What is KALU's intrinsic value?

TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) between $60.39 and $348.16 per share, versus a market price of $147.25. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value, so we publish the range.

Is KALU overvalued or undervalued?

At $147.25 the price sits inside a range too wide to call either way. We don't call KALU overvalued or undervalued from a range this wide. This is an educational estimate, not advice.

What discount rate is used for KALU?

A WACC of 10.8% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.

Is Kaiser Aluminum stock undervalued?

TickerWorth's fair-value range for Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) is $60.39 – $348.16 against a market price of $147.25. Too wide to call. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.

Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) DCF valuation and fair value

Our fair-value range for Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) is $60.39 – $348.16, built on a 10.8% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.

What growth is priced into Kaiser Aluminum stock?

no growth rate up to 300%/yr justifies the price under these economics This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $147.25. A model estimate, not investment advice.

Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) insider trading

We have no recent SEC Form 4 insider filings on file for Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU). Form 4 covers US-listed companies only.

KALU · Intrinsic value

Is Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) overvalued or undervalued?

Name: Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) DCF intrinsic value
Creator: TickerWorth

As of Oct 19, 2026, TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) at $60.39 – $348.16, too broad a range to say where the delayed market price of $147.25 sits in it, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.

Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from a hand-researched model · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made

Open full KALU analysis

What is KALU worth?

Backup data source

This price comes from our backup market-data feed.

Fair-value range: $60.39 – $348.16
Market price: $147.25
Gap to fair value: —
Verdict: Too wide to call

Price as of 19 Oct 2026, 13:16 UTC · Prices are delayed.Our valuation lenses disagree too widely on this company for us to publish a single number, so we publish the range instead. We do not call it over- or undervalued from a spread this wide.

Fair-value range against the delayed market price: Too wide to call.

Reverse DCF: no growth rate up to 300%/yr justifies the price under these economics

What is KALU's TickerWorth Score?

C54/100

Middle of the pack — real strengths and real weaknesses

Compared with Basic Materials companies in US

Its strongest point: looks cheap on the numbers. Its weakest: balance sheet looks stretched.

Value · 66 of 100
Cheaper than 66% of Basic Materials companies in US
Price vs worth · 59 of 100
Quality · 41 of 100
More profitable than 41% of Basic Materials companies in US
Financial health · 34 of 100
Financially stronger than 34% of Basic Materials companies in US
Growth · 58 of 100
Growing faster than 58% of Basic Materials companies in US
Momentum · 69 of 100
Outperformed 69% of Basic Materials companies in US over the past year

Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored 19 Oct 2026, 13:16 UTC

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Where the numbers come from

Hand-researched model

What the modeller flagged

THE MARGIN PATH IS THE WHOLE VALUATION, AND IT IS THE GENEROUS INPUT. Years 2-5 assume EBITDA of 21-22% of conversion revenue — the guided H2 2026 run-rate with no metal help. On the filings available here it has not done so before: ex-metal-lag it was 13.5% in FY2024 and 14.9% in FY2025. If the step-up proves to be partly tariff-era scrap economics rather than Warrick/Trentwood mix, the value falls well below this model.
RANGE FLAG: NOT TRIGGERED, NARROWLY. The final-year EBIT margin (5.98%) is 0.80x the Year-1 peak (7.45%); the cyclical predicate fires below 0.75x. A further decline in the metal price would also produce a negative-revenue year on paper and trigger it, even though EBIT dollars would barely move. Kaiser is a cyclical business; this model simply does not forecast the aluminum cycle.
METAL HELD FLAT IS A CHOICE. If the Midwest Transaction Price falls, net sales fall but EBIT dollars are largely unaffected beyond a temporary negative metal lag, and working capital RELEASES cash (inventory re-prices lower). If it rises, the reverse: a lag gain and a working-capital drag.
BASE-YEAR FCF IS NEGATIVE (-$25.5M) because FY2025 funded $168M of metal-driven working capital. The model's Year-1 FCF (~$66M) is not comparable to it; the TTM figure through June 2026 is $87.0M.
TERMINAL VALUE IS ~72% OF ENTERPRISE VALUE, just under the 75% danger line; the implied terminal multiple is ~5.6x EBITDA — low for a specialty fabricator, and a direct consequence of the 10.8% WACC.
POST-RETIREMENT DEFICIT NOT IN NET DEBT: OPEB (unfunded retiree medical) -$70.0M, pension plans -$5.8M, Salaried VEBA +$9.7M at FY2025 year-end = net -$66.1M (~$3.90/share). Excluded for consistency with the house net-debt definition; including it would lower the value by ~$3.90/share. Service cost already runs through EBIT.
SBC of $18.5M (FY2025) is expensed inside GAAP operating income; dilution is carried by the two-class diluted share count (16.918M vs 16.349M outstanding).
Q3 2026 METAL LAG RISK: aluminum fell ~7% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 (COMEX ALI=F average) after the June peak. Management's H2 guide assumes a NEUTRAL lag; a falling price means an unfavorable one. Year 1 uses the guidance midpoint and does not haircut for this.

