Is BLDR overvalued or undervalued?

At $53.92 the price sits below every lens we ran. We don't call BLDR overvalued or undervalued from a range. This is an educational estimate, not advice.

What discount rate is used for BLDR?

A WACC of 9.4% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.

Is Builders FirstSource stock undervalued?

TickerWorth's fair-value range for Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR) is $54.41 – $108.97 against a market price of $53.92. Priced below our range. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.

Builders FirstSource (BLDR) DCF valuation and fair value

Our fair-value range for Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR) is $54.41 – $108.97, built on a 9.4% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.

What growth is priced into Builders FirstSource stock?

no growth rate up to 300%/yr justifies the price under these economics This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $53.92. A model estimate, not investment advice.

Builders FirstSource (BLDR) insider trading

The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR): Hiller Michael, COO-Designate, grant / award on 2026-10-18. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.

BLDR · Intrinsic value

Is Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR) overvalued or undervalued?

Name: Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR) DCF intrinsic value
Creator: TickerWorth

As of Oct 20, 2026, TickerWorth publishes a fair-value range of $54.41 – $108.97 for Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR), against the delayed market price of $53.92: priced below our range. It is a range, not a single number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.

Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from a hand-researched model · Updated Oct 20, 2026 · How these pages are made

Open full BLDR analysis

What is BLDR worth?

Backup data source

This price comes from our backup market-data feed.

Fair-value range: $54.41 – $108.97; A range by design: peer multiples and our researched mid-cycle DCF.
Market price: $53.92
Gap to fair value: —
Verdict: Priced below our range

Price as of 20 Oct 2026, 23:07 UTC · Prices are delayed.We publish this company as a range by design, not because our valuation lenses disagree, and we do not collapse it to a single number. We do not call it over- or undervalued from a range.

Fair-value range against the delayed market price: Priced below our range.

Reverse DCF: no growth rate up to 300%/yr justifies the price under these economics

What is BLDR's TickerWorth Score?

C50/100

Middle of the pack — real strengths and real weaknesses

Compared with Industrials companies in US

Its strongest point: trades below our estimate of what it's worth. Its weakest: profitability is weak.

Value · 73 of 100
Cheaper than 73% of Industrials companies in US
Price vs worth · 99 of 100
Quality · 22 of 100
More profitable than 22% of Industrials companies in US
Financial health · 26 of 100
Financially stronger than 26% of Industrials companies in US
Growth · 50 of 100
Growing faster than 50% of Industrials companies in US
Momentum · 7 of 100
Outperformed 7% of Industrials companies in US over the past year

Confidence: High confidence · Scored 20 Oct 2026, 23:07 UTC

Get the Undervalued Company of the Week.

