Is TTD overvalued or undervalued?

At $12.26 the price sits inside our range of estimates. We don't call TTD overvalued or undervalued from a range. This is an educational estimate, not advice.

What discount rate is used for TTD?

A WACC of 11.2% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.

Is The Trade Desk stock undervalued?

TickerWorth's fair-value range for The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) is $9.73 – $29.40 against a market price of $12.26. Priced within our range. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.

The Trade Desk (TTD) DCF valuation and fair value

Our fair-value range for The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) is $9.73 – $29.40, built on a 11.2% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.

What growth is priced into The Trade Desk stock?

no growth rate up to 300%/yr justifies the price under these economics This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $12.26. A model estimate, not investment advice.

The Trade Desk (TTD) insider trading

The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD): Davis Tahnil R., Chief Accounting Officer & EVP, grant / award on 2026-09-14. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.

TTD · Intrinsic value

Is The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) overvalued or undervalued?

Name: The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) DCF intrinsic value
Creator: TickerWorth

As of Oct 20, 2026, TickerWorth publishes a fair-value range of $9.73 – $29.40 for The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD), against the delayed market price of $12.26: priced within our range. It is a range, not a single number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. It is a model estimate; every input is sourced below.

Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from a hand-researched model · Updated Oct 20, 2026 · How these pages are made

Open full TTD analysis

What is TTD worth?

Backup data source

This price comes from our backup market-data feed.

Fair-value range: $9.73 – $29.40; A range by design: peer multiples and our researched mid-cycle DCF.
Market price: $12.26
Gap to fair value: —
Verdict: Priced within our range

Price as of 20 Oct 2026, 11:43 UTC · Prices are delayed.We publish this company as a range by design, not because our valuation lenses disagree, and we do not collapse it to a single number. We do not call it over- or undervalued from a range.

Fair-value range against the delayed market price: Priced within our range.

Reverse DCF: no growth rate up to 300%/yr justifies the price under these economics

What is TTD's TickerWorth Score?

B60/100

Scores higher than most companies we compare it with

Compared with Communication Services companies in US

Its strongest point: trades below our estimate of what it's worth. Its weakest: recent price trend has been weak.

Value · 62 of 100
Cheaper than 62% of Communication Services companies in US
Price vs worth · 100 of 100
Quality · 64 of 100
More profitable than 64% of Communication Services companies in US
Financial health · 82 of 100
Financially stronger than 82% of Communication Services companies in US
Growth · 30 of 100
Growing faster than 30% of Communication Services companies in US
Momentum · 2 of 100
Outperformed 2% of Communication Services companies in US over the past year

Confidence: High confidence · Scored 20 Oct 2026, 11:43 UTC

Get the Undervalued Company of the Week.

Where the numbers come from

Hand-researched model

What the modeller flagged

THE SITE'S CYCLICAL / RANGE-ONLY FLAG FIRES, DELIBERATELY. Revenue growth is negative in Years 1 and 2 (-3%, -3%), which the mechanical test reads as a modelled downturn. TTD is not a classic cyclical — this is a demand and share reset with a macro component (CPG/auto) — but publishing a range rather than a point is the right call for a business whose next two years nobody, including management, can see. The margin arm does not fire (Year-5 17.0% vs 20.35% peak = 0.84).
YEAR-1 FCF IS ~84% BELOW THE LAST REPORTED FCF (~$124M modeled vs $783M FY2025). Decomposed: (1) SBC — reported FCF adds back $490.6M of non-cash SBC; this model treats it as a cost, the largest piece by far; (2) the 2026 operating reset — GAAP EBIT falls from $589M to ~$285M including ~$45M of severance; (3) tax normalized to 25% on GAAP EBIT; (4) capex up to ~$235M. Applying this model's treatment to FY2025 itself gives only ~$236M (NOPAT $442M + D&A $116M - capex $210M - NWC $113M), so the gap is mostly method, not forecast error.
TERMINAL VALUE IS ~73% OF ENTERPRISE VALUE — just under the 75% line. Net cash supplies a further third of the equity value, so the explicit-forecast operating business carries less of the answer than it appears.
THE REVERSE DCF IS NON-MONOTONIC HERE. With a 25% working-capital charge on growth, very high growth rates consume more cash than they generate, so the engine's single-variable growth solve (searching up to 300%/yr) may report that no growth rate justifies the price. That is an artifact: solved over a sensible range with this model's steady 17% margin, today's price implies ~7.4% flat annual growth for five years.
YEAR 1 IS AN ESTIMATE, NOT GUIDANCE. TTD guides one quarter at a time; Q4 2026 (~$750M, -11 to -12%) is my assumption and is the softest single input for 2026. Each $50M of Q4 revenue is ~1.8 points of FY2026 growth.
FLATTERED D&A AND EBIT. A change in the useful life of data-center equipment from 3 to 4 years (effective 2026-04-01) lowers reported depreciation and raises reported EBIT from Q2 2026; the 4.5% D&A rate partly offsets it, and capex is held above D&A.
DILUTION RISK NOT IN THE SHARE COUNT. Up to 15.58M options would be repriced to the 2026-10-19 close if stockholders approve, and the CEO holds a new 7.0M-share option at $14.97 (tranches from $18 to $105). Any recovery above those strikes adds shares; the repricing adds incremental SBC expense. Class B shares carry 10 votes each, so outside holders have limited say on these decisions.

