Is MATX overvalued or undervalued?

At $237.20 the price sits inside a range too wide to call either way. We don't call MATX overvalued or undervalued from a range. This is an educational estimate, not advice.

What discount rate is used for MATX?

A WACC of 11.4% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.

Is Matson stock undervalued?

TickerWorth's fair-value range for Matson, Inc. (MATX) is $102.52 – $416.16 against a market price of $237.20. Too wide to call. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.

Matson (MATX) DCF valuation and fair value

Our fair-value range for Matson, Inc. (MATX) is $102.52 – $416.16, built on a 11.4% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.

What growth is priced into Matson stock?

Today's price implies revenue growth of 22.7% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 2.9% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $237.20. A model estimate, not investment advice.

Matson (MATX) insider trading

We have no recent SEC Form 4 insider filings on file for Matson, Inc. (MATX). Form 4 covers US-listed companies only.

MATX · Intrinsic value

Is Matson, Inc. (MATX) overvalued or undervalued?

Name: Matson, Inc. (MATX) DCF intrinsic value
Creator: TickerWorth

As of Oct 19, 2026, TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Matson, Inc. (MATX) at $102.52 – $416.16, too broad a range to say where the delayed market price of $237.20 sits in it, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.

Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from a hand-researched model · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made

Open full MATX analysis

What is MATX worth?

Backup data source

This price comes from our backup market-data feed.

Fair-value range: $102.52 – $416.16; A range by design: peer multiples and our researched mid-cycle DCF.
Market price: $237.20
Gap to fair value: —
Verdict: Too wide to call

Price as of 19 Oct 2026, 13:53 UTC · Prices are delayed.We publish this company as a range by design, not because our valuation lenses disagree, and we do not collapse it to a single number. We do not call it over- or undervalued from a range.

Fair-value range against the delayed market price: Too wide to call.

Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 22.7% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 2.9% a year on average over the same horizon.

What is MATX's TickerWorth Score?

A63/100

Scores higher than almost every company we compare it with

Compared with Industrials companies in US

Its strongest point: recent price trend has been strong.

Value · 66 of 100
Cheaper than 66% of Industrials companies in US
Price vs worth · 68 of 100
Quality · 52 of 100
More profitable than 52% of Industrials companies in US
Financial health · 55 of 100
Financially stronger than 55% of Industrials companies in US
Growth · 52 of 100
Growing faster than 52% of Industrials companies in US
Momentum · 100 of 100
Outperformed virtually every one of the Industrials companies in US over the past year

Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored 19 Oct 2026, 13:53 UTC

Get the Undervalued Company of the Week.

Where the numbers come from

Hand-researched model

What the modeller flagged

⚠ CYCLICAL — PUBLISHED AS A RANGE. The forecast deliberately carries a revenue decline in 2027 (-3%) after an elevated 2026, which trips the site's models_a_downturn flag. That is intended: the China expedited service earns a premium that rises and falls with Transpacific conditions, and 2026's supply-tight market and fuel-surcharge revenue are not assumed to persist.
YEAR-1 FCF IS ~49% BELOW FY2025's REPORTED FCF ($78M modelled vs $153.7M) — past the 20% line. Fully explained by capex: Year 1 carries the guided $605M (incl. ~$400M of newbuild milestones) against $393M of capex in FY2025. Excluding newbuild, Year-1 FCF would be ~$480M.
TERMINAL VALUE IS ~70% OF ENTERPRISE VALUE — below the 75% danger line, but the terminal year rests on two soft inputs: a 14% mid-cycle margin and a 9% sustaining-capex rate.
THE MODEL DISAGREES SHARPLY WITH THE PRICE. It values Matson at less than half of what the market pays. The gap is mostly three inputs: beta 1.30 (WACC 11.4%), capex held at 9% of revenue forever, and the fade from a ~16% 2026 margin to 14%. Even a generous combination (beta 0.9, capex 7%, margin 16% held) only reaches about $186 — still ~19% below the price.
WHAT THE AUTOMATIC MODEL MAY HAVE DONE DIFFERENTLY: the generic lens in app/auto.py holds steady-state capex at no more than 1.5x depreciation (6.6% of revenue here, against depreciation that excludes dry-dock amortization) and grows revenue from the strong Q2 2026 run-rate without a down year. Run on 2026-10-05 in this repository it returns ~$136; the +115% figure shown on the site could not be reproduced here, so its exact cause is not claimed.
SBC ($22.7M in FY2025, ~0.7% of revenue) is expensed inside GAAP operating income; dilution is captured by the diluted share count. Buybacks shrink the count ~5-7% a year at recent rates — a tailwind to per-share value not modelled.