Where the numbers come from

Hand-researched model

What the modeller flagged

THE MODEL LANDS CLOSE TO THE MARKET, NOT 77% ABOVE IT. Enterprise value ~$10.4B on these assumptions vs ~$10.6B the market pays (equity ~$6.0B + net debt $4.6B). The equity is a thin slice on top of a lot of debt, so small operating changes swing it hard: a 2030 margin of 9.7% (FY2024's level) gives ~$84, 7.0% gives ~$48, and a margin stuck at 2026's 1.85% leaves the equity worth less than nothing. That leverage, not the point estimate, is the real message.
TERMINAL VALUE IS ~80% OF ENTERPRISE VALUE - above the 75% line, because 2026-27 are trough years with little free cash and most of the value sits in the assumed recovery. Implied exit multiple ~8.2x 2030 EBITDA (EBIT plus depreciation).
YEAR-1 FCF (~$370M unlevered) IS ~57% BELOW FY2025's REPORTED $853M (OCF less capex). Most of the gap is real: GAAP operating profit is guided to fall from $786M to ~$260M. The rest is method: (a) the ~$278M of 2026 amortization is a non-cash charge the house treatment does not add back; (b) reported FCF is after interest while the model's is before. Management guides 2026 FCF (after ~$285M of interest) to ~$0.4-0.5B, i.e. roughly $0.6-0.7B unlevered with amortization added back - the model's lower figure is the conservative amortization treatment, worth ~$7/share over the five forecast years.
YEAR 1 IS ALREADY HALF REPORTED. H1 2026 cash flow ($75M FCF) is already reflected in the 2026-06-30 net debt, yet the engine discounts the whole of 2026 a full year. Because working capital is seasonally high at June 30 (receivables and inventory peak in the building season), mid-year net debt is also higher than year-end; the two effects roughly offset. The FY2026 10-K (~February 2027) re-base removes the overlap.
THE BETA IS USED AS PUBLISHED (1.448). Each 0.1 moves the value ~$4.10-4.50; the market price corresponds to ~1.42. The model is not making a strong valuation call either way at today's price.
THE COST OF DEBT RATING BAND IS NOT PRIMARY-SOURCED. The 10-K does not state BLDR's ratings; BB / Ba2 is taken from press reports of agency actions and priced at the FRED BB index yield (6.96%). A downgrade to BB- or a wider spread to ~7.5% takes ~$2.50/share off.
MULTI-FAMILY DATA IS DISPUTED. On the Q2 call the CFO said the published multi-family numbers 'do not make sense to us', so industry starts data may understate or overstate BLDR's multi-family exposure; it is ~10% of sales (Q2 2026 weighting) and the model does not split it out.

Why BLDR gets a range, not one number

At a recent price of $53.92, Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR) sits below every lens we ran: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $54.41 and $108.97 per share. For a cyclical we value through the cycle we publish a range only (peer multiples and our researched mid-cycle DCF): where in the cycle the business sits decides where in that range it lands, and a single figure would claim we know that precisely. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.

Read the full reasoning

The valuation discounts Builders FirstSource, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 9.4%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 80% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.

Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, BLDR's modeled DCF value ranges from about $28.80 to $109.15 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.

How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Builders FirstSource, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of BLDR's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.