Why TTD gets a range, not one number

At a recent price of $12.26, The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) sits inside our range of estimates: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $9.73 and $29.40 per share. For a cyclical we value through the cycle we publish a range only (peer multiples and our researched mid-cycle DCF): where in the cycle the business sits decides where in that range it lands, and a single figure would claim we know that precisely. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.

Read the full reasoning

The valuation discounts The Trade Desk, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 11.2%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 73% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.

Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, TTD's modeled DCF value ranges from about $8.31 to $12.27 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.

How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what The Trade Desk, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of TTD's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.

Every input behind TTD's DCF

Input	Value	Source
Base-year revenueThe Trade Desk Q4/FY2025 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001671933-26-000009, filed 2026-02-25) + The Trade Desk FY2025 10-K (accession 0001671933-26-000014, filed 2026-02-27): us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, FY2025 (calendar year): $2,896,284K, +18.5% on FY2024's $2,444,831K. This is NET revenue — TTD's platform fee on clients' gross spend, which was $13.4B in 2025 (release), so the take rate is ~21.6%. UNCHANGED as the base; FY2025 is the last completed year with a filed 10-K. CROSS-CHECK, AND IT IS THE WHOLE STORY: quarterly growth went +12% (Q1 2026, $688.9M derived as H1 $1,403.9M less Q2), +3% (Q2, $715.1M), and Q3 is guided to 'at least $650 million' against $739.4M a year earlier (derived: FY2025 less H1 2025 $1,310.1M less Q4 $846.8M) — about -12%. The base year is the top of the old trajectory, not a launch pad.	$2,896,284,000	The Trade Desk Q4/FY2025 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001671933-26-000009, filed 2026-02-25) + The Trade Desk FY2025 10-K (accession 0001671933-26-000014, filed 2026-02-27): us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, FY2025 (calendar year): $2,896,284K, +18.5% on FY2024's $2,444,831K. This is NET revenue — TTD's platform fee on clients' gross spend, which was $13.4B in 2025 (release), so the take rate is ~21.6%. UNCHANGED as the base; FY2025 is the last completed year with a filed 10-K. CROSS-CHECK, AND IT IS THE WHOLE STORY: quarterly growth went +12% (Q1 2026, $688.9M derived as H1 $1,403.9M less Q2), +3% (Q2, $715.1M), and Q3 is guided to 'at least $650 million' against $739.4M a year earlier (derived: FY2025 less H1 2025 $1,310.1M less Q4 $846.8M) — about -12%. The base year is the top of the old trajectory, not a launch pad.
Base EBIT marginThe Trade Desk Q4/FY2025 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001671933-26-000009, filed 2026-02-25): GAAP income from operations $589,321K / revenue $2,896,284K = 20.35% (us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss ties). This is AFTER $490.6M of stock-based compensation (16.9% of revenue), which stays expensed per house rule — the release's 'Adjusted EBITDA' of $1,196M (41%) adds it back and is NOT used anywhere in this model. FY2025 includes $67M of CEO performance-grant SBC. CROSS-CHECK on the latest quarter: H1 2026 GAAP operating income $168.2M on $1,403.9M = 12.0% (H1 2025: 13.1%); Q2 2026 alone 14.2% vs 16.8%. Platform operations rose to 26% of revenue from 22% (hosting/data-center costs plus a reclassification of supplier-provided data costs out of contra-revenue, per the 10-Q). FY2025 was the high-water mark of the last four years (FY2022 7.2%, FY2023 10.3%, FY2024 17.5%).	20.3%	The Trade Desk Q4/FY2025 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001671933-26-000009, filed 2026-02-25): GAAP income from operations $589,321K / revenue $2,896,284K = 20.35% (us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss ties). This is AFTER $490.6M of stock-based compensation (16.9% of revenue), which stays expensed per house rule — the release's 'Adjusted EBITDA' of $1,196M (41%) adds it back and is NOT used anywhere in this model. FY2025 includes $67M of CEO performance-grant SBC. CROSS-CHECK on the latest quarter: H1 2026 GAAP operating income $168.2M on $1,403.9M = 12.0% (H1 2025: 13.1%); Q2 2026 alone 14.2% vs 16.8%. Platform operations rose to 26% of revenue from 22% (hosting/data-center costs plus a reclassification of supplier-provided data costs out of contra-revenue, per the 10-Q). FY2025 was the high-water mark of the last four years (FY2022 7.2%, FY2023 10.3%, FY2024 17.5%).
Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast	-3% → -3% → 4% → 5% → 5%	ESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast
Risk-free rateUS 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation; program-wide rate shared by every researched model.	5.2%	US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation; program-wide rate shared by every researched model.
BetaESTIMATEAssumption — normalized estimate; anchor = Yahoo/yfinance 5Y-monthly beta: Published 5Y-monthly beta 0.992 (yfinance, 2026-10-05). Normalized UP to 1.20 — CONSERVATIVE, it raises the discount rate and lowers the value. Reasons: (1) TTD's revenue is a direct claim on discretionary ad budgets, and management attributed the Q3 decline partly to CPG and auto advertisers (~25% of spend) pulling back — that is macro exposure a 0.99 understates; (2) the published figure is dominated by a ~90% idiosyncratic collapse that a market regression reads as noise; (3) published betas of the ad-tech and ad-funded set the same day: Magnite 2.32, PubMatic 1.56, AppLovin 2.56, Alphabet 1.21, Meta 1.19, DoubleVerify 1.00, Pinterest 0.90 — median ~1.2. Using the published 0.992 instead gives ~$10.69/share.	1.20	ESTIMATEAssumption — normalized estimate; anchor = Yahoo/yfinance 5Y-monthly beta: Published 5Y-monthly beta 0.992 (yfinance, 2026-10-05). Normalized UP to 1.20 — CONSERVATIVE, it raises the discount rate and lowers the value. Reasons: (1) TTD's revenue is a direct claim on discretionary ad budgets, and management attributed the Q3 decline partly to CPG and auto advertisers (~25% of spend) pulling back — that is macro exposure a 0.99 understates; (2) the published figure is dominated by a ~90% idiosyncratic collapse that a market regression reads as noise; (3) published betas of the ad-tech and ad-funded set the same day: Magnite 2.32, PubMatic 1.56, AppLovin 2.56, Alphabet 1.21, Meta 1.19, DoubleVerify 1.00, Pinterest 0.90 — median ~1.2. Using the published 0.992 instead gives ~$10.69/share.
Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (about long-run nominal GDP), well below the 11.24% WACC. Fair for a business that still sits on growing CTV and retail-media budgets, but it assumes TTD stops losing share; 2.0% takes ~$0.29/share off.	2.5%	ESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (about long-run nominal GDP), well below the 11.24% WACC. Fair for a business that still sits on growing CTV and retail-media budgets, but it assumes TTD stops losing share; 2.0% takes ~$0.29/share off.
Diluted sharesThe Trade Desk special-meeting proxy, DEF 14A (accession 0001671933-26-000102, filed 2026-09-18): 429,686,475 Class A + 43,108,629 Class B shares outstanding on the 2026-09-14 record date = 472.8M. USED IN PLACE OF the Q2 10-Q weighted-average diluted count (469.9M) because the actual outstanding count is already higher than that diluted average, and at ~$12 almost no options are in the money, so the treasury-method add-on is negligible. Conservative by ~0.6% (469.9M would give ~$9.78). Future dilution is NOT in this count: the board's option REPRICING of up to 15.58M options (strikes $3.69-$122.59, put to a 2026-10-19 vote) and the 7.0M-share CEO performance option struck at $14.97 (2026-09-14) both become dilutive in any recovery. Their cost is meant to be captured by expensing SBC in EBIT, not here.	473M	The Trade Desk special-meeting proxy, DEF 14A (accession 0001671933-26-000102, filed 2026-09-18): 429,686,475 Class A + 43,108,629 Class B shares outstanding on the 2026-09-14 record date = 472.8M. USED IN PLACE OF the Q2 10-Q weighted-average diluted count (469.9M) because the actual outstanding count is already higher than that diluted average, and at ~$12 almost no options are in the money, so the treasury-method add-on is negligible. Conservative by ~0.6% (469.9M would give ~$9.78). Future dilution is NOT in this count: the board's option REPRICING of up to 15.58M options (strikes $3.69-$122.59, put to a 2026-10-19 vote) and the 7.0M-share CEO performance option struck at $14.97 (2026-09-14) both become dilutive in any recovery. Their cost is meant to be captured by expensing SBC in EBIT, not here.
Market priceBackup price feed · as of 2026-10-20 11:43 UTC	$12.26	Backup price feed · as of 2026-10-20 11:43 UTC

