Is DBX overvalued or undervalued?

At $35.72 the price sits inside our range of estimates. We don't call DBX overvalued or undervalued from a range. This is an educational estimate, not advice.

What discount rate is used for DBX?

A WACC of 8.4% and a terminal growth rate of 2.0%.

Is Dropbox stock undervalued?

TickerWorth's fair-value range for Dropbox, Inc. (DBX) is $25.21 – $84.28 against a market price of $35.72. Priced within our range. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.

Dropbox (DBX) DCF valuation and fair value

Our fair-value range for Dropbox, Inc. (DBX) is $25.21 – $84.28, built on a 8.4% discount rate (WACC) and 2.0% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.

What growth is priced into Dropbox stock?

Today's price implies revenue growth of 5.7% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 0.6% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $35.72. A model estimate, not investment advice.

Dropbox (DBX) insider trading

We have no recent SEC Form 4 insider filings on file for Dropbox, Inc. (DBX). Form 4 covers US-listed companies only.

DBX · Intrinsic value

Is Dropbox, Inc. (DBX) overvalued or undervalued?

Name: Dropbox, Inc. (DBX) DCF intrinsic value
Creator: TickerWorth

As of Oct 19, 2026, TickerWorth publishes a fair-value range of $25.21 – $84.28 for Dropbox, Inc. (DBX), against the delayed market price of $35.72: priced within our range. It is a range, not a single number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.

Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from a hand-researched model · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made

Open full DBX analysis

What is DBX worth?

Backup data source

This price comes from our backup market-data feed.

Fair-value range: $25.21 – $84.28; A range by design: peer multiples and our researched mid-cycle DCF.
Market price: $35.72
Gap to fair value: —
Verdict: Priced within our range

Price as of 19 Oct 2026, 14:39 UTC · Prices are delayed.We publish this company as a range by design, not because our valuation lenses disagree, and we do not collapse it to a single number. We do not call it over- or undervalued from a range.

Fair-value range against the delayed market price: Priced within our range.

Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 5.7% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 0.6% a year on average over the same horizon.

What is DBX's TickerWorth Score?

A64/100

Cheap against our estimate — but a weaker business

Compared with Technology companies in US

Its strongest point: trades below our estimate of what it's worth. Its weakest: balance sheet looks stretched.

Value · 78 of 100
Cheaper than 78% of Technology companies in US
Price vs worth · 100 of 100
Quality · 76 of 100
More profitable than 76% of Technology companies in US
Financial health · 17 of 100
Financially stronger than 17% of Technology companies in US
Growth · 24 of 100
Growing faster than 24% of Technology companies in US
Momentum · 82 of 100
Outperformed 82% of Technology companies in US over the past year

Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored 19 Oct 2026, 14:39 UTC

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Where the numbers come from

Hand-researched model

What the modeller flagged

RANGE ONLY: the site publishes this model as a range because Year 1 revenue growth is negative (-0.12%, management's guidance midpoint). That flag exists for cyclicals; here it fires because the company itself guides to a slight decline. The WACC/terminal-growth grid runs ~$15.90 to ~$46.10.
YEAR-1 FCF IS ~41% BELOW DROPBOX'S REPORTED FCF (~$554M modeled vs $930.8M FY2025) and ~48% below its FY2026 unlevered-FCF guide of at least $1.07B. It decomposes: start from FY2025 unlevered FCF $1,016M; less stock compensation $300.8M (expensed here, added back by Dropbox); less finance-lease equipment $147.3M (excluded from Dropbox's FCF); less ~$81M to normalize tax to 20% (cash taxes were $56.9M, sheltered by deferred tax assets); less $23.6M intangible amortization not added back; plus ~$50M of other items (chiefly the one-off $36M HQ lease-termination payment in 2025) = ~$514M for FY2025 on this model's rules. 2026's lighter finance-lease spend lifts Year 1 to ~$554M.
TWO JUDGEMENT CALLS EXPLAIN MOST OF THE GAP TO THE PRICE: relevering beta from 0.63 to 0.87 and a 2.0% (not 2.5%) terminal growth rate. Using BOTH the published beta and the house 2.5% gives ~$33.70, essentially today's price. They are stated reasons, not tuning, but a reader who rejects them should read this model as 'fairly priced', not 'overvalued'.
TERMINAL VALUE IS ~73% OF ENTERPRISE VALUE (implied exit ~10.5x EBITDA). The five explicit years are only about a quarter of the answer.
SBC treatment: SBC stays expensed inside GAAP EBIT (~12% of revenue, ~$300M a year) and dilution is captured through the diluted share count. Adding it back - the company's non-GAAP view - would roughly raise the value to ~$41/share. Dropbox has spent more than its SBC on buybacks every year, so the share count still falls; the cost is real either way.
AI IS A TWO-SIDED, UNMODELED RISK. Dash (AI search across a user's apps) is Dropbox's growth bet and is now embedded in the core product; general-purpose AI assistants and bundled storage from Microsoft/Google compete for the same seats. A DCF can't settle which wins; the revenue path assumes neither a breakout nor a collapse.
Floating-rate debt: a 100bp move in SOFR changes Dropbox's interest expense by ~$27M a year (10-Q). That sits below EBIT and does not change this enterprise value, but it does change how much cash is left for buybacks.

