What is AOS's intrinsic value?

TickerWorth's valuation lenses put A. O. Smith Corporation (AOS) between $25.19 and $107.83 per share, versus a market price of $59.22. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value, so we publish the range.

Is AOS overvalued or undervalued?

At $59.22 the price sits inside a range too wide to call either way. We don't call AOS overvalued or undervalued from a range this wide. This is an educational estimate, not advice.

What discount rate is used for AOS?

A WACC of 10.3% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.

Is A. O. Smith stock undervalued?

TickerWorth's fair-value range for A. O. Smith Corporation (AOS) is $25.19 – $107.83 against a market price of $59.22. Too wide to call. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.

A. O. Smith (AOS) DCF valuation and fair value

Our fair-value range for A. O. Smith Corporation (AOS) is $25.19 – $107.83, built on a 10.3% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.

What growth is priced into A. O. Smith stock?

Today's price implies revenue growth of 6.7% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 3.1% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $59.22. A model estimate, not investment advice.

A. O. Smith (AOS) insider trading

The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for A. O. Smith Corporation (AOS): SMITH MARK D, Director, grant / award on 2026-04-13. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.

AOS · Intrinsic value

Is A. O. Smith Corporation (AOS) overvalued or undervalued?

Name: A. O. Smith Corporation (AOS) DCF intrinsic value
Creator: TickerWorth

As of Oct 19, 2026, TickerWorth's valuation lenses put A. O. Smith Corporation (AOS) at $25.19 – $107.83, too broad a range to say where the delayed market price of $59.22 sits in it, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.

Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from a hand-researched model · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made

Open full AOS analysis

What is AOS worth?

Fair-value range: $25.19 – $107.83
Market price: $59.22
Gap to fair value: —
Verdict: Too wide to call

Price as of 19 Oct 2026, 13:15 UTC · Prices are delayed.Our valuation lenses disagree too widely on this company for us to publish a single number, so we publish the range instead. We do not call it over- or undervalued from a spread this wide.

Fair-value range against the delayed market price: Too wide to call.

Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 6.7% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 3.1% a year on average over the same horizon.

What is AOS's TickerWorth Score?

C54/100

Middle of the pack — real strengths and real weaknesses

Compared with Industrials companies in US

Its strongest point: looks cheap on the numbers. Its weakest: growth is slow or negative.

Value · 72 of 100
Cheaper than 72% of Industrials companies in US
Price vs worth · 58 of 100
Quality · 69 of 100
More profitable than 69% of Industrials companies in US
Financial health · 68 of 100
Financially stronger than 68% of Industrials companies in US
Growth · 9 of 100
Growing faster than 9% of Industrials companies in US
Momentum · 19 of 100
Outperformed 19% of Industrials companies in US over the past year

Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored 19 Oct 2026, 13:15 UTC

Get the Undervalued Company of the Week.

Where the numbers come from

Hand-researched model

What the modeller flagged

THE MODEL LANDS ~14% BELOW TODAY'S PRICE - THE OPPOSITE OF THE AUTOMATIC MODEL'S +117% READ. At the house discount rate (5.24% Treasury + 1.11 x 5% ERP = 10.79% cost of equity; WACC 10.33%) and 2.5% perpetual growth, a business generating ~$0.53-0.63B of free cash flow a year is worth ~$7.2B of enterprise value; the market pays ~$8.2B (market cap ~$7.7B + net debt $0.46B). Today's price needs a beta of ~0.89 (WACC ~9.3%), or a ~21.9% operating margin from 2027 (above anything reported in ten years), or ~6.8% revenue growth a year for five years, or terminal growth of ~3.8%. See what_market_believes.
TERMINAL VALUE IS ~70% OF ENTERPRISE VALUE - below the 75% line, because a ~10.4% discount rate shrinks distant years hard. Implied exit multiple ~8.9x 2030 EBITDA, against ~10.1x FY2025 EBITDA ($728.6M + $85.1M D&A) at today's price.
YEAR-1 FCF (~$526M) IS ~4% BELOW THE LAST REPORTED FY2025 FCF ($546M) and sits AT THE LOW END of management's FY2026 FCF guide ($525-575M, Q2 10-Q). It is ~17% below trailing-twelve-month FCF ($639M), which is flattered by H1 2026 working-capital release. Inside the 20% threshold on the fiscal-year comparison.
THE CHINA DECISION IS NOT MODELED AND LANDS BEFORE THE NEXT FILING. The assessment is due to conclude around the 2026-10-29 Q3 call. Any sale, joint venture or write-down changes the revenue base, the margin path (China drags the consolidated margin) and the net-debt bridge. This file needs a re-run after that call.
YEAR 1 IS ALREADY HALF REPORTED (H1 ended 2026-06-30). The engine discounts all of FY2026 a full year while H1's cash already sits in the 2026-06-30 balance sheet; the two roughly offset.
YEAR-1 MARGIN IS DERIVED FROM EPS GUIDANCE, NOT GUIDED. The ~$2M other-expense and ~23% tax inside the back-solve are mine; a 1pt different tax rate moves the implied Y1 margin by ~0.2pt.
SBC of $13.8M (0.36% of sales, FY2025) stays expensed inside EBIT; dilution is captured by the weighted diluted share count.

