WMS · Intrinsic value
Is Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. (WMS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 19, 2026, TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. (WMS) at $48.59 – $192.05, too broad a range to say where the delayed market price of $128.20 sits in it, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from SEC filings and market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
What is WMS worth?
- Fair-value range
- $48.59 – $192.05
- Market price
- $128.20
- Gap to fair value
- —
- Verdict
- Too wide to call
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 19.7% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 10.1% a year on average over the same horizon.
What is WMS's TickerWorth Score?
Middle of the pack — real strengths and real weaknesses
Compared with Industrials companies in US
Its strongest point: a profitable, high-quality business. Its weakest: recent price trend has been weak.
- Value · 60 of 100
Cheaper than 60% of Industrials companies in US
- Price vs worth · 43 of 100
- Quality · 76 of 100
More profitable than 76% of Industrials companies in US
- Financial health · 49 of 100
Financially stronger than 49% of Industrials companies in US
- Growth · 53 of 100
Growing faster than 53% of Industrials companies in US
- Momentum · 18 of 100
Outperformed 18% of Industrials companies in US over the past year
Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored
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Why WMS gets a range, not one number
At a recent price of $128.20, Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. (WMS) sits inside a range too wide to call either way: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $48.59 and $192.05 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
Read the full reasoning
The valuation discounts Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 10.0%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 72% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 19.7% annual revenue growth for WMS. Our base case instead compounds to about 10.1% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in materially faster growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, WMS's modeled DCF value ranges from about $64.23 to $137.83 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of WMS's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind WMS's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueADVANCED DRAINAGE SYSTEMS, INC. FY2026 10-K (accession 0001604028-26-000019): us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, FY2026 full year. | $3,050,380,000 |
| Base EBIT marginADVANCED DRAINAGE SYSTEMS, INC. FY2026 10-K (accession 0001604028-26-000019): us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss 619,202,000 / revenue 3,050,376,000 = 20.30%, FY2026. | 20.3% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 16% → 13% → 10% → 7% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 4.8% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 1.29 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesADVANCED DRAINAGE SYSTEMS, INC. FY2026 10-K (accession 0001604028-26-000019): WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding = 78,383,000 shares, FY2026. | 78M |
| Market priceBackup price feed · as of 2026-10-19 12:52 UTC | $128.20 |
Change WMS's assumptions
The discount-rate dial and the editable model
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What does Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. do?
What does it do?
Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets thermoplastic corrugated pipes and related water management products in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It operates in the Building Products & Equipment industry (Industrials sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 6,425 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $3.2B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $26 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 26.3%), after a 39% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 14.0% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks mixed: carries modest debt (1.0× equity), comfortably covers its short-term bills (2.1× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
Who at WMS filed insider trades?
| Date | Insider | Relationship | What happened | Value | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coyle Patrick M. Jr | See Remarks | Shares withheld (tax) | $3,399.50 | Form 4 for Coyle Patrick M. Jr (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| EVERSOLE ROBERT M | Director | Gift | — | Form 4 for EVERSOLE ROBERT M (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| EVERSOLE ROBERT M | Director | Gift | — | Form 4 for EVERSOLE ROBERT M (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| BARBOUR D. SCOTT | Director, See Remarks | Gift | — | Form 4 for BARBOUR D. SCOTT (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| FRATTO TANYA D | Director | Grant / award | — | Form 4 for FRATTO TANYA D (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| GAST KELLY S. | Director | Grant / award | — | Form 4 for GAST KELLY S. (opens sec.gov in a new tab) |
A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans
Common questions
What is WMS's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. (WMS) between $48.59 and $192.05 per share, versus a market price of $128.20. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value, so we publish the range.
Is WMS overvalued or undervalued?
At $128.20 the price sits inside a range too wide to call either way. We don't call WMS overvalued or undervalued from a range this wide. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for WMS?
A WACC of 10.0% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Advanced Drainage Systems stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair-value range for Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. (WMS) is $48.59 – $192.05 against a market price of $128.20. Too wide to call. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Advanced Drainage Systems (WMS) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair-value range for Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. (WMS) is $48.59 – $192.05, built on a 10.0% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Advanced Drainage Systems stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 19.7% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 10.1% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $128.20. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Advanced Drainage Systems (WMS) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. (WMS): Coyle Patrick M. Jr, See Remarks, shares withheld (tax) on 2026-09-01. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.
Other ways into the coverage
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.