Why DBX gets a range, not one number

At a recent price of $35.72, Dropbox, Inc. (DBX) sits inside our range of estimates: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $25.21 and $84.28 per share. For a cyclical we value through the cycle we publish a range only (peer multiples and our researched mid-cycle DCF): where in the cycle the business sits decides where in that range it lands, and a single figure would claim we know that precisely. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.

Read the full reasoning

The valuation discounts Dropbox, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 8.4%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.0%. About 73% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.

Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 5.7% annual revenue growth for DBX. Our base case instead compounds to about 0.6% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in materially faster growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.

Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, DBX's modeled DCF value ranges from about $15.93 to $46.15 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.

How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Dropbox, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of DBX's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.

Every input behind DBX's DCF

Input	Value	Source
Base-year revenueDropbox FY2025 10-K (accession 0001467623-26-000008, filed 2026-02-20): us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, FY2025 = $2,521.0M, -1.1% on FY2024 $2,548.2M (+0.2% excluding FormSwift, the e-signature/forms business Dropbox is winding down by end-2026; -1.2% in constant currency). Calendar fiscal year. Three-year shape: $2,501.6M (FY2023) -> $2,548.2M -> $2,521.0M, i.e. flat. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 revenue $1,261.0M, +0.85% on H1 2025 $1,250.4M; TTM to 2026-06-30 $2,531.6M. Q2 2026 was +0.9% reported but only +0.1% in constant currency excluding FormSwift - the reported growth is mostly a weaker dollar.	$2,521,000,000	Dropbox FY2025 10-K (accession 0001467623-26-000008, filed 2026-02-20): us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, FY2025 = $2,521.0M, -1.1% on FY2024 $2,548.2M (+0.2% excluding FormSwift, the e-signature/forms business Dropbox is winding down by end-2026; -1.2% in constant currency). Calendar fiscal year. Three-year shape: $2,501.6M (FY2023) -> $2,548.2M -> $2,521.0M, i.e. flat. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 revenue $1,261.0M, +0.85% on H1 2025 $1,250.4M; TTM to 2026-06-30 $2,531.6M. Q2 2026 was +0.9% reported but only +0.1% in constant currency excluding FormSwift - the reported growth is mostly a weaker dollar.
Base EBIT marginDropbox Q4/FY2025 results release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001467623-26-000003, filed 2026-02-19); FY2025 10-K (accession 0001467623-26-000008): GAAP income from operations $689.1M / revenue $2,521.0M = 27.33% (us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss). This is AFTER $300.8M of stock-based compensation (11.9% of revenue), $23.6M of acquired-intangible amortization, $8.0M of acquisition-related costs and $3.7M of workforce-reduction cost, and includes a $1.3M real-estate gain. Company non-GAAP operating margin was 40.6%; the 13-point gap is almost entirely SBC. FY2024's 19.1% GAAP margin was depressed by $47.2M of severance and ~$346.5M of SBC, which is why FY2025 is the cleaner base. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 GAAP operating income $337.6M / $1,261.0M = 26.8% (H1 2025: 28.2%), with SBC 11.8% of revenue.	27.3%	Dropbox Q4/FY2025 results release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001467623-26-000003, filed 2026-02-19); FY2025 10-K (accession 0001467623-26-000008): GAAP income from operations $689.1M / revenue $2,521.0M = 27.33% (us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss). This is AFTER $300.8M of stock-based compensation (11.9% of revenue), $23.6M of acquired-intangible amortization, $8.0M of acquisition-related costs and $3.7M of workforce-reduction cost, and includes a $1.3M real-estate gain. Company non-GAAP operating margin was 40.6%; the 13-point gap is almost entirely SBC. FY2024's 19.1% GAAP margin was depressed by $47.2M of severance and ~$346.5M of SBC, which is why FY2025 is the cleaner base. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 GAAP operating income $337.6M / $1,261.0M = 26.8% (H1 2025: 28.2%), with SBC 11.8% of revenue.
Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast	-0% → 0% → 0% → 1% → 2%	ESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast
