What is FDX's intrinsic value?

TickerWorth's valuation lenses put FedEx Corporation (FDX) between $151.85 and $843.29 per share, versus a market price of $293.32. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value, so we publish the range.

Is FDX overvalued or undervalued?

At $293.32 the price sits inside a range too wide to call either way. We don't call FDX overvalued or undervalued from a range this wide. This is an educational estimate, not advice.

What discount rate is used for FDX?

A WACC of 10.3% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.

Is FedEx stock undervalued?

TickerWorth's fair-value range for FedEx Corporation (FDX) is $151.85 – $843.29 against a market price of $293.33. Too wide to call. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.

FedEx (FDX) DCF valuation and fair value

Our fair-value range for FedEx Corporation (FDX) is $151.85 – $843.29, built on a 10.3% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.

What growth is priced into FedEx stock?

Today's price implies revenue growth of 9.0% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 4.0% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $293.33. A model estimate, not investment advice.

FedEx (FDX) insider trading

The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for FedEx Corporation (FDX): Ramo Joshua Cooper, Director, option exercise on 2026-09-24. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.

FDX · Intrinsic value

Is FedEx Corporation (FDX) overvalued or undervalued?

Name: FedEx Corporation (FDX) DCF intrinsic value
Creator: TickerWorth

As of Oct 19, 2026, TickerWorth's valuation lenses put FedEx Corporation (FDX) at $151.85 – $843.29, too broad a range to say where the delayed market price of $293.33 sits in it, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.

Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from a hand-researched model · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made

Open full FDX analysis

What is FDX worth?

Backup data source

This price comes from our backup market-data feed.

Fair-value range: $151.85 – $843.29
Market price: $293.33
Gap to fair value: —
Verdict: Too wide to call

Price as of 19 Oct 2026, 13:54 UTC · Prices are delayed.Our valuation lenses disagree too widely on this company for us to publish a single number, so we publish the range instead. We do not call it over- or undervalued from a spread this wide.

Fair-value range against the delayed market price: Too wide to call.

Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 9.0% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 4.0% a year on average over the same horizon.

What is FDX's TickerWorth Score?

B60/100

Cheap against our estimate — but a weaker business

Compared with Industrials companies in US

Its strongest point: looks cheap on the numbers. Its weakest: growth is slow or negative.

Value · 88 of 100
Cheaper than 88% of Industrials companies in US
Price vs worth · 87 of 100
Quality · 38 of 100
More profitable than 38% of Industrials companies in US
Financial health · 42 of 100
Financially stronger than 42% of Industrials companies in US
Growth · 27 of 100
Growing faster than 27% of Industrials companies in US
Momentum · 74 of 100
Outperformed 74% of Industrials companies in US over the past year

Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored 19 Oct 2026, 13:54 UTC

Get the Undervalued Company of the Week.

