ULTA · Intrinsic value
Is Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) overvalued or undervalued?
Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) trades at the delayed market price of $593.89 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of 9.6% a year for 5 years. TickerWorth's fair value is $536.85 a share (priced within our range of $300.58 – $746.33). We do not call it over- or undervalued from inside our range.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from SEC filings and market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
Is ULTA fairly valued?
- Fair value
- $536.85
- Market price
- $593.89
- Downside to fair value
- 9.6%
- Verdict
- Priced within our range of $300.58 – $746.33
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 9.6% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 6.5% a year on average over the same horizon.
What is ULTA's TickerWorth Score?
Middle of the pack — real strengths and real weaknesses
Compared with Consumer Cyclical companies in US
Its strongest point: a profitable, high-quality business. Its weakest: looks expensive on the numbers.
- Value · 39 of 100
Cheaper than 39% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
- Price vs worth · 42 of 100
- Quality · 63 of 100
More profitable than 63% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
- Financial health · 48 of 100
Financially stronger than 48% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
- Growth · 50 of 100
Growing faster than 50% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
- Momentum · 66 of 100
Outperformed 66% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US over the past year
Confidence: High confidence · Scored
Get the Undervalued Company of the Week.
ULTA DCF valuation, input by input
TickerWorth's fair value for Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) is $536.85 a share, against the delayed market price of $593.89 (priced within our range of $300.58 – $746.33). We do not call it over- or undervalued from inside our range. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
Read the full reasoning
One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values ULTA at about $478.92 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.
The valuation discounts Ulta Beauty, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 8.9%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 75% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 9.6% annual revenue growth for ULTA. Our base case instead compounds to about 6.5% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in materially faster growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, ULTA's modeled DCF value ranges from about $356.20 to $755.62 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Ulta Beauty, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of ULTA's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind ULTA's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueULTA BEAUTY, INC. FY2025 10-K (accession 0001104659-26-035243): us-gaap:Revenues, FY2025 full year. | $12,392,820,000 |
| Base EBIT marginULTA BEAUTY, INC. FY2025 10-K (accession 0001104659-26-035243): us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss 1,532,992,000 / revenue 12,392,820,000 = 12.37%, FY2025. | 12.4% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 9% → 8% → 7% → 5% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.3% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 0.85 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesULTA BEAUTY, INC. FY2025 10-K (accession 0001104659-26-035243): WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding = 44,991,000 shares, FY2025. | 45M |
| Market priceLast known price · as of 2026-10-19 21:42 UTC | $593.89 |
Change ULTA's assumptions
The discount-rate dial and the editable model
ProChange growth, margin and WACC yourself — Pro (7-day free trial, card required).
What does Ulta Beauty, Inc. do?
What does it do?
Ulta Beauty, Inc. operates as a specialty beauty retailer in the United States, Mexico, and Kuwait. It operates in the Specialty Retail industry (Consumer Cyclical sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 21,382 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $12.4B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $13 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 12.5%), after a 43% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 9.3% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks mixed: carries modest debt (1.0× equity), can just cover its short-term bills (1.3× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
Who at ULTA filed insider trades?
| Date | Insider | Relationship | What happened | Value | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steelman Kecia | President and CEO | Open-market sale | $1,091,765.60 | Form 4 for Steelman Kecia (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Nagler Lorna | Director | Open-market sale | $322,387.56 | Form 4 for Nagler Lorna (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| GARCIA KELLY E | Chief Technology Officer | Grant / award | — | Form 4 for GARCIA KELLY E (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Olson Brieane Lee | Director | Grant / award | — | Form 4 for Olson Brieane Lee (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| MRKONIC GEORGE R JR | Director | Open-market sale | $182,246.72 | Form 4 for MRKONIC GEORGE R JR (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Smith Mike C. | Director | Grant / award | — | Form 4 for Smith Mike C. (opens sec.gov in a new tab) |
A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans
Common questions
What is ULTA's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's blended fair value for Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) is $536.85 per share, versus a market price of $593.89 (priced within our range of $300.58 – $746.33).
Is ULTA overvalued or undervalued?
Priced within our range of $300.58 – $746.33 at $593.89. We don't call ULTA overvalued or undervalued from a range. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for ULTA?
A WACC of 8.9% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Ulta Beauty stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair value for Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) is $536.85 against a market price of $593.89. Our read: Priced within our range of $300.58 – $746.33. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Ulta Beauty (ULTA) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair value for Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) is $536.85, built on a 8.9% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Ulta Beauty stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 9.6% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 6.5% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $593.89. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Ulta Beauty (ULTA) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA): Steelman Kecia, President and CEO, open-market sale on 2026-09-17. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.