XRO.AX · Intrinsic value
Is Xero Limited (XRO.AX) overvalued or undervalued?
Xero Limited (XRO.AX) trades at the delayed market price of A$60.32 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. TickerWorth's fair value is A$39.76 a share (52% above fair value), as of Oct 19, 2026. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
Is XRO.AX overvalued?
- Fair value
- A$39.76
- Market price
- A$60.32
- Downside to fair value
- 34.1%
- Verdict
- 52% above fair value
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. Above about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative. It solves for revenue growth alone — holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed — so a price well above our cash-flow model's value has nowhere to go but growth, and the solver returns a rate the model can't reconcile. Read it as "the price implies growth we can't justify", not as a forecast.
What is XRO.AX's TickerWorth Score?
Scores lower than most companies we compare it with
Compared with Technology companies in Australia
Its strongest point: looks cheap on the numbers. Its weakest: recent price trend has been weak.
- Value · 56 of 100
Cheaper than 56% of Technology companies worldwide
- Price vs worth · 23 of 100
- Quality · 49 of 100
More profitable than 49% of Technology companies worldwide
- Financial health · 42 of 100
Financially stronger than 42% of Technology companies worldwide
- Growth · 40 of 100
Growing faster than 40% of Technology companies worldwide
- Momentum · 2 of 100
Outperformed 2% of Technology companies worldwide over the past year
Confidence: High confidence · Scored
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XRO.AX DCF valuation: what the price assumes
At a recent price of A$60.32, Xero Limited (XRO.AX) trades 52% above TickerWorth's blended fair value of A$39.76 per share — a discounted-cash-flow model cross-checked against peer multiples and asset value — meaning the market currently prices XRO.AX overvalued vs our estimate of what the business is intrinsically worth. Our fair value sits below the market, an implied -34.1% move to close the gap if the business performs in line with our assumptions. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation — the value moves with the inputs, which you can test yourself using the WACC slider below.
Read the full reasoning
One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values XRO.AX at about A$34.18 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.
The valuation discounts Xero Limited's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 8.6%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 78% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — XRO.AX would need sustained revenue growth of more than 25%/yr to justify today's price, against about 16.6% a year compounded in our base case. We don't quote a precise figure here, because past about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative: it solves for revenue growth alone, holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed, so a price well above our fair value has nowhere to go but growth. The honest reading is that the price implies growth this model can't reconcile — not that we forecast it.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, XRO.AX's modeled DCF value ranges from about A$24.52 to A$57.08 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Xero Limited would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of XRO.AX's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind XRO.AX's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueLive feed — totalRevenue (TTM) | A$2,211,270,000 |
| Base EBIT marginComputed — trailing operatingMargins, held roughly flat | 11.5% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 30% → 24% → 17% → 10% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.3% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 0.81 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesLive feed — sharesOutstanding | 177M |
| Market priceLast known price · as of 2026-10-19 21:41 UTC | A$60.32 |
Change XRO.AX's assumptions
The discount-rate dial and the editable model
ProChange growth, margin and WACC yourself — Pro (7-day free trial, card required).
What does Xero Limited do?
What does it do?
Xero Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides online business solutions for small businesses and their advisors in Australia, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, the United States, and internationally. It offers accounting, payroll, payments and other solutions through its Xero platform. It operates in the Software - Application industry (Technology sector), headquartered in New Zealand. The company employs roughly 5,114 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $2.8B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $11 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 11.5%), after a 84% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 6.1% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks mixed: carries modest debt (0.4× equity), can just cover its short-term bills (1.1× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
XRO.AX insider trading
Insider filings are available for US-listed companies only.
Common questions
What is XRO.AX's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's blended fair value for Xero Limited (XRO.AX) is A$39.76 per share, versus a market price of A$60.32 (52% above fair value).
Is XRO.AX overvalued or undervalued?
On our blended fair value XRO.AX looks overvalued vs fair value at A$60.32. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for XRO.AX?
A WACC of 8.6% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Xero stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair value for Xero Limited (XRO.AX) is A$39.76 against a market price of A$60.32. Our read: 52% above fair value. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Xero (XRO.AX) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair value for Xero Limited (XRO.AX) is A$39.76, built on a 8.6% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Xero stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. Above about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative. It solves for revenue growth alone — holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed — so a price well above our cash-flow model's value has nowhere to go but growth, and the solver returns a rate the model can't reconcile. Read it as "the price implies growth we can't justify", not as a forecast. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of A$60.32. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Xero (XRO.AX) insider trading
We have no recent SEC Form 4 insider filings on file for Xero Limited (XRO.AX). Form 4 covers US-listed companies only.
Stocks below our fair value instead
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.