KIOXIA · Intrinsic value
Is Kioxia Holdings Corporation (KIOXIA) overvalued or undervalued?
Kioxia Holdings Corporation (KIOXIA) trades at the delayed market price of ¥61,060.00 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. TickerWorth's dcf fair value is ¥2,920 a share (1991% above fair value), as of Oct 19, 2026. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from a hand-researched model · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
Is KIOXIA overvalued?
- DCF fair value
- ¥2,920
- Market price
- ¥61,060.00
- Downside to fair value
- 95.2%
- Verdict
- 1991% above fair value
Reverse DCF, on our cash-flow model rather than the fair value above: Today's price implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. Above about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative. It solves for revenue growth alone — holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed — so a price well above our cash-flow model's value has nowhere to go but growth, and the solver returns a rate the model can't reconcile. Read it as "the price implies growth we can't justify", not as a forecast.
Why KIOXIA has no TickerWorth Score
We can't score this company honestly with the data we can see. Rather than publish a number we don't stand behind, we're showing what we do and don't have.
Confidence: Not enough data · Scored
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KIOXIA DCF valuation: what the price assumes
At a recent price of ¥61,060, Kioxia Holdings Corporation (KIOXIA) trades 1991% above TickerWorth's base-case discounted-cash-flow (DCF) fair value of ¥2,920 per share — meaning the market currently prices KIOXIA overvalued vs our estimate of what the business is intrinsically worth. Our fair value sits below the market, an implied -95.2% move to close the gap if the business performs in line with our assumptions. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation — the value moves with the inputs, which you can test yourself using the WACC slider below.
Read the full reasoning
The valuation discounts Kioxia Holdings Corporation's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 10.6%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 1.5%. About 50% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — KIOXIA would need sustained revenue growth of more than 25%/yr to justify today's price, against about 0.8% a year compounded in our base case. We don't quote a precise figure here, because past about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative: it solves for revenue growth alone, holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed, so a price well above our fair value has nowhere to go but growth. The honest reading is that the price implies growth this model can't reconcile — not that we forecast it.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, KIOXIA's modeled DCF value ranges from about ¥2,316 to ¥3,963 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Kioxia Holdings Corporation would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of KIOXIA's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind KIOXIA's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueKioxia FY-ended-Mar-2026 (IFRS); stockanalysis.com + yfinance agree: Record year: rev JPY 2.34tn (+37%), op income JPY 869bn (37.2% margin). Pure NAND. total_debt = borrowings-only (excl leases). | ¥2,337,628,000,000 |
| Base EBIT marginKioxia FY-ended-Mar-2026 (IFRS); stockanalysis.com + yfinance agree: op income 869,013 / revenue 2,337,628 = 37.2% | 37.2% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 5% → 0% → -10% → 5% → 5% |
| Risk-free rateJP 10Y govt bond: Japan 10Y JGB 2.71% | 2.7% |
| BetaESTIMATEAssumption — normalized estimate: NO published beta (IPO'd Dec-2024, <2yr history); estimated 1.50 from memory peers. FLAGGED. | 1.50 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — house default: long-run nominal growth in JPY; must be < WACC | 1.5% |
| Diluted sharesshares outstanding / diluted | 547M |
| Market priceyfinance live quote: Down ~16% on 7/17; ~-52% from the June-22 peak (~JPY 110k+) · as of 2026-07-22T00:15:47+00:00 | ¥61,060 |
Change KIOXIA's assumptions
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What does Kioxia Holdings Corporation do?
What does it do?
Kioxia Holdings Corporation is a publicly-traded company. A detailed business description isn't available from our free data source.
How does it make money?
How profitable each sales dollar is isn't available from our free data right now — see the multiples lens for the market's read on its earnings power.
Is it financially healthy?
There isn't enough free financial data to judge the balance sheet right now.
KIOXIA insider trading
Insider filings are available for US-listed companies only.
Common questions
What is KIOXIA's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's base-case DCF fair value for Kioxia Holdings Corporation (KIOXIA) is ¥2,920 per share, versus a market price of ¥61,060 (1991% above fair value).
Is KIOXIA overvalued or undervalued?
On our DCF model KIOXIA looks overvalued vs fair value at ¥61,060. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for KIOXIA?
A WACC of 10.6% and a terminal growth rate of 1.5%.
Is Kioxia stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's dcf fair value for Kioxia Holdings Corporation (KIOXIA) is ¥2,920 against a market price of ¥61,060.00. Our read: 1991% above fair value. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Kioxia (KIOXIA) DCF valuation and fair value
Our dcf fair value for Kioxia Holdings Corporation (KIOXIA) is ¥2,920, built on a 10.6% discount rate (WACC) and 1.5% terminal growth. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Kioxia stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. Above about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative. It solves for revenue growth alone — holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed — so a price well above our cash-flow model's value has nowhere to go but growth, and the solver returns a rate the model can't reconcile. Read it as "the price implies growth we can't justify", not as a forecast. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of ¥61,060.00. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Kioxia (KIOXIA) insider trading
We have no recent SEC Form 4 insider filings on file for Kioxia Holdings Corporation (KIOXIA). Form 4 covers US-listed companies only.
How does KIOXIA compare with its peers?
Stocks below our fair value instead
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.