Where the numbers come from

Hand-researched model

What the modeller flagged

THE BASE YEAR IS A RECAST, NOT A 10-K. CY2025 continuing operations come from FedEx's unaudited supplemental recast (8-K, 2026-07-21). It is derived from audited statements and is management's own guidance baseline, but the first audited ex-Freight year arrives with the 10-KT for the transition period.
NET DEBT IS PRO FORMA AND PRE-DATES FOUR MONTHS OF CASH FLOW. Built from FedEx's 2026-05-31 'as adjusted' capitalization (post-spin, post-tender). Operating cash flow, the $292M July dividend and pension contributions since then are not in it; the Q3 2026 10-Q will replace it. Each $1B of net debt is ~$4.15/share.
TERMINAL VALUE IS ~72% OF ENTERPRISE VALUE, and the implied exit multiple is ~6.2x final-year EBITDA — modest for a parcel network, consistent with a 10.3% WACC.
BETA IS THE LEVER. The published 1.33 is mostly pre-spin history. Beta 1.0 gives ~$284/share; the price needs ~0.97 (WACC ~8.9%) with everything else unchanged.
MARGIN PATH SITS BELOW MANAGEMENT'S TARGET: 7.1% in 2029 vs the '~8%' GAAP target. Management's path gives ~$258/share. The model leans on FedEx's record (2025's 10% target, 7.0% delivered) and on a pilot contract ratified after the targets were set.
YEAR-1 GROWTH IS FUEL-INFLATED. Management's ~11% for CY2026 includes fuel surcharges after a fuel spike (Q4 FY2026 fuel expense +66%). Surcharges pass through at roughly zero margin, so the margin path, not revenue, carries the value.
PENSION — NETTED, NOT IGNORED. At 2026-05-31: U.S. qualified plans +$1,479M overfunded (PBO $26,974M vs assets $28,453M); nonqualified -$88M; international -$373M; retiree healthcare -$1,200M; net -$182M, added to net debt. The U.S. surplus is not 'trapped' the way IBM's is treated: FedEx holds a >$3.0B funding credit balance and can skip required contributions 'for several years', so the surplus has real value through avoided contributions. The CY2026 $475M contribution is voluntary. Service cost stays inside EBIT; the $722M of below-the-line retirement income (incl. a $418M MTM gain) is excluded. An 'immaterial' slice of the plans moved to Freight at the spin.
NOT TREATED AS DEBT: self-insurance accruals ($6.4B at 2026-05-31, consolidated incl. Freight) — claims reserves for accidents and workers' comp that will be paid in cash. Including them would cut value by up to ~$20/share; standard practice (and this tracker) treats them as operating.
SBC ($177M in FY2026, ~0.2% of revenue) stays expensed inside GAAP EBIT; no add-back.

Why FDX gets a range, not one number

At a recent price of $293.32, FedEx Corporation (FDX) sits inside a range too wide to call either way: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $151.85 and $843.29 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.

Read the full reasoning

The valuation discounts FedEx Corporation's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 10.3%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 72% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.

Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 9.0% annual revenue growth for FDX. Our base case instead compounds to about 4.0% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in materially faster growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.

Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, FDX's modeled DCF value ranges from about $174.16 to $343.56 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.

How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what FedEx Corporation would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of FDX's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.