Change TTD's assumptions

The discount-rate dial and the editable model

Pro

Change growth, margin and WACC yourself — Pro (7-day free trial, card required).

Start free trial Try it on Apple

What does The Trade Desk, Inc. do?

What does it do?

The Trade Desk, Inc. operates as a technology company in the United States and internationally. It operates in the Advertising Agencies industry (Communication Services sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 3,843 people.

How does it make money?

The business turns $2.9B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $14 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 14.2%), after a 77% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 13.6% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.

Is it financially healthy?

Financially it looks solid: carries modest debt (0.2× equity), comfortably covers its short-term bills (1.7× current ratio), and is currently profitable.

Who at TTD filed insider trades?

Recent insider filings for The Trade Desk, Inc.
Date	Insider	Relationship	What happened	Value	Filing
14 Sept 2026	Davis Tahnil R.	Chief Accounting Officer & EVP	Grant / award	—	Form 4 for Davis Tahnil R. (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
14 Sept 2026	GRANT JAY R	Chief Legal Officer	Grant / award	—	Form 4 for GRANT JAY R (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
14 Sept 2026	Kundra Vivek	Chief Operating Officer	Grant / award	—	Form 4 for Kundra Vivek (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
14 Sept 2026	Olmstead Nathan	Chief Financial Officer	Grant / award	—	Form 4 for Olmstead Nathan (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
15 Aug 2026	Kundra Vivek	Chief Operating Officer	Shares withheld (tax)	$32,804.80	Form 4 for Kundra Vivek (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
15 Aug 2026	Kundra Vivek	Chief Operating Officer	Shares withheld (tax)	$66,641.82	Form 4 for Kundra Vivek (opens sec.gov in a new tab)

A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans

Common questions

What is TTD's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's valuation lenses put The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) between $9.73 and $29.40 per share, versus a market price of $12.26. For a cyclical we value through the cycle we publish a range only (peer multiples and our researched mid-cycle DCF): where in the cycle the business sits decides where in that range it lands, and a single figure would claim we know that precisely.
Is TTD overvalued or undervalued?
At $12.26 the price sits inside our range of estimates. We don't call TTD overvalued or undervalued from a range. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for TTD?
A WACC of 11.2% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is The Trade Desk stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair-value range for The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) is $9.73 – $29.40 against a market price of $12.26. Priced within our range. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
The Trade Desk (TTD) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair-value range for The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) is $9.73 – $29.40, built on a 11.2% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into The Trade Desk stock?
no growth rate up to 300%/yr justifies the price under these economics This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $12.26. A model estimate, not investment advice.
The Trade Desk (TTD) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD): Davis Tahnil R., Chief Accounting Officer & EVP, grant / award on 2026-09-14. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.