Is UNH overvalued or undervalued?

At $407.40 the price sits inside our range of estimates. We don't call UNH overvalued or undervalued from a range. This is an educational estimate, not advice.

What discount rate is used for UNH?

A WACC of 8.0% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.

Is UnitedHealth Group stock undervalued?

TickerWorth's fair-value range for UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) is $401.25 – $544.32 against a market price of $407.40. Priced within our range. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) DCF valuation and fair value

Our fair-value range for UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) is $401.25 – $544.32, built on a 8.0% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.

What growth is priced into UnitedHealth Group stock?

Today's price implies revenue growth of 0.7% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 3.4% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $407.40. A model estimate, not investment advice.

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) insider trading

The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH): Noseworthy John H, Director, grant / award on 2026-10-01. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.

UNH · Intrinsic value

Is UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) overvalued or undervalued?

Name: UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) DCF intrinsic value
Creator: TickerWorth

As of Oct 19, 2026, TickerWorth publishes a fair-value range of $401.25 – $544.32 for UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH), against the delayed market price of $407.40: priced within our range. It is a range, not a single number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.

Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from a hand-researched model · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made

Open full UNH analysis

What is UNH worth?

Backup data source

This price comes from our backup market-data feed.

Fair-value range: $401.25 – $544.32; A range by design: peer multiples and our researched mid-cycle DCF.
Market price: $407.40
Gap to fair value: —
Verdict: Priced within our range

Price as of 19 Oct 2026, 13:54 UTC · Prices are delayed.We publish this company as a range by design, not because our valuation lenses disagree, and we do not collapse it to a single number. We do not call it over- or undervalued from a range.

Fair-value range against the delayed market price: Priced within our range.

Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 0.7% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 3.4% a year on average over the same horizon.

What is UNH's TickerWorth Score?

C55/100

Middle of the pack — real strengths and real weaknesses

Compared with Healthcare companies in US

Its strongest point: looks cheap on the numbers. Its weakest: balance sheet looks stretched.

Value · 71 of 100
Cheaper than 71% of Healthcare companies in US
Price vs worth · 66 of 100
Quality · 39 of 100
More profitable than 39% of Healthcare companies in US
Financial health · 34 of 100
Financially stronger than 34% of Healthcare companies in US
Growth · 48 of 100
Growing faster than 48% of Healthcare companies in US
Momentum · 71 of 100
Outperformed 71% of Healthcare companies in US over the past year

Confidence: High confidence · Scored 19 Oct 2026, 13:54 UTC

Get the Undervalued Company of the Week.

Where the numbers come from

Hand-researched model

What the modeller flagged

TERMINAL VALUE IS ~79% OF ENTERPRISE VALUE — above the 75% line. The five explicit years carry only ~21% of the answer, so this is mostly a bet on what a normal UnitedHealth earns in 2030 and after. The honest output is the range, not the cent.
THE MARGIN PATH IS THE MODEL. Every 0.5 point on the 2027-2030 operating margin is worth ~$35/share. Full recovery to the 2019-2024 average (8.4%) by 2030 gives ~$480; a stall at 2027's 6.2% gives ~$336. Those two outcomes bracket today's price.
YEAR-1 FCF IS ~23% ABOVE THE FY2025 REPORTED FCF ($19.8B modeled vs $16,075M) — past the 20% line, so stated. It is the margin recovery (2025 operating margin 4.24% → 5.77% guided), not a timing effect. Against the TTM figure ($23,617M, inflated by an early government payment) the model is ~16% LOWER, because it normalizes tax to 21% and holds back ~5% of incremental revenue as statutory capital.
NONCONTROLLING INTERESTS AT BOOK. The $7,502M carrying value is used. NCI earned $387M in H1 2026 (~$774M annualized); capitalized at an earnings multiple like UnitedHealth's own, those stakes could be worth ~$12-13B, which would cut ~$6/share. Redeemable NCI is already carried near redemption value; the equity-classified $6,066M is not.
LEGAL AND POLICY OVERHANG NOT MODELED. The 10-Q discloses the long-running DOJ False Claims Act case over Medicare Advantage risk adjustment (a Special Master recommended summary judgment for the company in March 2025; the DOJ objected) and broader DOJ, CMS and other investigations; UnitedHealth 'cannot reasonably estimate the outcome'. No reserve or penalty is in the bridge. Separately, CMS rate notices, PBM reform and Medicaid funding can move the margin path more than any input here.
CREDIT OUTLOOK NEGATIVE AT ALL THREE AGENCIES (A2 / A+ / A at 2026-06-30). A one-notch downgrade would push the marginal 6.2% cost of debt up a little; small at an 18% debt weight (~$6/share for +0.5pt), but it is a signal of how the agencies read the recovery.
YEAR 1 REVENUE IS AN ESTIMATE, NOT GUIDANCE. Management's only revenue outlook ('> $439.0 billion', January 2026) is a floor that the first half has already outrun; it was not restated in April or July. The model uses H1 actuals plus an H2 run-rate. The operating-earnings Year-1 margin IS guidance.