Why KALU gets a range, not one number

At a recent price of $147.25, Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) sits inside a range too wide to call either way: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $60.39 and $348.16 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.

Read the full reasoning

The valuation discounts Kaiser Aluminum Corporation's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 10.8%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 72% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.

Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, KALU's modeled DCF value ranges from about $34.02 to $109.16 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.

How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Kaiser Aluminum Corporation would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of KALU's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.

Every input behind KALU's DCF

Input	Value	Source
Base-year revenueKaiser Aluminum FY2025 10-K (accession 0001193125-26-059575, filed 2026-02-19): us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, FY2025 = $3,373.0M, +11.5% on FY2024's $3,024.0M. READ THIS BEFORE ANY GROWTH NUMBER: net sales here INCLUDE the aluminum Kaiser buys and passes straight through to customers. The FY2025 release splits it: $1,919.8M of 'Hedged Cost of Alloyed Metal' (aluminum at the Midwest Transaction Price = LME + Midwest Premium, plus alloys) and $1,453.2M of 'Conversion Revenue' — what Kaiser actually earns for rolling, extruding and finishing. FY2025's +11.5% was ALL metal: shipments FELL 5% (1,108.2M lbs vs 1,172.3M) and conversion revenue was flat ($1,453.2M vs $1,456.2M); hedged metal cost per lb rose 29%. CROSS-CHECK, H1 2026 (Q2 10-Q, accession 0001193125-26-314580): net sales $2,363.4M, +48% YoY, on shipments +6% and conversion revenue +14% — the rest is metal ($1.10/lb higher realized price, per the 10-Q).	$3,373,000,000	Kaiser Aluminum FY2025 10-K (accession 0001193125-26-059575, filed 2026-02-19): us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, FY2025 = $3,373.0M, +11.5% on FY2024's $3,024.0M. READ THIS BEFORE ANY GROWTH NUMBER: net sales here INCLUDE the aluminum Kaiser buys and passes straight through to customers. The FY2025 release splits it: $1,919.8M of 'Hedged Cost of Alloyed Metal' (aluminum at the Midwest Transaction Price = LME + Midwest Premium, plus alloys) and $1,453.2M of 'Conversion Revenue' — what Kaiser actually earns for rolling, extruding and finishing. FY2025's +11.5% was ALL metal: shipments FELL 5% (1,108.2M lbs vs 1,172.3M) and conversion revenue was flat ($1,453.2M vs $1,456.2M); hedged metal cost per lb rose 29%. CROSS-CHECK, H1 2026 (Q2 10-Q, accession 0001193125-26-314580): net sales $2,363.4M, +48% YoY, on shipments +6% and conversion revenue +14% — the rest is metal ($1.10/lb higher realized price, per the 10-Q).
Base EBIT marginKaiser Aluminum FY2025 10-K (accession 0001193125-26-059575, filed 2026-02-19): us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss FY2025 $188.8M / net sales $3,373.0M = 5.60%. Two things make this figure flattering and one makes it look worse than it is. FLATTERING: FY2025 adjusted EBITDA of $310M 'includes favorable metal price lag of approximately $93.0 million' (FY2025 release, 8-K Ex-99.1 filed 2026-02-18) — a timing gain from rising aluminum prices, not a repeatable earning; strip it and operating income is ~$96M (2.8% of net sales). LOOKS WORSE: the denominator is inflated by pass-through metal; on conversion revenue the same EBIT is 13.0%. CROSS-CHECK H1 2026: operating income $231.5M on $2,363.4M = 9.8%, but that half carried ~$64M of favorable metal lag plus what the 10-Q calls 'favorable metal consumption and valuation impacts' (manufacturing costs down $60.0M YoY). Q2 2026 alone printed 10.6% — the figure a live data feed reads as 'the margin'.	5.6%	Kaiser Aluminum FY2025 10-K (accession 0001193125-26-059575, filed 2026-02-19): us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss FY2025 $188.8M / net sales $3,373.0M = 5.60%. Two things make this figure flattering and one makes it look worse than it is. FLATTERING: FY2025 adjusted EBITDA of $310M 'includes favorable metal price lag of approximately $93.0 million' (FY2025 release, 8-K Ex-99.1 filed 2026-02-18) — a timing gain from rising aluminum prices, not a repeatable earning; strip it and operating income is ~$96M (2.8% of net sales). LOOKS WORSE: the denominator is inflated by pass-through metal; on conversion revenue the same EBIT is 13.0%. CROSS-CHECK H1 2026: operating income $231.5M on $2,363.4M = 9.8%, but that half carried ~$64M of favorable metal lag plus what the 10-Q calls 'favorable metal consumption and valuation impacts' (manufacturing costs down $60.0M YoY). Q2 2026 alone printed 10.6% — the figure a live data feed reads as 'the margin'.
Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast	36% → 2% → 4% → 3% → 3%	ESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast
Risk-free rateUS 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation; the program-wide risk-free rate shared by every researched model in this run.	5.2%	US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation; the program-wide risk-free rate shared by every researched model in this run.
BetaYahoo Finance 5Y-monthly beta via yfinance: Published 5Y-monthly beta 1.58, used UNNORMALIZED. A levered (net debt ~0.4x market cap), small-cap ($2.6B), commodity-adjacent fabricator with aerospace exposure is a genuinely high-beta equity, so there is no stated reason to override it. It is the single biggest discount-rate lever: cost of equity is 13.14%. Each 0.1 of beta moves the per-share value by roughly $5-6 (see explainer). Normalizing toward 1.3 would raise the value; I don't, because nothing in the return history looks like a one-off distortion I can name.	1.58	Yahoo Finance 5Y-monthly beta via yfinance: Published 5Y-monthly beta 1.58, used UNNORMALIZED. A levered (net debt ~0.4x market cap), small-cap ($2.6B), commodity-adjacent fabricator with aerospace exposure is a genuinely high-beta equity, so there is no stated reason to override it. It is the single biggest discount-rate lever: cost of equity is 13.14%. Each 0.1 of beta moves the per-share value by roughly $5-6 (see explainer). Normalizing toward 1.3 would raise the value; I don't, because nothing in the return history looks like a one-off distortion I can name.
Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability. Reasonable for a fabricator whose volumes track aerospace build rates, beverage-can demand and industrial activity, with metal held flat. Well below the 10.82% WACC.	2.5%	ESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability. Reasonable for a fabricator whose volumes track aerospace build rates, beverage-can demand and industrial activity, with metal held flat. Well below the 10.82% WACC.
Diluted sharesKaiser Aluminum Q2 2026 10-Q (accession 0001193125-26-314580, filed 2026-07-23): Q2 2026 weighted-average diluted shares 16,918 thousand (two-class method; H1 16,886K; FY2025 16,622K). Above the 16,349,092 shares outstanding because unvested restricted stock, RSUs and performance shares participate. No buybacks — Kaiser 'suspended share repurchases as of March 2020' (FY2025 10-K) — so the count drifts up ~1-2%/yr with equity compensation.	17M	Kaiser Aluminum Q2 2026 10-Q (accession 0001193125-26-314580, filed 2026-07-23): Q2 2026 weighted-average diluted shares 16,918 thousand (two-class method; H1 16,886K; FY2025 16,622K). Above the 16,349,092 shares outstanding because unvested restricted stock, RSUs and performance shares participate. No buybacks — Kaiser 'suspended share repurchases as of March 2020' (FY2025 10-K) — so the count drifts up ~1-2%/yr with equity compensation.
Market priceBackup price feed · as of 2026-10-19 13:16 UTC	$147.25	Backup price feed · as of 2026-10-19 13:16 UTC