Why MATX gets a range, not one number

At a recent price of $237.20, Matson, Inc. (MATX) sits inside a range too wide to call either way: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $102.52 and $416.16 per share. For a cyclical we value through the cycle we publish a range only (peer multiples and our researched mid-cycle DCF): where in the cycle the business sits decides where in that range it lands, and a single figure would claim we know that precisely. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.

Read the full reasoning

The valuation discounts Matson, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 11.4%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 70% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.

Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 22.7% annual revenue growth for MATX. Our base case instead compounds to about 2.9% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in materially faster growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.

Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, MATX's modeled DCF value ranges from about $82.18 to $138.51 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.

How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Matson, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of MATX's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.

Every input behind MATX's DCF

Input	Value	Source
Base-year revenueMatson 4Q/FY2025 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001104659-26-019116, filed 2026-02-24) + Matson FY2025 10-K (accession 0001104659-26-020944, filed 2026-02-27): Total operating revenue FY2025: Ocean Transportation $2,735.5M + Logistics $609.0M = $3,344.5M, -2.3% vs FY2024 $3,421.8M (China volume -9.5% on tariff disruption). Ties to us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax CY2025 in the XBRL companyfacts. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 revenue was $1,727.2M, +7.1% on H1 2025 ($1,612.5M); Q2 alone +16.7% ($969.4M vs $830.5M). UNCHANGED as the base — the 2026 strength belongs in Year 1, not here.	$3,344,500,000	Matson 4Q/FY2025 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001104659-26-019116, filed 2026-02-24) + Matson FY2025 10-K (accession 0001104659-26-020944, filed 2026-02-27): Total operating revenue FY2025: Ocean Transportation $2,735.5M + Logistics $609.0M = $3,344.5M, -2.3% vs FY2024 $3,421.8M (China volume -9.5% on tariff disruption). Ties to us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax CY2025 in the XBRL companyfacts. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 revenue was $1,727.2M, +7.1% on H1 2025 ($1,612.5M); Q2 alone +16.7% ($969.4M vs $830.5M). UNCHANGED as the base — the 2026 strength belongs in Year 1, not here.
Base EBIT marginMatson 4Q/FY2025 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001104659-26-019116, filed 2026-02-24): GAAP operating income $499.8M / revenue $3,344.5M = 14.94%. Includes $32.5M of income from the SSAT terminal joint venture, which Matson reports inside operating income (it is a terminal operation integral to the ocean business), so the SSAT investment is NOT also added to the equity bridge. Excludes $31.7M interest income (captured instead through the net-cash bridge) and $9.1M of pension-related other income (non-cash). HISTORY MATTERS FOR THIS INPUT: operating margin was 5.9% (2019), 11.8% (2020), 30.3% (2021), 31.2% (2022), 11.1% (2023), 16.1% (2024), 14.9% (2025) — FY2025 is a mid-cycle-to-soft year (tariff-hit China lane), not a peak. CROSS-CHECK H1 2026: $220.3M / $1,727.2M = 12.8% vs 12.1% in H1 2025; Matson's second and third quarters are seasonally strongest.	14.9%	Matson 4Q/FY2025 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001104659-26-019116, filed 2026-02-24): GAAP operating income $499.8M / revenue $3,344.5M = 14.94%. Includes $32.5M of income from the SSAT terminal joint venture, which Matson reports inside operating income (it is a terminal operation integral to the ocean business), so the SSAT investment is NOT also added to the equity bridge. Excludes $31.7M interest income (captured instead through the net-cash bridge) and $9.1M of pension-related other income (non-cash). HISTORY MATTERS FOR THIS INPUT: operating margin was 5.9% (2019), 11.8% (2020), 30.3% (2021), 31.2% (2022), 11.1% (2023), 16.1% (2024), 14.9% (2025) — FY2025 is a mid-cycle-to-soft year (tariff-hit China lane), not a peak. CROSS-CHECK H1 2026: $220.3M / $1,727.2M = 12.8% vs 12.1% in H1 2025; Matson's second and third quarters are seasonally strongest.
Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast	10% → -3% → 3% → 3% → 2%	ESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast
Risk-free rateUS 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation; program-wide rate shared by every researched model.	5.2%	US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation; program-wide rate shared by every researched model.
Betayfinance 5Y-monthly beta: Published 5Y-monthly beta 1.301, used as the anchor UNCHANGED. Reasoned case for a lower figure exists — roughly half of operating income comes from Jones Act domestic lanes (Hawaii, Alaska, Guam) that behave like regulated utilities — but the stock's measured co-movement is driven by the China expedited service, and the 2021-23 boom-bust sits inside the window. Not normalized; flagged as a lever: beta 1.0 gives ~$122/share, 0.9 gives ~$131. Keeping 1.30 is the conservative direction (higher WACC, lower value).	1.30	yfinance 5Y-monthly beta: Published 5Y-monthly beta 1.301, used as the anchor UNCHANGED. Reasoned case for a lower figure exists — roughly half of operating income comes from Jones Act domestic lanes (Hawaii, Alaska, Guam) that behave like regulated utilities — but the stock's measured co-movement is driven by the China expedited service, and the 2021-23 boom-bust sits inside the window. Not normalized; flagged as a lever: beta 1.0 gives ~$122/share, 0.9 gives ~$131. Keeping 1.30 is the conservative direction (higher WACC, lower value).
Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5%. Reasonable for Matson: the domestic lanes grow with island/Alaska population and prices roughly with inflation; China expedited volume is capacity-limited. Must stay below WACC (11.40%). 3.0% adds ~$4/share.	2.5%	ESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5%. Reasonable for Matson: the domestic lanes grow with island/Alaska population and prices roughly with inflation; China expedited volume is capacity-limited. Must stay below WACC (11.40%). 3.0% adds ~$4/share.
Diluted sharesMatson Q2 2026 10-Q (accession 0001104659-26-090003, filed 2026-08-04): Q2 2026 weighted-average diluted shares 30.3M (H1 30.5M; FY2025 32.2M). The count is FALLING fast — Matson bought back 2.7M shares in 2025 and 0.7M in H1 2026, with 3.4M authorized remaining through 2029 — so the forward per-share figure would be modestly higher if buybacks continue at fair prices. Not modelled.	30M	Matson Q2 2026 10-Q (accession 0001104659-26-090003, filed 2026-08-04): Q2 2026 weighted-average diluted shares 30.3M (H1 30.5M; FY2025 32.2M). The count is FALLING fast — Matson bought back 2.7M shares in 2025 and 0.7M in H1 2026, with 3.4M authorized remaining through 2029 — so the forward per-share figure would be modestly higher if buybacks continue at fair prices. Not modelled.
Market priceBackup price feed · as of 2026-10-19 13:53 UTC	$237.20	Backup price feed · as of 2026-10-19 13:53 UTC

