TPL · Intrinsic value
Is Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) overvalued or undervalued?
Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) trades at the delayed market price of $345.13 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. TickerWorth's fair value is $161.19 a share (114% above fair value), as of Oct 19, 2026. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from SEC filings and market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
Is TPL overvalued?
- Fair value
- $161.19
- Market price
- $345.13
- Downside to fair value
- 53.3%
- Verdict
- 114% above fair value
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. Above about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative. It solves for revenue growth alone — holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed — so a price well above our cash-flow model's value has nowhere to go but growth, and the solver returns a rate the model can't reconcile. Read it as "the price implies growth we can't justify", not as a forecast.
What is TPL's TickerWorth Score?
Expensive vs our estimate — the business scores well
Compared with Energy companies in US
Its strongest point: a profitable, high-quality business. Its weakest: looks expensive on the numbers.
- Value · 6 of 100
Cheaper than 6% of Energy companies in US
- Price vs worth · 7 of 100
- Quality · 98 of 100
More profitable than 98% of Energy companies in US
- Financial health · 78 of 100
Financially stronger than 78% of Energy companies in US
- Growth · 62 of 100
Growing faster than 62% of Energy companies in US
- Momentum · 14 of 100
Outperformed 14% of Energy companies in US over the past year
Confidence: High confidence · Scored
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TPL DCF valuation: what the price assumes
At a recent price of $345.13, Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) trades 114% above TickerWorth's blended fair value of $161.19 per share — a discounted-cash-flow model cross-checked against peer multiples and asset value — meaning the market currently prices TPL overvalued vs our estimate of what the business is intrinsically worth. Our fair value sits below the market, an implied -53.3% move to close the gap if the business performs in line with our assumptions. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation — the value moves with the inputs, which you can test yourself using the WACC slider below.
Read the full reasoning
One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values TPL at about $205.46 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.
The valuation discounts Texas Pacific Land Corporation's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 8.2%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 79% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — TPL would need sustained revenue growth of more than 25%/yr to justify today's price, against about 13.3% a year compounded in our base case. We don't quote a precise figure here, because past about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative: it solves for revenue growth alone, holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed, so a price well above our fair value has nowhere to go but growth. The honest reading is that the price implies growth this model can't reconcile — not that we forecast it.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, TPL's modeled DCF value ranges from about $146.75 to $355.76 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Texas Pacific Land Corporation would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of TPL's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind TPL's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueTEXAS PACIFIC LAND CORPORATION FY2025 10-K (accession 0001811074-26-000018): us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, FY2025 full year. | $798,190,000 |
| Base EBIT marginTEXAS PACIFIC LAND CORPORATION FY2025 10-K (accession 0001811074-26-000018): us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss 592,161,000 / revenue 798,190,000 = 74.19%, FY2025. | 74.2% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 23% → 18% → 14% → 9% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.3% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 0.62 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesTEXAS PACIFIC LAND CORPORATION FY2025 10-K (accession 0001811074-26-000018): WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding = 69,027,492 shares, FY2025. | 69M |
| Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 17:01 UTC | $345.13 |
Change TPL's assumptions
The discount-rate dial and the editable model
ProChange growth, margin and WACC yourself — Pro (7-day free trial, card required).
What does Texas Pacific Land Corporation do?
What does it do?
Texas Pacific Land Corporation engages in the land and resource management, and water services and operations businesses. The Land and Resource Management segment manages surface acres of land, and oil and gas royalty interest in Permian Basin. It operates in the Oil & Gas E&P industry (Energy sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 114 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $898M in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $78 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 78.2%), after a 93% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 60.3% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks solid: carries moderate debt (1.1× equity), comfortably covers its short-term bills (4.6× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
Who at TPL filed insider trades?
| Date | Insider | Relationship | What happened | Value | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | 10% owner | Open-market buy | $1,363.84 | Form 4 for HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | 10% owner | Open-market buy | $340.12 | Form 4 for HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | 10% owner | Open-market buy | $339.72 | Form 4 for HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | 10% owner | Open-market buy | $340.28 | Form 4 for HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | 10% owner | Open-market buy | $352.95 | Form 4 for HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | 10% owner | Open-market buy | $361.36 | Form 4 for HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC (opens sec.gov in a new tab) |
A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans
Common questions
What is TPL's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's blended fair value for Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) is $161.19 per share, versus a market price of $345.13 (114% above fair value).
Is TPL overvalued or undervalued?
On our blended fair value TPL looks overvalued vs fair value at $345.13. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for TPL?
A WACC of 8.2% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Texas Pacific Land stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair value for Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) is $161.19 against a market price of $345.13. Our read: 114% above fair value. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Texas Pacific Land (TPL) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair value for Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) is $161.19, built on a 8.2% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Texas Pacific Land stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. Above about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative. It solves for revenue growth alone — holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed — so a price well above our cash-flow model's value has nowhere to go but growth, and the solver returns a rate the model can't reconcile. Read it as "the price implies growth we can't justify", not as a forecast. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $345.13. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Texas Pacific Land (TPL) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL): HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC, 10% owner, open-market buy on 2026-09-29. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.
Stocks below our fair value instead
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.