Why AOS gets a range, not one number

At a recent price of $59.22, A. O. Smith Corporation (AOS) sits inside a range too wide to call either way: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $25.19 and $107.83 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.

Read the full reasoning

The valuation discounts A. O. Smith Corporation's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 10.3%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 70% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.

Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 6.7% annual revenue growth for AOS. Our base case instead compounds to about 3.1% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in materially faster growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.

Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, AOS's modeled DCF value ranges from about $37.47 to $71.28 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.

How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what A. O. Smith Corporation would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of AOS's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.

Every input behind AOS's DCF

Input	Value	Source
Base-year revenueA. O. Smith FY2025 10-K (accession 0000091142-26-000008, filed 2026-02-10), calendar year ended 2025-12-31; Q4/FY2025 results 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0000091142-26-000005, 2026-01-29): Net sales $3,830.2M (us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax), +0.3% on FY2024's $3,818.1M. FLAT FOR THREE YEARS: FY2023 $3,852.8M, FY2024 $3,818.1M, FY2025 $3,830.2M, after the 2021-22 price-led jump from $2,895M (FY2020). Segment split: North America $2,984.2M (78%; water heaters, boilers, water treatment) and Rest of World $880.4M (22%, majority China; China was ~18% of total sales), less $34.4M inter-segment. FY2025 included $54M from Pureit (India, acquired late 2024); China third-party sales fell 12%. Two customers took 16% and 12% of sales; the top five ~41% (10-K). UNCHANGED as the base - the DCF grows it by forecast.revenue_growth. CROSS-CHECK on the latest quarter (8-K Ex-99.1, 2026-07-30, accession 0000091142-26-000096): H1 2026 net sales $1,949.9M, -1.3% on H1 2025's $1,975.2M, including ~$32M from Leonard Valve (acquired 2026-01-06); organic -4%. North America +3% (organic +1%); Rest of World -15% with China -28% in local currency in Q2. Trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30: $3,804.9M.	$3,830,200,000	A. O. Smith FY2025 10-K (accession 0000091142-26-000008, filed 2026-02-10), calendar year ended 2025-12-31; Q4/FY2025 results 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0000091142-26-000005, 2026-01-29): Net sales $3,830.2M (us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax), +0.3% on FY2024's $3,818.1M. FLAT FOR THREE YEARS: FY2023 $3,852.8M, FY2024 $3,818.1M, FY2025 $3,830.2M, after the 2021-22 price-led jump from $2,895M (FY2020). Segment split: North America $2,984.2M (78%; water heaters, boilers, water treatment) and Rest of World $880.4M (22%, majority China; China was ~18% of total sales), less $34.4M inter-segment. FY2025 included $54M from Pureit (India, acquired late 2024); China third-party sales fell 12%. Two customers took 16% and 12% of sales; the top five ~41% (10-K). UNCHANGED as the base - the DCF grows it by forecast.revenue_growth. CROSS-CHECK on the latest quarter (8-K Ex-99.1, 2026-07-30, accession 0000091142-26-000096): H1 2026 net sales $1,949.9M, -1.3% on H1 2025's $1,975.2M, including ~$32M from Leonard Valve (acquired 2026-01-06); organic -4%. North America +3% (organic +1%); Rest of World -15% with China -28% in local currency in Q2. Trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30: $3,804.9M.
Base EBIT marginA. O. Smith Q4/FY2025 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0000091142-26-000005, filed 2026-01-29) + FY2025 10-K XBRL (us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss): Operating income $728.6M (tagged us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss in the 10-K) / $3,830.2M = 19.02%. A. O. Smith prints no operating-income line on the face of the statement; the build is gross profit $1,487.4M - SG&A $759.4M = $728.0M (19.01%), and the tagged figure is the same thing plus $0.6M of other income. Equivalently, segment earnings $804.1M less corporate expense ~$75.5M. No restructuring in FY2025 (FY2024 carried $17.6M). It is a CLEAN, MID-CYCLE base, not a peak: on the same tag the margin was 19.2% (FY2016), 19.3% (2017), 19.2% (2018), 17.7% (2019), 17.4% (2020), 19.3% (2021), 19.3% (2023), 18.5% (2024) - FY2022's 9.6% is a one-off non-cash pension-settlement charge. FY2025 sits on the 10-year average of ~19%. CROSS-CHECK, H1 2026 (8-K Ex-99.1, 2026-07-30): gross profit $753.5M - SG&A $401.6M - restructuring $22.6M = $329.3M, a 16.9% GAAP margin; 18.05% excluding the restructuring, against 19.67% in H1 2025. The ~160bp of underlying slippage is China deleverage (Rest of World segment margin 5.7% vs 9.6%), steel up ~20% YoY in Q2 ahead of price increases that only start landing mid-Q3, ~$6.8M of Leonard Valve deal costs and new acquired-intangible amortization.	