What is AMCR's intrinsic value?

TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Amcor plc (AMCR) between $32.35 and $100.92 per share, versus a market price of $43.85. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value, so we publish the range.

Is AMCR overvalued or undervalued?

At $43.85 the price sits inside a range too wide to call either way. We don't call AMCR overvalued or undervalued from a range this wide. This is an educational estimate, not advice.

What discount rate is used for AMCR?

A WACC of 7.4% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.

Is Amcor stock undervalued?

TickerWorth's fair-value range for Amcor plc (AMCR) is $32.35 – $100.92 against a market price of $43.85. Too wide to call. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.

Amcor (AMCR) DCF valuation and fair value

Our fair-value range for Amcor plc (AMCR) is $32.35 – $100.92, built on a 7.4% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.

What growth is priced into Amcor stock?

no growth rate up to 300%/yr justifies the price under these economics This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $43.85. A model estimate, not investment advice.

Amcor (AMCR) insider trading

The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Amcor plc (AMCR): Galvez Jean-Marc, See Remarks, option exercise on 2026-10-06. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.

AMCR · Intrinsic value

Is Amcor plc (AMCR) overvalued or undervalued?

Name: Amcor plc (AMCR) DCF intrinsic value
Creator: TickerWorth

As of Oct 19, 2026, TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Amcor plc (AMCR) at $32.35 – $100.92, too broad a range to say where the delayed market price of $43.85 sits in it, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.

Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from a hand-researched model · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made

Open full AMCR analysis

What is AMCR worth?

Backup data source

This price comes from our backup market-data feed.

Fair-value range: $32.35 – $100.92
Market price: $43.85
Gap to fair value: —
Verdict: Too wide to call

Price as of 19 Oct 2026, 13:16 UTC · Prices are delayed.Our valuation lenses disagree too widely on this company for us to publish a single number, so we publish the range instead. We do not call it over- or undervalued from a spread this wide.

Fair-value range against the delayed market price: Too wide to call.

Reverse DCF: no growth rate up to 300%/yr justifies the price under these economics

What is AMCR's TickerWorth Score?

B61/100

Cheap against our estimate — but a weaker business

Compared with Consumer Cyclical companies in US

Its strongest point: trades below our estimate of what it's worth. Its weakest: profitability is weak.

Value · 69 of 100
Cheaper than 69% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
Price vs worth · 89 of 100
Quality · 31 of 100
More profitable than 31% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
Financial health · 32 of 100
Financially stronger than 32% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
Growth · 85 of 100
Growing faster than 85% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
Momentum · 64 of 100
Outperformed 64% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US over the past year

Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored 19 Oct 2026, 13:16 UTC

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Where the numbers come from

Hand-researched model

What the modeller flagged

YEAR-1 FCF IS ~67% ABOVE AMCOR'S REPORTED FY2026 FCF (~$2.18B modeled vs $1,303M reported) — beyond the 20% line, so decomposed. The reported figure is LEVERED and after one-offs: add back interest paid $549M and the $290M of Berry transaction/integration cash, and deduct the ~$96M tax shield that interest earns, and FY2026's underlying UNLEVERED FCF is ~$2.05B. The model's Year 1 is ~6% above that, from the first slice of remaining synergies and lower restructuring cash. The unexplained $156M 'other' outflow in Amcor's FCF bridge (identical in FY2025) is the one item that could make this optimistic.
TERMINAL VALUE IS ~80% OF ENTERPRISE VALUE. Above the 75% line: the five forecast years are a modest part of the answer, and the result leans on the steady state — which, for a business whose organic sales are shrinking, is the most contestable part.
THE GAP IS MOSTLY A DISCOUNT-RATE DISAGREEMENT. At today's price the enterprise is valued at ~8.8x FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA and ~14.8x the model's Year-1 unlevered FCF. The model's 7.4% WACC on a business growing 2.5% forever produces ~21x. What closes the gap is a WACC near 9.5%, or zero growth after 2031 (see the explainer), not a different operating forecast — which says the market is pricing Amcor's leverage, its volume decline and its execution risk harder than a 0.75 beta does.
BETA IS AN ESTIMATE. The published 0.576 mostly measures pre-merger, lower-leverage Amcor; 0.75 splits a relevering estimate (~0.70) and a short post-merger regression (0.82). It is still below 1, as are all its US packaging peers. If the true risk of the levered combined company is nearer 1.0, the value falls ~$13/share.
FREE-CASH-FLOW GUIDANCE WAS CUT TWICE IN EFFECT. FY2026 FCF was guided at $1.8-1.9B, cut to $1.5-1.6B in May, and reported at $1,303M after $290M of deal costs ($1,593M before them). Whether that met the cut guidance depends on a definition the releases do not state. A business whose cash conversion keeps falling short of plan deserves the doubt the market is giving it; this model does not discount for that beyond the restructuring allowance.
NET DEBT IS TAKEN AT THE SEASONAL LOW (June 30) and excludes $1,068M of operating leases, a $243M net pension deficit and the $809M of supplier-financed payables inside trade payables. Management guides leverage to 3.5-3.6x net debt / EBITDA by December 2026.
WHAT THE AUTOMATIC MODEL GOT WRONG. TickerWorth's auto model extrapolates the reported +57% FY2026 sales growth, starting Year 1 at +19.9% and fading through +15.9%, +12.0% and +8.0% — so it grows a business with negative organic sales by ~75% in five years. That growth was the Berry acquisition, which the 10-K splits out (+52 points acquired, organic -2%). It also pairs a GAAP 8.1% margin with full D&A as capex and a 4.7% ERP; the growth error dominates.

Why AMCR gets a range, not one number

At a recent price of $43.85, Amcor plc (AMCR) sits inside a range too wide to call either way: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $32.35 and $100.92 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.

Read the full reasoning

The valuation discounts Amcor plc's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 7.4%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 79% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.

Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, AMCR's modeled DCF value ranges from about $39.53 to $164.60 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.

How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Amcor plc would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of AMCR's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.