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What does Matson, Inc. do?

What does it do?

Matson, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the provision of ocean transportation and logistics services. It operates through two segments, Ocean Transportation and Logistics. It operates in the Marine Shipping industry (Industrials sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 4,170 people.

How does it make money?

The business turns $3.5B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $16 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 16.1%), after a 23% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 13.4% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.

Is it financially healthy?

Financially it looks stretched: carries modest debt (0.3× equity), may struggle to cover its short-term bills (0.9× current ratio), and is currently profitable.

MATX insider trading

We have no recent SEC Form 4 insider filings on file for Matson, Inc.. Form 4 covers US-listed companies only.

Common questions

What is MATX's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Matson, Inc. (MATX) between $102.52 and $416.16 per share, versus a market price of $237.20. For a cyclical we value through the cycle we publish a range only (peer multiples and our researched mid-cycle DCF): where in the cycle the business sits decides where in that range it lands, and a single figure would claim we know that precisely.
Is MATX overvalued or undervalued?
At $237.20 the price sits inside a range too wide to call either way. We don't call MATX overvalued or undervalued from a range. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for MATX?
A WACC of 11.4% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Matson stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair-value range for Matson, Inc. (MATX) is $102.52 – $416.16 against a market price of $237.20. Too wide to call. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Matson (MATX) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair-value range for Matson, Inc. (MATX) is $102.52 – $416.16, built on a 11.4% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Matson stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 22.7% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 2.9% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $237.20. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Matson (MATX) insider trading
We have no recent SEC Form 4 insider filings on file for Matson, Inc. (MATX). Form 4 covers US-listed companies only.