Why UNH gets a range, not one number

At a recent price of $407.40, UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) sits inside our range of estimates: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $401.25 and $544.32 per share. For a cyclical we value through the cycle we publish a range only (peer multiples and our researched mid-cycle DCF): where in the cycle the business sits decides where in that range it lands, and a single figure would claim we know that precisely. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.

Read the full reasoning

The valuation discounts UnitedHealth Group Incorporated's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 8.0%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 79% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.

Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 0.7% annual revenue growth for UNH. Our base case instead compounds to about 3.4% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in slower growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.

Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, UNH's modeled DCF value ranges from about $255.06 to $785.69 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.

How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what UnitedHealth Group Incorporated would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of UNH's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.

Every input behind UNH's DCF

Input	Value	Source
Base-year revenueUnitedHealth Group FY2025 10-K (accession 0000731766-26-000062, filed 2026-03-02): us-gaap:Revenues FY2025 = $447,567M, +11.8% on FY2024's $400,278M (premiums $352,229M, the rest products, services and $3,920M of investment and other income). Most of the growth was Medicare Advantage membership (+755,000) and Inflation Reduction Act Part D effects that raised premium revenue, not profit. UNCHANGED as the base; 2026 belongs in the forecast. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 revenue was $223,753M, +1.2% on H1 2025's $221,191M (Q2 2026 Ex-99.1, accession 0000731766-26-000191), even as UnitedHealthcare served 1.6 million fewer people year over year — repricing is holding revenue up while membership falls.	$447,567,000,000	UnitedHealth Group FY2025 10-K (accession 0000731766-26-000062, filed 2026-03-02): us-gaap:Revenues FY2025 = $447,567M, +11.8% on FY2024's $400,278M (premiums $352,229M, the rest products, services and $3,920M of investment and other income). Most of the growth was Medicare Advantage membership (+755,000) and Inflation Reduction Act Part D effects that raised premium revenue, not profit. UNCHANGED as the base; 2026 belongs in the forecast. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 revenue was $223,753M, +1.2% on H1 2025's $221,191M (Q2 2026 Ex-99.1, accession 0000731766-26-000191), even as UnitedHealthcare served 1.6 million fewer people year over year — repricing is holding revenue up while membership falls.
Base EBIT marginUnitedHealth Group FY2025 10-K (accession 0000731766-26-000062, filed 2026-03-02): GAAP earnings from operations $18,964M (us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss) / $447,567M = 4.24%, the lowest in at least a decade (2019-2024 ran 8.07%-8.77%). It carries a Q4 2025 pre-tax charge of $2,878M (cyberattack costs $799M, restructuring and other $2,521M, less a $442M net divestiture gain — Q4 2025 Ex-99.1, accession 0000731766-26-000025); adjusted earnings from operations were $21.7B, a 4.85% margin. The REPORTED figure is used because the forecast is also on a reported basis. The cause is medical cost: the medical care ratio rose to 89.1% from 85.5% in 2024 and 82.0% in 2022. NOTE ON WHAT THIS LINE CONTAINS: UnitedHealth books investment and other income ($3,920M in FY2025, 0.9% of revenue) inside revenue and therefore inside this margin. That income is earned mostly on float held by regulated insurance subsidiaries — the same cash this model refuses to count in net debt — so keeping it in EBIT and out of the bridge is the consistent treatment, not double counting. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 earnings from operations $16,981M / $223,753M = 7.59% (H1 2025: 6.45%) — but the first half is seasonally the strong half (Q2 2026 alone 7.13%), see the Year-1 note.	4.2%	UnitedHealth Group FY2025 10-K (accession 0000731766-26-000062, filed 2026-03-02): GAAP earnings from operations $18,964M (us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss) / $447,567M = 4.24%, the lowest in at least a decade (2019-2024 ran 8.07%-8.77%). It carries a Q4 2025 pre-tax charge of $2,878M (cyberattack costs $799M, restructuring and other $2,521M, less a $442M net divestiture gain — Q4 2025 Ex-99.1, accession 0000731766-26-000025); adjusted earnings from operations were $21.7B, a 4.85% margin. The REPORTED figure is used because the forecast is also on a reported basis. The cause is medical cost: the medical care ratio rose to 89.1% from 85.5% in 2024 and 82.0% in 2022. NOTE ON WHAT THIS LINE CONTAINS: UnitedHealth books investment and other income ($3,920M in FY2025, 0.9% of revenue) inside revenue and therefore inside this margin. That income is earned mostly on float held by regulated insurance subsidiaries — the same cash this model refuses to count in net debt — so keeping it in EBIT and out of the bridge is the consistent treatment, not double counting. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 earnings from operations $16,981M / $223,753M = 7.59% (H1 2025: 6.45%) — but the first half is seasonally the strong half (Q2 2026 alone 7.13%), see the Year-1 note.
Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast	-0% → 3% → 5% → 5% → 4%	ESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast
Risk-free rateUS 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. House input shared by every model in this tracker.	5.2%	US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. House input shared by every model in this tracker.
BetaESTIMATEAssumption — normalized estimate (yfinance published 5Y-monthly beta 0.622; managed-care peer betas): Published 5Y-monthly beta is 0.622. Normalized UP to 0.70, the managed-care peer median (yfinance 2026-10-03: ELV 0.696, HUM 0.745, MOH 0.755, CVS 0.58, CI 0.317, CNC 1.106; median ~0.72). Reason: UnitedHealth's own five-year window is dominated by a stock-specific collapse (52-week low $255.97 vs a high of $461.62) driven by a medical-cost shock, a suspended outlook and DOJ investigations into Medicare billing — idiosyncratic moves that a regression reads as noise, not co-movement with the market, which pushes measured beta DOWN. The peer median is a cleaner read of the business's systematic risk. CONSERVATIVE: raises the discount rate and lowers the value; the published 0.622 adds ~$31/share.	0.70	ESTIMATEAssumption — normalized estimate (yfinance published 5Y-monthly beta 0.622; managed-care peer betas): Published 5Y-monthly beta is 0.622. Normalized UP to 0.70, the managed-care peer median (yfinance 2026-10-03: ELV 0.696, HUM 0.745, MOH 0.755, CVS 0.58, CI 0.317, CNC 1.106; median ~0.72). Reason: UnitedHealth's own five-year window is dominated by a stock-specific collapse (52-week low $255.97 vs a high of $461.62) driven by a medical-cost shock, a suspended outlook and DOJ investigations into Medicare billing — idiosyncratic moves that a regression reads as noise, not co-movement with the market, which pushes measured beta DOWN. The peer median is a cleaner read of the business's systematic risk. CONSERVATIVE: raises the discount rate and lowers the value; the published 0.622 adds ~$31/share.
Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability. ARGUABLY CONSERVATIVE FOR THIS BUSINESS: US health spending has outgrown GDP for most of the last half-century and UnitedHealth's revenue is a share of it, so a 3.0% terminal rate is defensible and adds ~$41/share. Held at the house rate because the pricing pressure from Medicare, Medicaid and employers that caps margins also caps how much faster than the economy an insurer can grow. Must remain < WACC of ~8.05%.	2.5%	ESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability. ARGUABLY CONSERVATIVE FOR THIS BUSINESS: US health spending has outgrown GDP for most of the last half-century and UnitedHealth's revenue is a share of it, so a 3.0% terminal rate is defensible and adds ~$41/share. Held at the house rate because the pricing pressure from Medicare, Medicaid and employers that caps margins also caps how much faster than the economy an insurer can grow. Must remain < WACC of ~8.05%.
Diluted sharesUnitedHealth Group Q2 2026 10-Q (accession 0000731766-26-000197, filed 2026-08-10): Q2 2026 diluted weighted-average shares 906M (basic 902M; H1 908M; FY2025 911M). The count is FALLING: ~10.5M shares were bought back in H1 2026, including 6.4M bought by a counterparty under a $2.0B forward contract settled 2026-07-01, and only 897.6M were outstanding at 2026-07-31. Using the weighted 906M rather than ~901M (outstanding plus ~4M of dilution) is mildly conservative, about -$2/share.	906M	UnitedHealth Group Q2 2026 10-Q (accession 0000731766-26-000197, filed 2026-08-10): Q2 2026 diluted weighted-average shares 906M (basic 902M; H1 908M; FY2025 911M). The count is FALLING: ~10.5M shares were bought back in H1 2026, including 6.4M bought by a counterparty under a $2.0B forward contract settled 2026-07-01, and only 897.6M were outstanding at 2026-07-31. Using the weighted 906M rather than ~901M (outstanding plus ~4M of dilution) is mildly conservative, about -$2/share.
Market priceBackup price feed · as of 2026-10-19 13:54 UTC	$407.40	Backup price feed · as of 2026-10-19 13:54 UTC

