VLO · Intrinsic value
Is Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) overvalued or undervalued?
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) trades at the delayed market price of $440.67 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of 23.3% a year for 5 years. TickerWorth's fair value is $457.54 a share (priced within our range of $289.83 – $700.08). We do not call it over- or undervalued from inside our range.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from SEC filings and market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
Is VLO fairly valued?
- Fair value
- $457.54
- Market price
- $440.67
- Upside to fair value
- +3.8%
- Verdict
- Priced within our range of $289.83 – $700.08
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 23.3% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 14.8% a year on average over the same horizon.
What is VLO's TickerWorth Score?
A stronger business than most — but not cheap
Compared with Energy companies in US
Its strongest point: growing quickly. Its weakest: profitability is weak.
- Value · 45 of 100
Cheaper than 45% of Energy companies in US
- Price vs worth · 53 of 100
- Quality · 35 of 100
More profitable than 35% of Energy companies in US
- Financial health · 81 of 100
Financially stronger than 81% of Energy companies in US
- Growth · 82 of 100
Growing faster than 82% of Energy companies in US
- Momentum · 89 of 100
Outperformed 89% of Energy companies in US over the past year
Confidence: High confidence · Scored
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VLO DCF valuation, input by input
TickerWorth's fair value for Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) is $457.54 a share, against the delayed market price of $440.67 (priced within our range of $289.83 – $700.08). We do not call it over- or undervalued from inside our range. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
Read the full reasoning
One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values VLO at about $289.83 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.
The valuation discounts Valero Energy Corporation's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 7.8%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 81% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 23.3% annual revenue growth for VLO. Our base case instead compounds to about 14.8% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in materially faster growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, VLO's modeled DCF value ranges from about $196.30 to $552.12 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Valero Energy Corporation would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of VLO's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind VLO's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueVALERO ENERGY CORP/TX FY2025 10-K (accession 0001628280-26-011499): us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax, FY2025 full year. | $122,687,000,000 |
| Base EBIT marginVALERO ENERGY CORP/TX FY2025 10-K (accession 0001628280-26-011499): us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss 3,181,000,000 / revenue 122,687,000,000 = 2.59%, FY2025. | 2.6% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 26% → 21% → 15% → 10% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.3% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 0.57 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesVALERO ENERGY CORP/TX FY2025 10-K (accession 0001628280-26-011499): WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding = 309,000,000 shares, FY2025. | 309M |
| Market priceLast known price · as of 2026-10-19 19:33 UTC | $440.67 |
Change VLO's assumptions
The discount-rate dial and the editable model
ProChange growth, margin and WACC yourself — Pro (7-day free trial, card required).
What does Valero Energy Corporation do?
What does it do?
Valero Energy Corporation manufactures, markets, and sells petroleum-based and low-carbon liquid transportation fuels and petrochemical products in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Latin America, Mexico, Peru, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Refining, Renewable Diesel, and Ethanol. It operates in the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing industry (Energy sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 9,785 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $122.7B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $12 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 12.3%), after a 16% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 5.4% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks solid: carries modest debt (0.4× equity), comfortably covers its short-term bills (1.6× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
Who at VLO filed insider trades?
| Date | Insider | Relationship | What happened | Value | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reymond Robert L | Director | Option exercise | — | Form 4 for Reymond Robert L (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Simmons Gary K. | EVP & COO | Gift | — | Form 4 for Simmons Gary K. (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Walsh Richard Joe | EVP & GC | Gift | — | Form 4 for Walsh Richard Joe (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Fisher Eric A | SVP | Open-market sale | $2,011,307.25 | Form 4 for Fisher Eric A (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Fisher Eric A | SVP | Open-market sale | $1,776,780.75 | Form 4 for Fisher Eric A (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Fisher Eric A | SVP | Open-market sale | $1,887,064.50 | Form 4 for Fisher Eric A (opens sec.gov in a new tab) |
A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans
Common questions
What is VLO's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's blended fair value for Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) is $457.54 per share, versus a market price of $440.67 (priced within our range of $289.83 – $700.08).
Is VLO overvalued or undervalued?
Priced within our range of $289.83 – $700.08 at $440.67. We don't call VLO overvalued or undervalued from a range. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for VLO?
A WACC of 7.8% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Valero Energy stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair value for Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) is $457.54 against a market price of $440.67. Our read: Priced within our range of $289.83 – $700.08. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Valero Energy (VLO) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair value for Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) is $457.54, built on a 7.8% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Valero Energy stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 23.3% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 14.8% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $440.67. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Valero Energy (VLO) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Valero Energy Corporation (VLO): Reymond Robert L, Director, option exercise on 2026-09-18. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.