Risk-free rateUS 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation; program-wide input shared by every researched model.	5.2%	US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation; program-wide input shared by every researched model.
BetaESTIMATEAssumption — relevered estimate (published yfinance 5Y-monthly beta 0.631): RELEVERED UP from the published 0.631 to 0.87 - CONSERVATIVE (raises WACC, lowers value). Reason, from the filings: for most of the 60-month regression window Dropbox carried roughly zero net debt (~$1.39B of 0% convertibles against a similar cash pile), so 0.63 is close to an UNLEVERED beta. Since December 2024 it has drawn a $2.7B secured term loan to fund buybacks; at 2026-06-30 it owed $3,654M (term loan $2,674.8M + 2028 converts $693.3M + finance leases $285.9M) against a ~$7,757M market cap, D/E = 0.47. Relevering: 0.631 x (1 + (1 - 20%) x 0.47) = 0.87. A monthly regression has barely seen the new capital structure. At the published 0.631 the model gives ~$30.45 (WACC 7.63%); at 1.0 it gives ~$22.90. THIS IS ONE OF THE TWO CALLS THAT EXPLAIN MOST OF THE GAP TO THE PRICE (see caveats).	0.87	ESTIMATEAssumption — relevered estimate (published yfinance 5Y-monthly beta 0.631): RELEVERED UP from the published 0.631 to 0.87 - CONSERVATIVE (raises WACC, lowers value). Reason, from the filings: for most of the 60-month regression window Dropbox carried roughly zero net debt (~$1.39B of 0% convertibles against a similar cash pile), so 0.63 is close to an UNLEVERED beta. Since December 2024 it has drawn a $2.7B secured term loan to fund buybacks; at 2026-06-30 it owed $3,654M (term loan $2,674.8M + 2028 converts $693.3M + finance leases $285.9M) against a ~$7,757M market cap, D/E = 0.47. Relevering: 0.631 x (1 + (1 - 20%) x 0.47) = 0.87. A monthly regression has barely seen the new capital structure. At the published 0.631 the model gives ~$30.45 (WACC 7.63%); at 1.0 it gives ~$22.90. THIS IS ONE OF THE TWO CALLS THAT EXPLAIN MOST OF THE GAP TO THE PRICE (see caveats).
Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — estimate, departing from the 2.5% house default (evidence: FY2023-FY2026 revenue and ARR in the Q4 2025 and Q2 2026 releases): 2.0%, BELOW THE 2.5% HOUSE DEFAULT, for a stated reason: Dropbox's revenue has been flat for three years ($2,501.6M FY2023 -> $2,518M guided FY2026), constant-currency revenue ex-FormSwift grew 0.1% in Q2 2026, and paying users have hovered around 18.1-18.2M since 2024. A perpetuity at nominal GDP (2.5%) would assume a growth rate this business has not produced since 2023; 2.0% is roughly price increases on a flat seat base. 2.5% adds ~$2.40/share (to ~$27.60). Well below the 8.44% WACC.	2.0%	ESTIMATEAssumption — estimate, departing from the 2.5% house default (evidence: FY2023-FY2026 revenue and ARR in the Q4 2025 and Q2 2026 releases): 2.0%, BELOW THE 2.5% HOUSE DEFAULT, for a stated reason: Dropbox's revenue has been flat for three years ($2,501.6M FY2023 -> $2,518M guided FY2026), constant-currency revenue ex-FormSwift grew 0.1% in Q2 2026, and paying users have hovered around 18.1-18.2M since 2024. A perpetuity at nominal GDP (2.5%) would assume a growth rate this business has not produced since 2023; 2.0% is roughly price increases on a flat seat base. 2.5% adds ~$2.40/share (to ~$27.60). Well below the 8.44% WACC.
Diluted sharesDropbox Q2 2026 results release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001467623-26-000045, filed 2026-08-06): Q2 2026 weighted-average diluted shares 226.8M (Q2 2025: 276.7M; FY2025: 272.8M) - an 18% YoY reduction from buybacks ($697.1M in H1 2026, $1,713.9M in FY2025). Q3 2026 guided at 223-228M and FY2026 at 226-231M. CONSERVATIVE in a known direction: 225.7M were outstanding on 2026-08-03 and that figure includes 8.27M unvested co-founder RSAs tied to stock-price goals; excluding them (217.4M) adds ~$1.10/share. $1.4B of buyback authorization remained at 2026-06-30 after a new $900M program (2026-06-01). The automatic model uses FY2025's 272.8M, ~20% too many shares.	227M	Dropbox Q2 2026 results release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001467623-26-000045, filed 2026-08-06): Q2 2026 weighted-average diluted shares 226.8M (Q2 2025: 276.7M; FY2025: 272.8M) - an 18% YoY reduction from buybacks ($697.1M in H1 2026, $1,713.9M in FY2025). Q3 2026 guided at 223-228M and FY2026 at 226-231M. CONSERVATIVE in a known direction: 225.7M were outstanding on 2026-08-03 and that figure includes 8.27M unvested co-founder RSAs tied to stock-price goals; excluding them (217.4M) adds ~$1.10/share. $1.4B of buyback authorization remained at 2026-06-30 after a new $900M program (2026-06-01). The automatic model uses FY2025's 272.8M, ~20% too many shares.
Market priceBackup price feed · as of 2026-10-19 14:39 UTC	$35.72	Backup price feed · as of 2026-10-19 14:39 UTC