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What does Kaiser Aluminum Corporation do?

What does it do?

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells semi-fabricated specialty aluminum mill products. It offers flat-rolled plate, sheet, and coil; extruded rod, bar, hollows, and shapes; drawn rod, bar, pipe, tube, and wire; and cast aluminum products. It operates in the Aluminum industry (Basic Materials sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 3,800 people.

How does it make money?

The business turns $4.1B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $11 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 10.6%), after a 15% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 5.5% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.

Is it financially healthy?

Financially it looks mixed: carries moderate debt (1.1× equity), comfortably covers its short-term bills (2.5× current ratio), and is currently profitable.

KALU insider trading

We have no recent SEC Form 4 insider filings on file for Kaiser Aluminum Corporation. Form 4 covers US-listed companies only.

Common questions

What is KALU's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) between $60.39 and $348.16 per share, versus a market price of $147.25. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value, so we publish the range.
Is KALU overvalued or undervalued?
At $147.25 the price sits inside a range too wide to call either way. We don't call KALU overvalued or undervalued from a range this wide. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for KALU?
A WACC of 10.8% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Kaiser Aluminum stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair-value range for Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) is $60.39 – $348.16 against a market price of $147.25. Too wide to call. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair-value range for Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) is $60.39 – $348.16, built on a 10.8% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Kaiser Aluminum stock?
no growth rate up to 300%/yr justifies the price under these economics This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $147.25. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) insider trading
We have no recent SEC Form 4 insider filings on file for Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU). Form 4 covers US-listed companies only.