LLY · Intrinsic value
Is Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) overvalued or undervalued?
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) trades at the delayed market price of $1,257.03 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of 14.8% a year for 5 years. TickerWorth's fair value is $995.88 a share (priced within our range of $607.91 – $1,297.64). We do not call it over- or undervalued from inside our range.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
Is LLY fairly valued?
- Fair value
- $995.88
- Market price
- $1,257.03
- Downside to fair value
- 20.8%
- Verdict
- Priced within our range of $607.91 – $1,297.64
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 14.8% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 16.6% a year on average over the same horizon.
What is LLY's TickerWorth Score?
Middle of the pack — real strengths and real weaknesses
Compared with Healthcare companies in US
Its strongest point: a profitable, high-quality business. Its weakest: looks expensive on the numbers.
- Value · 19 of 100
Cheaper than 19% of Healthcare companies in US
- Price vs worth · 33 of 100
- Quality · 96 of 100
More profitable than 96% of Healthcare companies in US
- Financial health · 31 of 100
Financially stronger than 31% of Healthcare companies in US
- Growth · 69 of 100
Growing faster than 69% of Healthcare companies in US
- Momentum · 90 of 100
Outperformed 90% of Healthcare companies in US over the past year
Confidence: High confidence · Scored
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LLY DCF valuation, input by input
TickerWorth's fair value for Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) is $995.88 a share, against the delayed market price of $1,257.03 (priced within our range of $607.91 – $1,297.64). We do not call it over- or undervalued from inside our range. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
Read the full reasoning
One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values LLY at about $1,298 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.
The valuation discounts Eli Lilly and Company's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 7.5%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 81% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 14.8% annual revenue growth for LLY. Our base case instead compounds to about 16.6% a year over the same forecast, so the market's implied growth is broadly in line with our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, LLY's modeled DCF value ranges from about $866.92 to $2,583 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Eli Lilly and Company would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of LLY's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind LLY's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueLive feed — totalRevenue (TTM) | $79,666,000,000 |
| Base EBIT marginComputed — reported operating margin exceeded the EBITDA margin (impossible); held to 50.4% so D&A stays positive | 50.3% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 30% → 24% → 17% → 10% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.2% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 0.50 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesLive feed — sharesOutstanding | 891M |
| Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 16:19 UTC | $1,257 |
Change LLY's assumptions
The discount-rate dial and the editable model
ProChange growth, margin and WACC yourself — Pro (7-day free trial, card required).
What does Eli Lilly and Company do?
What does it do?
Eli Lilly and Company discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets human pharmaceutical products in the United States, Europe, China, Japan, and internationally. The company offers cardiometabolic health products, including Basaglar, Humalog, Humalog Mix 75/25, Humalog U-100, Humalog U-200, Humalog Mix 50/50, insulin lispro, insulin lispro protamine, insulin lispro mix 75/25, Humulin, Humulin 70/30, Humulin N, Humulin R, Humulin U-500 for diabetes; Jardiance, Mounjaro, and Trulicity for type 2 diabetes; and Zepbound for obesity. It operates in the Drug Manufacturers - General industry (Healthcare sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 50,000 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $79.7B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $54 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 54.2%), after a 83% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 33.5% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks stretched: carries moderate debt (1.6× equity), can just cover its short-term bills (1.4× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
Who at LLY filed insider trades?
| Date | Insider | Relationship | What happened | Value | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sulzberger Gabrielle | Director | Grant / award | $4,958.35 | Form 4 for Sulzberger Gabrielle (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| LUCIANO JUAN R | Director | Grant / award | $15,916.71 | Form 4 for LUCIANO JUAN R (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Fyrwald J Erik | Director | Grant / award | $9,916.71 | Form 4 for Fyrwald J Erik (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Alvarez Ralph | Director | Grant / award | $12,416.68 | Form 4 for Alvarez Ralph (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Seymour Melissa | EVP, Global Quality | Gift | — | Form 4 for Seymour Melissa (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Hernandez Edgardo | EVP & Pres., Mfg. Operations | Gift | — | Form 4 for Hernandez Edgardo (opens sec.gov in a new tab) |
A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans
Common questions
What is LLY's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's blended fair value for Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) is $995.88 per share, versus a market price of $1,257.03 (priced within our range of $607.91 – $1,297.64).
Is LLY overvalued or undervalued?
Priced within our range of $607.91 – $1,297.64 at $1,257.03. We don't call LLY overvalued or undervalued from a range. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for LLY?
A WACC of 7.5% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Eli Lilly and stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair value for Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) is $995.88 against a market price of $1,257.03. Our read: Priced within our range of $607.91 – $1,297.64. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Eli Lilly and (LLY) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair value for Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) is $995.88, built on a 7.5% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Eli Lilly and stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 14.8% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 16.6% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $1,257.03. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Eli Lilly and (LLY) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Eli Lilly and Company (LLY): Sulzberger Gabrielle, Director, grant / award on 2026-09-21. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.
How does LLY compare with its peers?
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Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.