TXRH · Intrinsic value
Is Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 20, 2026, TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH) at $50.19 – $180.91, too broad a range to say where the delayed market price of $169.91 sits in it, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from SEC filings and market data · Updated Oct 20, 2026 · How these pages are made
What is TXRH worth?
- Fair-value range
- $50.19 – $180.91
- Market price
- $169.91
- Gap to fair value
- —
- Verdict
- Too wide to call
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 23.4% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 8.1% a year on average over the same horizon.
What is TXRH's TickerWorth Score?
Scores lower than almost every company we compare it with
Compared with Consumer Cyclical companies in US
Its strongest point: growing quickly. Its weakest: trades above our estimate of what it's worth.
- Value · 33 of 100
Cheaper than 33% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
- Price vs worth · 17 of 100
- Quality · 41 of 100
More profitable than 41% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
- Financial health · 46 of 100
Financially stronger than 46% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
- Growth · 52 of 100
Growing faster than 52% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
- Momentum · 52 of 100
Outperformed 52% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US over the past year
Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored
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Why TXRH gets a range, not one number
At a recent price of $169.91, Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH) sits inside a range too wide to call either way: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $50.19 and $180.91 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
Read the full reasoning
The valuation discounts Texas Roadhouse, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 8.6%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 76% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 23.4% annual revenue growth for TXRH. Our base case instead compounds to about 8.1% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in materially faster growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, TXRH's modeled DCF value ranges from about $64.69 to $144.38 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Texas Roadhouse, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of TXRH's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind TXRH's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueTexas Roadhouse, Inc. FY2025 10-K (accession 0001104659-26-021292): us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, FY2025 full year. | $5,878,070,000 |
| Base EBIT marginTexas Roadhouse, Inc. FY2025 10-K (accession 0001104659-26-021292): us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss 474,740,000 / revenue 5,878,075,000 = 8.08%, FY2025. | 8.1% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 12% → 10% → 8% → 6% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.2% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 0.79 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesTexas Roadhouse, Inc. FY2025 10-K (accession 0001104659-26-021292): WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding = 66,511,000 shares, FY2025. | 67M |
| Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-20 19:27 UTC | $169.91 |
Change TXRH's assumptions
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What does Texas Roadhouse, Inc. do?
What does it do?
Texas Roadhouse, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates casual dining restaurants in the United States and internationally. It operates through Texas Roadhouse, Bubba's 33, and Others segments. It operates in the Restaurants industry (Consumer Cyclical sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 101,000 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $5.9B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $9 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 8.5%), after a 16% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 6.6% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks stretched: carries modest debt (0.7× equity), may struggle to cover its short-term bills (0.5× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
Who at TXRH filed insider trades?
| Date | Insider | Relationship | What happened | Value | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshall Lloyd Paul | CHIEF GROWTH OFFICER | Open-market sale | $102,325.00 | Form 4 for Marshall Lloyd Paul (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Carroll Hugh J | Director | Open-market sale | $132,593.50 | Form 4 for Carroll Hugh J (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Morgan Gerald L. | Director, CEO, EXECUTIVE VICE CHAIRMAN | Open-market sale | $3,032,550.00 | Form 4 for Morgan Gerald L. (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| EPPS DONNA E | Director | Gift | — | Form 4 for EPPS DONNA E (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Humpich Keith | CHIEF ACCT & FIN SVCS OFFCR | Open-market sale | $167,166.09 | Form 4 for Humpich Keith (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| EPPS DONNA E | Director | Open-market sale | $169,379.20 | Form 4 for EPPS DONNA E (opens sec.gov in a new tab) |
A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans
Common questions
What is TXRH's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH) between $50.19 and $180.91 per share, versus a market price of $169.91. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value, so we publish the range.
Is TXRH overvalued or undervalued?
At $169.91 the price sits inside a range too wide to call either way. We don't call TXRH overvalued or undervalued from a range this wide. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for TXRH?
A WACC of 8.6% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Texas Roadhouse stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair-value range for Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH) is $50.19 – $180.91 against a market price of $169.91. Too wide to call. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair-value range for Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH) is $50.19 – $180.91, built on a 8.6% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Texas Roadhouse stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 23.4% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 8.1% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $169.91. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH): Marshall Lloyd Paul, CHIEF GROWTH OFFICER, open-market sale on 2026-08-26. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.
Other ways into the coverage
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.