Every input behind AMCR's DCF

Input	Value	Source
Base-year revenueAmcor FY2026 10-K (accession 0001748790-26-000022, filed 2026-08-14): Net sales FY2026 $23,506M, +57% on FY2025's $15,009M. THE +57% IS NOT GROWTH: Berry Global joined on 2025-04-30, so FY2025 carried two months of it and FY2026 twelve. The 10-K splits the change: ~$7,864M (52 points) acquired net of divestments, ~$649M FX, ~$240M raw-material pass-through, and the remaining ~$260M (-2%) is the organic business, 'primarily reflecting lower sales volume' (volume -2%, price/mix ~0). FY2026 is therefore the right base — the first year with the whole combined company in it — and the first year that can be grown from. PERIMETER: this figure still contains roughly $500M of sales from non-core businesses that Amcor has sold or is selling (four sold in FY2026, mostly at or near 2026-06-30, for $298M cash; 10-K Item 1A says divestments 'comprising approximately $500 million' of the ~$2.5B non-core portfolio are completed or in process). That leaves in Year 1, so it is handled in forecast.revenue_growth, not by restating the base. CROSS-CHECK: Q4 (June quarter) sales $6,398M, +26% reported, with organic -1% and volumes +0.5% on the combined prior-year business; H1 $11,194M, H2 $12,312M. No later quarter has been filed — the next report is the September 2026 quarter.	$23,506,000,000	Amcor FY2026 10-K (accession 0001748790-26-000022, filed 2026-08-14): Net sales FY2026 $23,506M, +57% on FY2025's $15,009M. THE +57% IS NOT GROWTH: Berry Global joined on 2025-04-30, so FY2025 carried two months of it and FY2026 twelve. The 10-K splits the change: ~$7,864M (52 points) acquired net of divestments, ~$649M FX, ~$240M raw-material pass-through, and the remaining ~$260M (-2%) is the organic business, 'primarily reflecting lower sales volume' (volume -2%, price/mix ~0). FY2026 is therefore the right base — the first year with the whole combined company in it — and the first year that can be grown from. PERIMETER: this figure still contains roughly $500M of sales from non-core businesses that Amcor has sold or is selling (four sold in FY2026, mostly at or near 2026-06-30, for $298M cash; 10-K Item 1A says divestments 'comprising approximately $500 million' of the ~$2.5B non-core portfolio are completed or in process). That leaves in Year 1, so it is handled in forecast.revenue_growth, not by restating the base. CROSS-CHECK: Q4 (June quarter) sales $6,398M, +26% reported, with organic -1% and volumes +0.5% on the combined prior-year business; H1 $11,194M, H2 $12,312M. No later quarter has been filed — the next report is the September 2026 quarter.
Base EBIT marginESTIMATEAssumption — Amcor FY2026 10-K (accession 0001748790-26-000022, filed 2026-08-14), Adjusted EBIT reconciliation: DERIVED, and it is the operating margin BEFORE amortization of acquired intangibles, AFTER a standing allowance for the restructuring Amcor books every year. Build: GAAP operating income $1,899M (8.08%). Amcor's Adjusted EBIT is $2,813M (11.97%) after adding back amortization of acquired intangibles $558M, restructuring/integration $266M, Berry transaction costs $32M, hyperinflation $19M, executive transition $15M, portfolio-review costs $22M, other $10M and an inventory step-up credit of -$6M. I accept the purchase-accounting and deal items as one-offs but NOT the whole list: (a) restructuring is perennial at Amcor — $97M in FY2024 and $97M in FY2025 before the Berry plan — so ~$95M/yr stays in as a run-rate cost; (b) Argentine hyperinflation ($19M) recurs; (c) the 'other' line nets $56M of one-off gains on business sales against ~$50M of pension settlements, legal and professional fees that also recur, so ~$25M stays in. $2,813M - $95M - $19M - $25M = $2,674M / $23,506M = 11.38%, used as 11.4%. WHY BEFORE ACQUIRED AMORTIZATION: the $558M is a non-cash charge on intangibles bought with shares, and it is paired here with a depreciation-only D&A add-back (da_pct_revenue). Taking EBIT after amortization and adding it back again would leave D&A permanently ~2pts of sales above capex in the terminal year, which overstates perpetual cash. Taxing EBIT before the amortization also gives it no tax shield, which is conservative: Berry goodwill is stated as not tax-deductible and book intangibles from a share deal generally carry no step-up. CROSS-CHECK: Adjusted EBIT margin by half was 11.5% (H1) and 12.4% (H2) — the business is seasonally stronger in the June half. Legacy Amcor's Adjusted EBIT margin was 11.4% (FY2024) and 11.5% (FY2025).	11.4%	ESTIMATEAssumption — Amcor FY2026 10-K (accession 0001748790-26-000022, filed 2026-08-14), Adjusted EBIT reconciliation: DERIVED, and it is the operating margin BEFORE amortization of acquired intangibles, AFTER a standing allowance for the restructuring Amcor books every year. Build: GAAP operating income $1,899M (8.08%). Amcor's Adjusted EBIT is $2,813M (11.97%) after adding back amortization of acquired intangibles $558M, restructuring/integration $266M, Berry transaction costs $32M, hyperinflation $19M, executive transition $15M, portfolio-review costs $22M, other $10M and an inventory step-up credit of -$6M. I accept the purchase-accounting and deal items as one-offs but NOT the whole list: (a) restructuring is perennial at Amcor — $97M in FY2024 and $97M in FY2025 before the Berry plan — so ~$95M/yr stays in as a run-rate cost; (b) Argentine hyperinflation ($19M) recurs; (c) the 'other' line nets $56M of one-off gains on business sales against ~$50M of pension settlements, legal and professional fees that also recur, so ~$25M stays in. $2,813M - $95M - $19M - $25M = $2,674M / $23,506M = 11.38%, used as 11.4%. WHY BEFORE ACQUIRED AMORTIZATION: the $558M is a non-cash charge on intangibles bought with shares, and it is paired here with a depreciation-only D&A add-back (da_pct_revenue). Taking EBIT after amortization and adding it back again would leave D&A permanently ~2pts of sales above capex in the terminal year, which overstates perpetual cash. Taxing EBIT before the amortization also gives it no tax shield, which is conservative: Berry goodwill is stated as not tax-deductible and book intangibles from a share deal generally carry no step-up. CROSS-CHECK: Adjusted EBIT margin by half was 11.5% (H1) and 12.4% (H2) — the business is seasonally stronger in the June half. Legacy Amcor's Adjusted EBIT margin was 11.4% (FY2024) and 11.5% (FY2025).
Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast	0% → 2% → 2% → 2% → 2%	ESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast
Risk-free rateUS 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation; program-wide input shared by every researched model.	5.2%	US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation; program-wide input shared by every researched model.
BetaESTIMATEAssumption — yfinance 5Y-monthly beta (0.576) + relevering estimate + post-merger weekly regression: NORMALIZED UP from the published 0.576 — conservative (raises WACC, lowers value). Reason: the 5-year monthly window is ~70% pre-merger, when Amcor carried ~$6.6B of debt (10-K XBRL, FY2021-24) against roughly $15-20B of equity (debt/equity ~0.4); it now carries $14.0B against $19.3B (0.73). Unlevering 0.576 at D/E 0.4 and relevering at 0.73 (17.5% tax) gives ~0.70. A weekly regression on the post-merger period alone (May 2025-Oct 2026, 74 weeks, vs the S&P 500, computed from yfinance prices) gives 0.82 — noisy, but it is the only window that measures the combined company. 0.75 sits between the two. For reference, packaging peers' 5Y-monthly betas run 0.35-0.67 (SON 0.37, ATR 0.35, CCK 0.57, GPK 0.65, SLGN 0.67). Each 0.1 of beta is worth about $6-7/share: the published 0.576 would give ~$82, a beta of 1.0 ~$58.	0.75	ESTIMATEAssumption — yfinance 5Y-monthly beta (0.576) + relevering estimate + post-merger weekly regression: NORMALIZED UP from the published 0.576 — conservative (raises WACC, lowers value). Reason: the 5-year monthly window is ~70% pre-merger, when Amcor carried ~$6.6B of debt (10-K XBRL, FY2021-24) against roughly $15-20B of equity (debt/equity ~0.4); it now carries $14.0B against $19.3B (0.73). Unlevering 0.576 at D/E 0.4 and relevering at 0.73 (17.5% tax) gives ~0.70. A weekly regression on the post-merger period alone (May 2025-Oct 2026, 74 weeks, vs the S&P 500, computed from yfinance prices) gives 0.82 — noisy, but it is the only window that measures the combined company. 0.75 sits between the two. For reference, packaging peers' 5Y-monthly betas run 0.35-0.67 (SON 0.37, ATR 0.35, CCK 0.57, GPK 0.65, SLGN 0.67). Each 0.1 of beta is worth about $6-7/share: the published 0.576 would give ~$82, a beta of 1.0 ~$58.
Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5%, kept for comparability. FLAG — this is generous for Amcor: organic sales fell ~2% in FY2026, the Berry legacy business came with years of volume decline, and the company is actively shrinking its portfolio (~$2.5B of 'non-core' sales under review). Packaging revenue tracks resin prices and food/health volumes, which argues for roughly inflation-level nominal growth over the long run, but no better. A 2.0% terminal rate takes ~$7.50/share off; ZERO terminal growth takes the value to ~$43. Well below the 7.43% WACC.	2.5%	ESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5%, kept for comparability. FLAG — this is generous for Amcor: organic sales fell ~2% in FY2026, the Berry legacy business came with years of volume decline, and the company is actively shrinking its portfolio (~$2.5B of 'non-core' sales under review). Packaging revenue tracks resin prices and food/health volumes, which argues for roughly inflation-level nominal growth over the long run, but no better. A 2.0% terminal rate takes ~$7.50/share off; ZERO terminal growth takes the value to ~$43. Well below the 7.43% WACC.
Diluted sharesAmcor Q4 FY2026 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001748790-26-000020, filed 2026-08-12): Weighted-average diluted shares for the June 2026 quarter, 464.6M (full year 463.8M), POST 1-for-5 consolidation — the release states all periods are retroactively adjusted. CHECKED AGAINST THE SPLIT: 462.3M shares issued at 2026-06-30 on the balance sheet, and ~2.3B before the split (the Berry deal issued ~846M pre-split shares); 462M x the 5 Oct close = $19.3B, matching the quoted market cap, so price and share count are on the same basis. No buyback programme ran in FY2026; a renewal of the buyback authority is on the 2026-11-11 AGM agenda.	465M	Amcor Q4 FY2026 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001748790-26-000020, filed 2026-08-12): Weighted-average diluted shares for the June 2026 quarter, 464.6M (full year 463.8M), POST 1-for-5 consolidation — the release states all periods are retroactively adjusted. CHECKED AGAINST THE SPLIT: 462.3M shares issued at 2026-06-30 on the balance sheet, and ~2.3B before the split (the Berry deal issued ~846M pre-split shares); 462M x the 5 Oct close = $19.3B, matching the quoted market cap, so price and share count are on the same basis. No buyback programme ran in FY2026; a renewal of the buyback authority is on the 2026-11-11 AGM agenda.
Market priceBackup price feed · as of 2026-10-19 13:16 UTC	$43.85	Backup price feed · as of 2026-10-19 13:16 UTC