19.0%	A. O. Smith Q4/FY2025 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0000091142-26-000005, filed 2026-01-29) + FY2025 10-K XBRL (us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss): Operating income $728.6M (tagged us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss in the 10-K) / $3,830.2M = 19.02%. A. O. Smith prints no operating-income line on the face of the statement; the build is gross profit $1,487.4M - SG&A $759.4M = $728.0M (19.01%), and the tagged figure is the same thing plus $0.6M of other income. Equivalently, segment earnings $804.1M less corporate expense ~$75.5M. No restructuring in FY2025 (FY2024 carried $17.6M). It is a CLEAN, MID-CYCLE base, not a peak: on the same tag the margin was 19.2% (FY2016), 19.3% (2017), 19.2% (2018), 17.7% (2019), 17.4% (2020), 19.3% (2021), 19.3% (2023), 18.5% (2024) - FY2022's 9.6% is a one-off non-cash pension-settlement charge. FY2025 sits on the 10-year average of ~19%. CROSS-CHECK, H1 2026 (8-K Ex-99.1, 2026-07-30): gross profit $753.5M - SG&A $401.6M - restructuring $22.6M = $329.3M, a 16.9% GAAP margin; 18.05% excluding the restructuring, against 19.67% in H1 2025. The ~160bp of underlying slippage is China deleverage (Rest of World segment margin 5.7% vs 9.6%), steel up ~20% YoY in Q2 ahead of price increases that only start landing mid-Q3, ~$6.8M of Leonard Valve deal costs and new acquired-intangible amortization.
Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast	2% → 3% → 4% → 4% → 3%	ESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast
Risk-free rateUS 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation; the program-wide rate shared by every researched model in this run.	5.2%	US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation; the program-wide rate shared by every researched model in this run.
BetaYahoo Finance 5Y-monthly beta via yfinance, read 2026-10-05: Published 5Y-monthly beta 1.11, used AS IS - no normalization, the same policy as Masco (1.294) and Home Depot (0.955) in this tracker. Plausible for a building-products manufacturer with steel-input exposure, ~22% of sales in a shrinking China consumer market and a share price that has fallen from the low $80s to the mid-$50s over the last year. It is the biggest lever after margins: each 0.1 of beta is worth ~$3.15/share (1.01 gives ~$52.35; 1.21 ~$46.10), and a beta of ~0.89 (WACC ~9.3%) is what today's price needs. A 'defensive replacement business' argument would push it lower; the China drawdown argues against.	1.11	Yahoo Finance 5Y-monthly beta via yfinance, read 2026-10-05: Published 5Y-monthly beta 1.11, used AS IS - no normalization, the same policy as Masco (1.294) and Home Depot (0.955) in this tracker. Plausible for a building-products manufacturer with steel-input exposure, ~22% of sales in a shrinking China consumer market and a share price that has fallen from the low $80s to the mid-$50s over the last year. It is the biggest lever after margins: each 0.1 of beta is worth ~$3.15/share (1.01 gives ~$52.35; 1.21 ~$46.10), and a beta of ~0.89 (WACC ~9.3%) is what today's price needs. A 'defensive replacement business' argument would push it lower; the China drawdown argues against.
Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability. Neither generous nor stingy for A. O. Smith: sales compounded ~4.1% a year FY2016-25 including the 2021-22 pricing surge and a buy-and-build strategy, but have been flat for three years. 3.0% adds ~$2.70/share; 2.0% takes ~$2.35 off. Must remain < WACC of 10.33%.	2.5%	ESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability. Neither generous nor stingy for A. O. Smith: sales compounded ~4.1% a year FY2016-25 including the 2021-22 pricing surge and a buy-and-build strategy, but have been flat for three years. 3.0% adds ~$2.70/share; 2.0% takes ~$2.35 off. Must remain < WACC of 10.33%.
Diluted sharesA. O. Smith Q2 2026 10-Q (accession 0000091142-26-000098) Note 8, Earnings per Share: Q2 2026 denominator for diluted EPS 137,862,584 (H1 138,511,483; FY2025 141.9M). Covers BOTH share classes. NOTE THE TRAP: yfinance's sharesOutstanding (110.0M) is Common Stock only and omits the 25.9M Class A shares held largely by the Smith family voting trust - per-share math on 110M would overstate value by ~25%. The count is falling ~3% a year (176.8M in FY2016); 135.9M were outstanding at 2026-07-28 and management targets $300M of 2026 buybacks ($162.4M done in H1). Using the weighted Q2 count is the house rule and mildly conservative: 135.9M would add ~$0.72/share.	138M	A. O. Smith Q2 2026 10-Q (accession 0000091142-26-000098) Note 8, Earnings per Share: Q2 2026 denominator for diluted EPS 137,862,584 (H1 138,511,483; FY2025 141.9M). Covers BOTH share classes. NOTE THE TRAP: yfinance's sharesOutstanding (110.0M) is Common Stock only and omits the 25.9M Class A shares held largely by the Smith family voting trust - per-share math on 110M would overstate value by ~25%. The count is falling ~3% a year (176.8M in FY2016); 135.9M were outstanding at 2026-07-28 and management targets $300M of 2026 buybacks ($162.4M done in H1). Using the weighted Q2 count is the house rule and mildly conservative: 135.9M would add ~$0.72/share.
Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 13:15 UTC	$59.22	Delayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 13:15 UTC