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What does UnitedHealth Group Incorporated do?

What does it do?

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated operates as a health care company in the United States and internationally. It operates through four segments: Optum Health, Optum Insight, Optum Rx; and UnitedHealthcare. It operates in the Healthcare Plans industry (Healthcare sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 390,000 people.

How does it make money?

The business turns $450.1B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $6 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 5.8%), after a 20% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 3.5% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.

Is it financially healthy?

Financially it looks stretched: carries modest debt (0.7× equity), may struggle to cover its short-term bills (0.7× current ratio), and is currently profitable.

Who at UNH filed insider trades?

Recent insider filings for UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
Date	Insider	Relationship	What happened	Value	Filing
1 Oct 2026	Noseworthy John H	Director	Grant / award	—	Form 4 for Noseworthy John H (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
1 Oct 2026	MONTGOMERY RICE VALERIE MD	Director	Grant / award	—	Form 4 for MONTGOMERY RICE VALERIE MD (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
1 Oct 2026	MCNABB FREDERICK WILLIAM III	Director	Grant / award	—	Form 4 for MCNABB FREDERICK WILLIAM III (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
1 Oct 2026	Gottlieb Scott	Director	Grant / award	—	Form 4 for Gottlieb Scott (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
1 Oct 2026	Gil Kristen	Director	Grant / award	—	Form 4 for Gil Kristen (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
1 Oct 2026	GARCIA PAUL R	Director	Grant / award	—	Form 4 for GARCIA PAUL R (opens sec.gov in a new tab)

A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans

Common questions

What is UNH's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's valuation lenses put UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) between $401.25 and $544.32 per share, versus a market price of $407.40. For a cyclical we value through the cycle we publish a range only (peer multiples and our researched mid-cycle DCF): where in the cycle the business sits decides where in that range it lands, and a single figure would claim we know that precisely.
Is UNH overvalued or undervalued?
At $407.40 the price sits inside our range of estimates. We don't call UNH overvalued or undervalued from a range. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for UNH?
A WACC of 8.0% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is UnitedHealth Group stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair-value range for UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) is $401.25 – $544.32 against a market price of $407.40. Priced within our range. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair-value range for UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) is $401.25 – $544.32, built on a 8.0% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into UnitedHealth Group stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 0.7% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 3.4% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $407.40. A model estimate, not investment advice.
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH): Noseworthy John H, Director, grant / award on 2026-10-01. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.