Every input behind FDX's DCF

Input	Value	Source
Base-year revenueFedEx 8-K Ex-99.1 'Supplemental historical financial information' (accession 0001048911-26-000108, filed 2026-07-21) — calendar-year recast, FedEx Freight as discontinued operations: WHY THIS IS THE BASE AND NOT THE FY2026 10-K. FedEx spun off FedEx Freight on 2026-06-01 (80.1% distributed, one FDXF share per two FDX shares) and moved its fiscal year from May 31 to December 31 on the same day. The FY2026 10-K (year to 2026-05-31, revenue $94,720M) still consolidates Freight ($8,795M of revenue), which FDX holders no longer own except through the retained 19.9% stake valued separately in net debt. FedEx published this recast for exactly this purpose: calendar 2025 continuing operations, Freight as discontinued — Express U.S. Domestic $54,401M + Express International $25,337M + Corporate/other $2,725M = $82,463M (+4.2% on CY2024's $79,130M). It is also the stated baseline of management's CY2026 outlook (+~11% revenue), so the Year-1 guidance applies to this exact number. CAVEAT: the recast is unaudited supplemental information derived from audited statements, not a 10-K; the first audited ex-Freight annual figures arrive with the 10-KT for the June-December 2026 transition period. CROSS-CHECK: FY2026 Federal Express segment revenue was $82,273M (June 2025-May 2026), consistent with a ~$82-83B continuing business.	$82,463,000,000	FedEx 8-K Ex-99.1 'Supplemental historical financial information' (accession 0001048911-26-000108, filed 2026-07-21) — calendar-year recast, FedEx Freight as discontinued operations: WHY THIS IS THE BASE AND NOT THE FY2026 10-K. FedEx spun off FedEx Freight on 2026-06-01 (80.1% distributed, one FDXF share per two FDX shares) and moved its fiscal year from May 31 to December 31 on the same day. The FY2026 10-K (year to 2026-05-31, revenue $94,720M) still consolidates Freight ($8,795M of revenue), which FDX holders no longer own except through the retained 19.9% stake valued separately in net debt. FedEx published this recast for exactly this purpose: calendar 2025 continuing operations, Freight as discontinued — Express U.S. Domestic $54,401M + Express International $25,337M + Corporate/other $2,725M = $82,463M (+4.2% on CY2024's $79,130M). It is also the stated baseline of management's CY2026 outlook (+~11% revenue), so the Year-1 guidance applies to this exact number. CAVEAT: the recast is unaudited supplemental information derived from audited statements, not a 10-K; the first audited ex-Freight annual figures arrive with the 10-KT for the June-December 2026 transition period. CROSS-CHECK: FY2026 Federal Express segment revenue was $82,273M (June 2025-May 2026), consistent with a ~$82-83B continuing business.
Base EBIT marginFedEx 8-K Ex-99.1 'Supplemental historical financial information' (accession 0001048911-26-000108, filed 2026-07-21) — calendar-year recast, FedEx Freight as discontinued operations: GAAP operating income from continuing operations $4,554M / $82,463M = 5.52%. GAAP, so it INCLUDES $345M of business optimization costs, $21M impairment and $14M separation costs; on FedEx's own adjusted basis (adding those plus the $76M legal item listed in the CY2025 EPS reconciliation in the 2026-06-23 release) the margin is ~6.1%. EXCLUDES the $722M of 'other retirement plans income', which sits below operating income: $418M of it is the non-cash pension mark-to-market gain and the remainder is non-service pension income — neither is operating cash. NB: continuing operations carry ALL shared overhead previously allocated to Freight (the recast says these 'stranded costs' stay with FedEx until transition-services income and cuts offset them), so this base is, if anything, conservative. Quarterly shape is strongly peak-weighted: Q4 2025 margin 8.3% vs 4.0% in Q1.	5.5%	FedEx 8-K Ex-99.1 'Supplemental historical financial information' (accession 0001048911-26-000108, filed 2026-07-21) — calendar-year recast, FedEx Freight as discontinued operations: GAAP operating income from continuing operations $4,554M / $82,463M = 5.52%. GAAP, so it INCLUDES $345M of business optimization costs, $21M impairment and $14M separation costs; on FedEx's own adjusted basis (adding those plus the $76M legal item listed in the CY2025 EPS reconciliation in the 2026-06-23 release) the margin is ~6.1%. EXCLUDES the $722M of 'other retirement plans income', which sits below operating income: $418M of it is the non-cash pension mark-to-market gain and the remainder is non-service pension income — neither is operating cash. NB: continuing operations carry ALL shared overhead previously allocated to Freight (the recast says these 'stranded costs' stay with FedEx until transition-services income and cuts offset them), so this base is, if anything, conservative. Quarterly shape is strongly peak-weighted: Q4 2025 margin 8.3% vs 4.0% in Q1.
Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast	11% → 2% → 2% → 2% → 2%	ESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast
Risk-free rateUS 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation; program-wide rate shared by every researched model.	5.2%	US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation; program-wide rate shared by every researched model.
Betayfinance 5Y-monthly beta: Published beta 1.328, used as-is (rounded). Known contamination: ~56 of the ~60 monthly observations are pre-spin, when FDX included the LTL business, so the figure describes the old FedEx. Direction unknown, so not normalized. It is HIGH next to UPS's published 1.05, and it is the single biggest lever: beta 1.1 gives ~$266/share, 1.0 gives ~$284, and the price needs ~0.97 under every other input here.	1.33	yfinance 5Y-monthly beta: Published beta 1.328, used as-is (rounded). Known contamination: ~56 of the ~60 monthly observations are pre-spin, when FDX included the LTL business, so the figure describes the old FedEx. Direction unknown, so not normalized. It is HIGH next to UPS's published 1.05, and it is the single biggest lever: beta 1.1 gives ~$266/share, 1.0 gives ~$284, and the price needs ~0.97 under every other input here.
Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (about long-run nominal GDP). Reasonable for a mature parcel network whose volume tracks industrial production and e-commerce; 2.0% takes ~$12/share off. Must stay below WACC of ~10.26%.	2.5%	ESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (about long-run nominal GDP). Reasonable for a mature parcel network whose volume tracks industrial production and e-commerce; 2.0% takes ~$12/share off. Must stay below WACC of ~10.26%.
Diluted sharesFedEx Q4 FY2026 earnings release + CY2026 outlook, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001048911-26-000050, filed 2026-06-23): Q4 FY2026 (Mar-May 2026) weighted-average diluted shares, 241M (FY2026: 239M) — the latest quarterly diluted count; FedEx reports it in whole millions. It PREDATES the June buybacks ($0.3B open market + a $1.0B ASR completing by end-September), and is deliberately paired with the pre-buyback May-31 cash in net debt so the two stay consistent. For reference, shares outstanding were 236,581,188 on 2026-07-16 (10-K cover). The spin did not change the FDX share count — it handed out FDXF shares.	241M	FedEx Q4 FY2026 earnings release + CY2026 outlook, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001048911-26-000050, filed 2026-06-23): Q4 FY2026 (Mar-May 2026) weighted-average diluted shares, 241M (FY2026: 239M) — the latest quarterly diluted count; FedEx reports it in whole millions. It PREDATES the June buybacks ($0.3B open market + a $1.0B ASR completing by end-September), and is deliberately paired with the pre-buyback May-31 cash in net debt so the two stay consistent. For reference, shares outstanding were 236,581,188 on 2026-07-16 (10-K cover). The spin did not change the FDX share count — it handed out FDXF shares.
Market priceBackup price feed · as of 2026-10-19 13:54 UTC	$293.32	Backup price feed · as of 2026-10-19 13:54 UTC