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What does Dropbox, Inc. do?

What does it do?

Dropbox, Inc. provides a content collaboration platform in the United States and internationally. It operates in the Software - Infrastructure industry (Technology sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 2,113 people.

How does it make money?

The business turns $2.5B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $26 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 26.1%), after a 80% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 17.5% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.

Is it financially healthy?

Financially it looks stretched: can just cover its short-term bills (1.1× current ratio), and is currently profitable.

DBX insider trading

We have no recent SEC Form 4 insider filings on file for Dropbox, Inc.. Form 4 covers US-listed companies only.

Common questions

What is DBX's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Dropbox, Inc. (DBX) between $25.21 and $84.28 per share, versus a market price of $35.72. For a cyclical we value through the cycle we publish a range only (peer multiples and our researched mid-cycle DCF): where in the cycle the business sits decides where in that range it lands, and a single figure would claim we know that precisely.
Is DBX overvalued or undervalued?
At $35.72 the price sits inside our range of estimates. We don't call DBX overvalued or undervalued from a range. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for DBX?
A WACC of 8.4% and a terminal growth rate of 2.0%.
Is Dropbox stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair-value range for Dropbox, Inc. (DBX) is $25.21 – $84.28 against a market price of $35.72. Priced within our range. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Dropbox (DBX) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair-value range for Dropbox, Inc. (DBX) is $25.21 – $84.28, built on a 8.4% discount rate (WACC) and 2.0% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Dropbox stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 5.7% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 0.6% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $35.72. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Dropbox (DBX) insider trading
We have no recent SEC Form 4 insider filings on file for Dropbox, Inc. (DBX). Form 4 covers US-listed companies only.