BABA · Intrinsic value
Is Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) overvalued or undervalued?
Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) trades at the delayed market price of $109.11 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of 5.7% a year for 5 years. TickerWorth's fair value is $151.97 a share (priced within our range of $86.36 – $235.16). We do not call it over- or undervalued from inside our range.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from SEC filings and market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
Is BABA fairly valued?
- Fair value
- $151.97
- Market price
- $109.11
- Upside to fair value
- +39.3%
- Verdict
- Priced within our range of $86.36 – $235.16
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 5.7% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 7.9% a year on average over the same horizon.
What is BABA's TickerWorth Score?
Scores higher than most companies we compare it with
Compared with Consumer Cyclical companies in US
Its strongest point: trades below our estimate of what it's worth. Its weakest: recent price trend has been weak.
- Value · 60 of 100
Cheaper than 60% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
- Price vs worth · 81 of 100
- Quality · 38 of 100
More profitable than 38% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
- Financial health · 79 of 100
Financially stronger than 79% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
- Growth · 54 of 100
Growing faster than 54% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
- Momentum · 21 of 100
Outperformed 21% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US over the past year
Confidence: High confidence · Scored
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BABA DCF valuation, input by input
TickerWorth's fair value for Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) is $151.97 a share, against the delayed market price of $109.11 (priced within our range of $86.36 – $235.16). We do not call it over- or undervalued from inside our range. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
Read the full reasoning
One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values BABA at about $116.43 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.
The valuation discounts Alibaba Group Holding Limited's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 7.3%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 84% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 5.7% annual revenue growth for BABA. Our base case instead compounds to about 7.9% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in slower growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, BABA's modeled DCF value ranges from about $79.63 to $233.21 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Alibaba Group Holding Limited would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of BABA's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind BABA's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueAlibaba Group Holding Limited FY2026 20-F (accession 0001193125-26-231755): us-gaap:Revenues, FY2026 full year. | $152,502,050,000 |
| Base EBIT marginAlibaba Group Holding Limited FY2026 20-F (accession 0001193125-26-231755): us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss 50,150,000,000 / revenue 1,023,670,000,000 = 4.90%, FY2026. | 4.9% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 12% → 10% → 8% → 6% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.2% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 0.50 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesLive feed — sharesOutstanding | 2,486M |
| Market priceBackup price feed · as of 2026-10-19 12:43 UTC | $109.11 |
Change BABA's assumptions
The discount-rate dial and the editable model
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What does Alibaba Group Holding Limited do?
What does it do?
Alibaba Group Holding Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides technology infrastructure and marketing reach to help merchants, brands, retailers, and other businesses in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates through the Alibaba China E-Commerce Group, Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group, Cloud Intelligence Group, and All Others segments. It operates in the Internet Retail industry (Consumer Cyclical sector), headquartered in China. The company employs roughly 132,165 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $1.0T in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $7 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 7.3%), after a 38% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 7.0% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks solid: carries modest debt (0.2× equity), can just cover its short-term bills (1.4× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
Who at BABA filed insider trades?
| Date | Insider | Relationship | What happened | Value | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tsai Joseph C | Director | Option exercise | — | Form 4 for Tsai Joseph C (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Tsai Joseph C | Director | Option exercise | — | Form 4 for Tsai Joseph C (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Wu Yongming | Director, Chief Executive Officer | Option exercise | — | Form 4 for Wu Yongming (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Wu Yongming | Director, Chief Executive Officer | Option exercise | — | Form 4 for Wu Yongming (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Jiang Fang | Chief People Officer | Open-market sale | $11,995,435.60 | Form 4 for Jiang Fang (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Jiang Fan (FJ) | CEO of Business Group | Option exercise | — | Form 4 for Jiang Fan (FJ) (opens sec.gov in a new tab) |
A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans
Common questions
What is BABA's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's blended fair value for Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) is $151.97 per share, versus a market price of $109.11 (priced within our range of $86.36 – $235.16).
Is BABA overvalued or undervalued?
Priced within our range of $86.36 – $235.16 at $109.11. We don't call BABA overvalued or undervalued from a range. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for BABA?
A WACC of 7.3% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Alibaba Group stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair value for Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) is $151.97 against a market price of $109.11. Our read: Priced within our range of $86.36 – $235.16. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Alibaba Group (BABA) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair value for Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) is $151.97, built on a 7.3% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Alibaba Group stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 5.7% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 7.9% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $109.11. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Alibaba Group (BABA) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA): Tsai Joseph C, Director, option exercise on 2026-10-01. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.
How does BABA compare with its peers?
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Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.