Every input behind BLDR's DCF

Input	Value	Source
Base-year revenueBuilders FirstSource FY2025 10-K (accession 0001193125-26-054643, filed 2026-02-17) + SEC companyfacts: Net sales $15,190.6M (us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax), down 7.4% from $16,400.5M in FY2024 and 33% below the FY2022 peak of $22,726.4M. The 10-K blames 'decreased single-family housing starts and decreased multi-family activity' plus lumber 'commodity price deflation', partly offset by acquisitions ($1,123M spent on deals in 2025). CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 net sales $7,149.6M were 9.4% below H1 2025 ($7,891.6M); TTM to 2026-06-30 is $14,448.7M. The base is therefore NOT a trough - 2026 is lower again (see forecast).	$15,190,600,000	Builders FirstSource FY2025 10-K (accession 0001193125-26-054643, filed 2026-02-17) + SEC companyfacts: Net sales $15,190.6M (us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax), down 7.4% from $16,400.5M in FY2024 and 33% below the FY2022 peak of $22,726.4M. The 10-K blames 'decreased single-family housing starts and decreased multi-family activity' plus lumber 'commodity price deflation', partly offset by acquisitions ($1,123M spent on deals in 2025). CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 net sales $7,149.6M were 9.4% below H1 2025 ($7,891.6M); TTM to 2026-06-30 is $14,448.7M. The base is therefore NOT a trough - 2026 is lower again (see forecast).
Base EBIT marginBuilders FirstSource FY2025 10-K (accession 0001193125-26-054643, filed 2026-02-17) + SEC companyfacts: GAAP income from operations $786.3M / net sales $15,190.6M = 5.18% (us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss). It is AFTER $297.2M of acquired-intangible amortization (mostly the 2021 BMC merger; kept in EBIT - see da_pct_revenue), ~$53.5M of stock compensation and ~$100M+ of ERP 'technology implementation expense' that management excludes from Adjusted EBITDA. History on the same tag: 5.4% FY2019 and 6.4% FY2020 (legacy BLDR, before the BMC merger), 12.0% FY2021, 16.6% FY2022, 12.7% FY2023, 9.7% FY2024, 5.2% FY2025. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 GAAP operating income was $145.0M on $7,149.6M (2.0%), and Q2 2026 3.3% - the margin is still falling, gross margin down 260bp in Q2 to 28.1%.	5.2%	Builders FirstSource FY2025 10-K (accession 0001193125-26-054643, filed 2026-02-17) + SEC companyfacts: GAAP income from operations $786.3M / net sales $15,190.6M = 5.18% (us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss). It is AFTER $297.2M of acquired-intangible amortization (mostly the 2021 BMC merger; kept in EBIT - see da_pct_revenue), ~$53.5M of stock compensation and ~$100M+ of ERP 'technology implementation expense' that management excludes from Adjusted EBITDA. History on the same tag: 5.4% FY2019 and 6.4% FY2020 (legacy BLDR, before the BMC merger), 12.0% FY2021, 16.6% FY2022, 12.7% FY2023, 9.7% FY2024, 5.2% FY2025. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 GAAP operating income was $145.0M on $7,149.6M (2.0%), and Q2 2026 3.3% - the margin is still falling, gross margin down 260bp in Q2 to 28.1%.
Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast	-6% → 2% → 5% → 5% → 4%	ESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast
Risk-free rateUS 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. Shared by every model in this tracker. For a homebuilder supplier it bites twice: it sets the discount rate and it drives the ~6.7% mortgage rates that hold single-family starts down.	5.2%	US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. Shared by every model in this tracker. For a homebuilder supplier it bites twice: it sets the discount rate and it drives the ~6.7% mortgage rates that hold single-family starts down.
BetaYahoo Finance 5Y-monthly beta via yfinance, read 2026-10-06: Published 5Y-monthly beta 1.448, used AS IS - no normalization, the same policy as Masco (1.294) and CRH (1.191) in this tracker. Plausible for a lumber-exposed distributor of new-construction materials carrying 3.6x net leverage. Cost of equity 5.24% + 1.448 x 5% = 12.48%. Each 0.1 of beta moves the value ~$4.10-4.50/share (1.348 gives ~$58.91; 1.548 ~$50.27); today's price needs ~1.42.	1.45	Yahoo Finance 5Y-monthly beta via yfinance, read 2026-10-06: Published 5Y-monthly beta 1.448, used AS IS - no normalization, the same policy as Masco (1.294) and CRH (1.191) in this tracker. Plausible for a lumber-exposed distributor of new-construction materials carrying 3.6x net leverage. Cost of equity 5.24% + 1.448 x 5% = 12.48%. Each 0.1 of beta moves the value ~$4.10-4.50/share (1.348 gives ~$58.91; 1.548 ~$50.27); today's price needs ~1.42.
Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability. Applied to 2030 - a year modelled as mid-recovery, not peak - so it neither capitalizes a boom nor a trough. BLDR's own long-run record mixes acquisition-led growth (sales $7.3B FY2019 -> $15.2B FY2025, mostly the BMC merger) with sharp lumber and starts cycles; 2.5% assumes no further structural share gain. 3.0% adds ~$6.45/share; 2.0% takes ~$5.55 off.	2.5%	ESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability. Applied to 2030 - a year modelled as mid-recovery, not peak - so it neither capitalizes a boom nor a trough. BLDR's own long-run record mixes acquisition-led growth (sales $7.3B FY2019 -> $15.2B FY2025, mostly the BMC merger) with sharp lumber and starts cycles; 2.5% assumes no further structural share gain. 3.0% adds ~$6.45/share; 2.0% takes ~$5.55 off.
Diluted sharesBuilders FirstSource Q2 2026 10-Q (accession 0001193125-26-325451, filed 2026-07-30) Note 4 (EPS): Q2 2026 weighted-average diluted shares 107,564K. Because Q2 was a net loss, diluted equals basic: 1,265K antidilutive and contingent RSUs were excluded (in Q2 2025, dilutive awards added 274K). Including ~0.3M dilutive awards would take ~$0.15/share off - immaterial. 107,596,457 shares were outstanding on 2026-07-23. THE COUNT HAS STOPPED FALLING: BLDR retired ~50% of its shares since 2021 ($8.3B at an average $81.26), and bought 3.3M more in Q1 2026 at ~$92, but bought back only ~$3.5M in Q2 as leverage rose to 3.6x; $500M of authorization remains.	108M	Builders FirstSource Q2 2026 10-Q (accession 0001193125-26-325451, filed 2026-07-30) Note 4 (EPS): Q2 2026 weighted-average diluted shares 107,564K. Because Q2 was a net loss, diluted equals basic: 1,265K antidilutive and contingent RSUs were excluded (in Q2 2025, dilutive awards added 274K). Including ~0.3M dilutive awards would take ~$0.15/share off - immaterial. 107,596,457 shares were outstanding on 2026-07-23. THE COUNT HAS STOPPED FALLING: BLDR retired ~50% of its shares since 2021 ($8.3B at an average $81.26), and bought 3.3M more in Q1 2026 at ~$92, but bought back only ~$3.5M in Q2 as leverage rose to 3.6x; $500M of authorization remains.
Market priceBackup price feed · as of 2026-10-20 23:07 UTC	$53.92	Backup price feed · as of 2026-10-20 23:07 UTC

