UNP · Intrinsic value
Is Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 21, 2026, TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) at $87.24 – $392.37, too broad a range to say where the delayed market price of $287.61 sits in it, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from SEC filings and market data · Updated Oct 21, 2026 · How these pages are made
What is UNP worth?
- Fair-value range
- $87.24 – $392.37
- Market price
- $287.61
- Gap to fair value
- —
- Verdict
- Too wide to call
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 18.9% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 5.1% a year on average over the same horizon.
What is UNP's TickerWorth Score?
Middle of the pack — real strengths and real weaknesses
Compared with Industrials companies in US
Its strongest point: a profitable, high-quality business. Its weakest: trades above our estimate of what it's worth.
- Value · 41 of 100
Cheaper than 41% of Industrials companies in US
- Price vs worth · 22 of 100
- Quality · 95 of 100
More profitable than 95% of Industrials companies in US
- Financial health · 24 of 100
Financially stronger than 24% of Industrials companies in US
- Growth · 33 of 100
Growing faster than 33% of Industrials companies in US
- Momentum · 72 of 100
Outperformed 72% of Industrials companies in US over the past year
Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored
Get the Undervalued Company of the Week.
Why UNP gets a range, not one number
At a recent price of $287.61, Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) sits inside a range too wide to call either way: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $87.24 and $392.37 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
Read the full reasoning
The valuation discounts Union Pacific Corporation's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 9.2%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 74% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 18.9% annual revenue growth for UNP. Our base case instead compounds to about 5.1% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in materially faster growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, UNP's modeled DCF value ranges from about $90.08 to $241.31 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Union Pacific Corporation would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of UNP's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind UNP's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueUNION PACIFIC CORP FY2025 10-K (accession 0000100885-26-000037): us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, FY2025 full year. | $24,510,000,000 |
| Base EBIT marginUNION PACIFIC CORP FY2025 10-K (accession 0000100885-26-000037): us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss 9,846,000,000 / revenue 24,510,000,000 = 40.17%, FY2025. | 40.2% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 6% → 6% → 5% → 5% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.3% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 0.97 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesUNION PACIFIC CORP FY2025 10-K (accession 0000100885-26-000037): WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding = 595,900,000 shares, FY2025. | 596M |
| Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-21 00:02 UTC | $287.61 |
Change UNP's assumptions
The discount-rate dial and the editable model
ProChange growth, margin and WACC yourself — Pro (7-day free trial, card required).
What does Union Pacific Corporation do?
What does it do?
Union Pacific Corporation, through its subsidiary, Union Pacific Railroad Company, operates in the railroad business in the United States. It offers transportation services for grain and grain products, fertilizers, food and refrigerated products, and coal and renewables to grain processors, animal feeders, and ethanol and renewable biofuel producers; and construction products, industrial chemicals, plastics, forest products, specialized products, metals and ores, petroleum, liquid petroleum gases, soda ash, and sand, as well as finished automobiles, automotive parts, and merchandise in intermodal containers. It operates in the Railroads industry (Industrials sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 28,716 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $24.5B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $41 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 41.0%), after a 56% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 28.8% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks stretched: carries moderate debt (1.5× equity), may struggle to cover its short-term bills (1.0× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
Who at UNP filed insider trades?
| Date | Insider | Relationship | What happened | Value | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conlin Christina B | EVP CHIEF LEGAL OFFICER & CORP | Grant / award | $634.89 | Form 4 for Conlin Christina B (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Rocker Kenyatta G | EVP MARKETING & SALES | Grant / award | $744.00 | Form 4 for Rocker Kenyatta G (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Powers Carrie J | VP & CONTROLLER | Grant / award | $1,579.86 | Form 4 for Powers Carrie J (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Powers Carrie J | VP & CONTROLLER | Grant / award | $1,580.08 | Form 4 for Powers Carrie J (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Conlin Christina B | EVP CHIEF LEGAL OFFICER & CORP | Grant / award | $635.00 | Form 4 for Conlin Christina B (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Rocker Kenyatta G | EVP MARKETING & SALES | Grant / award | $743.89 | Form 4 for Rocker Kenyatta G (opens sec.gov in a new tab) |
A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans
Common questions
What is UNP's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) between $87.24 and $392.37 per share, versus a market price of $287.61. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value, so we publish the range.
Is UNP overvalued or undervalued?
At $287.61 the price sits inside a range too wide to call either way. We don't call UNP overvalued or undervalued from a range this wide. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for UNP?
A WACC of 9.2% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Union Pacific stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair-value range for Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) is $87.24 – $392.37 against a market price of $287.61. Too wide to call. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Union Pacific (UNP) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair-value range for Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) is $87.24 – $392.37, built on a 9.2% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Union Pacific stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 18.9% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 5.1% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $287.61. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Union Pacific (UNP) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Union Pacific Corporation (UNP): Conlin Christina B, EVP CHIEF LEGAL OFFICER & CORP, grant / award on 2026-10-10. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.
Other ways into the coverage
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.
Save this valuation
UNP goes on your watchlist, where its valuation is re-run as new filings land — so you read the current number, not the one from today.