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What does A. O. Smith Corporation do?

What does it do?

A. O. It operates in the Specialty Industrial Machinery industry (Industrials sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 11,500 people.

How does it make money?

The business turns $3.8B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $19 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 18.9%), after a 39% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 13.1% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.

Is it financially healthy?

Financially it looks mixed: carries modest debt (0.4× equity), comfortably covers its short-term bills (1.6× current ratio), and is currently profitable.

Who at AOS filed insider trades?

Recent insider filings for A. O. Smith Corporation
Date	Insider	Relationship	What happened	Value	Filing
13 Apr 2026	SMITH MARK D	Director	Grant / award	$150,015.84	Form 4 for SMITH MARK D (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
13 Apr 2026	MARTIN LOIS M	Director	Grant / award	$150,015.84	Form 4 for MARTIN LOIS M (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
13 Apr 2026	MAPES CHRISTOPHER L	Director	Grant / award	$150,015.84	Form 4 for MAPES CHRISTOPHER L (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
13 Apr 2026	Kadri Ilham	Director	Grant / award	$150,015.84	Form 4 for Kadri Ilham (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
13 Apr 2026	Fister Todd W	Director	Grant / award	$150,015.84	Form 4 for Fister Todd W (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
4 Mar 2026	Schuh Darrell W.	SVP; President & GM Lochinvar	Open-market sale	$82,126.34	Form 4 for Schuh Darrell W. (opens sec.gov in a new tab)

A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans

Common questions

What is AOS's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's valuation lenses put A. O. Smith Corporation (AOS) between $25.19 and $107.83 per share, versus a market price of $59.22. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value, so we publish the range.
Is AOS overvalued or undervalued?
At $59.22 the price sits inside a range too wide to call either way. We don't call AOS overvalued or undervalued from a range this wide. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for AOS?
A WACC of 10.3% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is A. O. Smith stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair-value range for A. O. Smith Corporation (AOS) is $25.19 – $107.83 against a market price of $59.22. Too wide to call. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
A. O. Smith (AOS) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair-value range for A. O. Smith Corporation (AOS) is $25.19 – $107.83, built on a 10.3% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into A. O. Smith stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 6.7% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 3.1% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $59.22. A model estimate, not investment advice.
A. O. Smith (AOS) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for A. O. Smith Corporation (AOS): SMITH MARK D, Director, grant / award on 2026-04-13. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.