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What does Builders FirstSource, Inc. do?

What does it do?

Builders FirstSource, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides building materials for professional builders in new residential construction and repair, and remodeling in the United States. It offers manufactured products, such as factory-built substitutes for job-site framing, wood floor and roof trusses, wall panels, and engineered wood; Ready-Frame, a whole house framing solution; manufactured and semi-custom modular homes, and built in a temperature-controlled facility under its Pine Grove Homes and Pleasant Valley Homes brand names; manufactured housing plans including ranch, community, and single-section homes; manufacturing, assembly, and distribution of windows; and the assembly and distribution of interior and exterior door units. It operates in the Building Products & Equipment industry (Industrials sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 28,000 people.

How does it make money?

The business turns $15.2B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $3 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 3.3%), after a 29% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 0.7% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.

Is it financially healthy?

Financially it looks mixed: carries moderate debt (1.3× equity), comfortably covers its short-term bills (1.8× current ratio), and is currently profitable.

Who at BLDR filed insider trades?

Recent insider filings for Builders FirstSource, Inc.
Date	Insider	Relationship	What happened	Value	Filing
18 Oct 2026	Hiller Michael	COO-Designate	Grant / award	—	Form 4 for Hiller Michael (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
10 Sept 2026	Steinke Craig Arthur	Director	Grant / award	—	Form 4 for Steinke Craig Arthur (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
10 Sept 2026	OLEARY JAMES	Director	Grant / award	—	Form 4 for OLEARY JAMES (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
10 Sept 2026	Charles Dirkson R	Director	Grant / award	—	Form 4 for Charles Dirkson R (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
10 Sept 2026	Renz Maria	Director	Grant / award	—	Form 4 for Renz Maria (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
10 Sept 2026	LEVY PAUL S	Director	Grant / award	—	Form 4 for LEVY PAUL S (opens sec.gov in a new tab)

A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans

Common questions

What is BLDR's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR) between $54.41 and $108.97 per share, versus a market price of $53.92. For a cyclical we value through the cycle we publish a range only (peer multiples and our researched mid-cycle DCF): where in the cycle the business sits decides where in that range it lands, and a single figure would claim we know that precisely.
Is BLDR overvalued or undervalued?
At $53.92 the price sits below every lens we ran. We don't call BLDR overvalued or undervalued from a range. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for BLDR?
A WACC of 9.4% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Builders FirstSource stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair-value range for Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR) is $54.41 – $108.97 against a market price of $53.92. Priced below our range. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Builders FirstSource (BLDR) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair-value range for Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR) is $54.41 – $108.97, built on a 9.4% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Builders FirstSource stock?
no growth rate up to 300%/yr justifies the price under these economics This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $53.92. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Builders FirstSource (BLDR) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR): Hiller Michael, COO-Designate, grant / award on 2026-10-18. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.