sits below the market, an implied -20.3% move to close the gap if the business performs in line with our assumptions. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation — the value moves with the inputs, which you can test yourself using the WACC slider below.
Read the full reasoning
One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values TOU.TO at about C$56.04 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.
The valuation discounts Tourmaline Oil Corp.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 7.1%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 82% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 11.5% annual revenue growth for TOU.TO. Our base case instead compounds to about 9.4% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in materially faster growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, TOU.TO's modeled DCF value ranges from about C$35.99 to C$124.56 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Tourmaline Oil Corp. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of TOU.TO's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind TOU.TO's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueLive feed — totalRevenue (TTM) | C$4,805,650,000 |
| Base EBIT marginComputed — trailing operatingMargins, held roughly flat | 19.8% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 15% → 12% → 9% → 7% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.2% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 0.40 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesLive feed — sharesOutstanding | 389M |
| Market priceLast known price · as of 2026-10-19 20:12 UTC | C$65.35 |
Change TOU.TO's assumptions
The discount-rate dial and the editable model
ProChange growth, margin and WACC yourself — Pro (7-day free trial, card required).
What does Tourmaline Oil Corp. do?
What does it do?
Tourmaline Oil Corp. engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of petroleum and natural gas properties in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. It operates in the Oil & Gas E&P industry (Energy sector), headquartered in Canada. The company employs roughly 544 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $4.8B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $20 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 19.8%), after a 49% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 7.9% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks mixed: carries modest debt (0.1× equity), may struggle to cover its short-term bills (0.7× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
TOU.TO insider trading
Insider filings are available for US-listed companies only.
Common questions
What is TOU.TO's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's blended fair value for Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TOU.TO) is C$52.11 per share, versus a market price of C$65.35 (25% above fair value).
Is TOU.TO overvalued or undervalued?
On our blended fair value TOU.TO looks overvalued vs fair value at C$65.35. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for TOU.TO?
A WACC of 7.1% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Tourmaline Oil stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair value for Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TOU.TO) is CA$52.11 against a market price of CA$65.35. Our read: 25% above fair value. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Tourmaline Oil (TOU.TO) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair value for Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TOU.TO) is CA$52.11, built on a 7.1% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Tourmaline Oil stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 11.5% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 9.4% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of CA$65.35. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Tourmaline Oil (TOU.TO) insider trading
We have no recent SEC Form 4 insider filings on file for Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TOU.TO). Form 4 covers US-listed companies only.
Stocks below our fair value instead
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.