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What does FedEx Corporation do?

What does it do?

FedEx Corporation operates in integrated freight and logistics, providing transportation, e-commerce, and business services domestically and internationally through two main segments: Express U.S. Domestic and Express International. The company also offers digital solutions, printing, shipping management, and related services.

How does it make money?

FedEx generates revenue primarily through its transportation and logistics operations, reporting total revenue of $94.72 billion. The company operates with a gross margin of 27.3%, an operating margin of 11.1%, and a net margin of 4.7%.

Is it financially healthy?

FedEx shows mixed financial health: it has a current ratio of 1.475, indicating it can cover short-term obligations, but carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.36, meaning it has $1.36 in debt for every dollar of equity. This indicates moderate leverage.

Who at FDX filed insider trades?

Recent insider filings for FedEx Corporation
Date	Insider	Relationship	What happened	Value	Filing
24 Sept 2026	Ramo Joshua Cooper	Director	Option exercise	$695,039.70	Form 4 for Ramo Joshua Cooper (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
24 Sept 2026	Ramo Joshua Cooper	Director	Shares withheld (tax)	$695,246.58	Form 4 for Ramo Joshua Cooper (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
28 Aug 2026	Ellison Marvin R	Director	Option exercise	$695,039.70	Form 4 for Ellison Marvin R (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
28 Aug 2026	Ellison Marvin R	Director	Shares withheld (tax)	$695,040.17	Form 4 for Ellison Marvin R (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
17 Aug 2026	Talwar Vishal	EVP CDIO & PRESIDENT FDW	Grant / award	—	Form 4 for Talwar Vishal (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
7 Aug 2026	Smith Richard W	Director, COO INTL - CEO Airline FEC	Other acquisition/disposition	—	Form 4 for Smith Richard W (opens sec.gov in a new tab)

A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans

Common questions

What is FDX's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's valuation lenses put FedEx Corporation (FDX) between $151.85 and $843.29 per share, versus a market price of $293.32. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value, so we publish the range.
Is FDX overvalued or undervalued?
At $293.32 the price sits inside a range too wide to call either way. We don't call FDX overvalued or undervalued from a range this wide. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for FDX?
A WACC of 10.3% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is FedEx stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair-value range for FedEx Corporation (FDX) is $151.85 – $843.29 against a market price of $293.33. Too wide to call. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
FedEx (FDX) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair-value range for FedEx Corporation (FDX) is $151.85 – $843.29, built on a 10.3% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into FedEx stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 9.0% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 4.0% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $293.33. A model estimate, not investment advice.
FedEx (FDX) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for FedEx Corporation (FDX): Ramo Joshua Cooper, Director, option exercise on 2026-09-24. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.