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What does Amcor plc do?

What does it do?

Amcor plc, together with its subsidiaries, develops and produces packaging solutions for nutrition, health, beauty, and wellness categories in Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Asia Pacific. Its products include apparel, applicators, bags and bulk bags, bottles and vials, building materials, canisters and jerrycans, drinking cups, films and laminates, jars, lids, tapes and adhesives, trays, tubes, wipes packaging solutions, and miscellaneous and accessories, as well as tubs and pots. It operates in the Packaging & Containers industry (Consumer Cyclical sector), headquartered in Switzerland. The company employs roughly 75,000 people.

How does it make money?

The business turns $23.5B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $10 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 9.7%), after a 20% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 4.7% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.

Is it financially healthy?

Financially it looks stretched: carries moderate debt (1.3× equity), can just cover its short-term bills (1.3× current ratio), and is currently profitable.

Who at AMCR filed insider trades?

Recent insider filings for Amcor plc
Date	Insider	Relationship	What happened	Value	Filing
6 Oct 2026	Galvez Jean-Marc	See Remarks	Option exercise	—	Form 4 for Galvez Jean-Marc (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
6 Oct 2026	Galvez Jean-Marc	See Remarks	Shares withheld (tax)	$387,862.20	Form 4 for Galvez Jean-Marc (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
15 Sept 2026	Konieczny Peter	Chief Executive Officer	Option exercise	—	Form 4 for Konieczny Peter (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
15 Sept 2026	Konieczny Peter	Chief Executive Officer	Shares withheld (tax)	$35,616.75	Form 4 for Konieczny Peter (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
15 Sept 2026	Galvez Jean-Marc	See Remarks	Option exercise	—	Form 4 for Galvez Jean-Marc (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
15 Sept 2026	Galvez Jean-Marc	See Remarks	Shares withheld (tax)	$81,500.25	Form 4 for Galvez Jean-Marc (opens sec.gov in a new tab)

A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans

Common questions

What is AMCR's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Amcor plc (AMCR) between $32.35 and $100.92 per share, versus a market price of $43.85. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value, so we publish the range.
Is AMCR overvalued or undervalued?
At $43.85 the price sits inside a range too wide to call either way. We don't call AMCR overvalued or undervalued from a range this wide. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for AMCR?
A WACC of 7.4% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Amcor stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair-value range for Amcor plc (AMCR) is $32.35 – $100.92 against a market price of $43.85. Too wide to call. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Amcor (AMCR) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair-value range for Amcor plc (AMCR) is $32.35 – $100.92, built on a 7.4% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Amcor stock?
no growth rate up to 300%/yr justifies the price under these economics This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $43.85. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Amcor (AMCR) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Amcor plc (AMCR): Galvez Jean-Marc, See Remarks, option exercise on 2026-10-06. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.