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MRVL · Intrinsic value

Is Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL) overvalued or undervalued?

Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL) trades at the delayed market price of $227.83 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. TickerWorth's fair value is $99.26 a share (130% above fair value), as of Oct 19, 2026. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.

Model by · generated from a hand-researched model · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made

Is MRVL overvalued?

Backup data source
This price comes from our backup market-data feed.
Fair value
$99.26
Market price
$227.83
Downside to fair value
56.4%
Verdict
130% above fair value
Price as of · Prices are delayed.
Fair value against the delayed market price: 130% above fair value.

Reverse DCF, on our cash-flow model rather than the fair value above: Today's price implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. Above about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative. It solves for revenue growth alone — holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed — so a price well above our cash-flow model's value has nowhere to go but growth, and the solver returns a rate the model can't reconcile. Read it as "the price implies growth we can't justify", not as a forecast.

What is MRVL's TickerWorth Score?

D45/100

Priced richly vs peers — the business scores well

Compared with Technology companies in US

Its strongest point: growing quickly. Its weakest: looks expensive on the numbers.

  • Value · 21 of 100

    Cheaper than 21% of Technology companies in US

  • Price vs worth · 5 of 100
  • Quality · 61 of 100

    More profitable than 61% of Technology companies in US

  • Financial health · 59 of 100

    Financially stronger than 59% of Technology companies in US

  • Growth · 75 of 100

    Growing faster than 75% of Technology companies in US

  • Momentum · 70 of 100

    Outperformed 70% of Technology companies in US over the past year

Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored

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MRVL DCF valuation: what the price assumes

At a recent price of $227.83, Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL) trades 130% above TickerWorth's blended fair value of $99.26 per share. For this company that blend leans on peer multiples: our discounted-cash-flow model holds margins flat and fades growth toward a long-run rate, which systematically understates a business growing this fast, so its figure (about $43.14) is shown as a reference beside the range rather than blended into it. Our estimate sits below the market — read that as a statement about how the market prices MRVL against comparable companies, not as a finding that it is overvalued on cash flow. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.

Read the full reasoning

The valuation discounts Marvell Technology, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 14.6%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 66% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.

Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — MRVL would need sustained revenue growth of more than 25%/yr to justify today's price. We don't quote a precise figure here, because past about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative: it solves for revenue growth alone, holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed, so a price well above our fair value has nowhere to go but growth. The honest reading is that the price implies growth this model can't reconcile — not that we forecast it.

Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, MRVL's modeled DCF value ranges from about $35.67 to $54.47 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.

How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Marvell Technology, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of MRVL's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.

Every input behind MRVL's DCF

InputValue
Base-year revenueMarvell Q4/FY2026 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 filed 2026-03-05; ties to FY2026 10-K (accession 0001835632-26-000011, filed 2026-03-11): Net revenue for the fiscal year ended 2026-01-31 (52 weeks), +42% on FY2025's $5,767.3M. End markets (10-K Note 3): Data center $6,100.3M (74%, +46%) and Communications and other $2,094.3M (26%, +31%). THE BASE CONTAINS A DIVESTED BUSINESS: the automotive ethernet business was sold to Infineon on 2025-08-14 for $2.5B cash (10-K MD&A), so FY2026 carries ~6.5 months of its revenue. The 10-K does not size that revenue, so I cannot strip it out; it slightly understates the organic growth rate implied by the forecast. UNCHANGED as the base; the FY2027 ramp belongs in the forecast. CROSS-CHECK: H1 FY2027 revenue was $5,157.1M, +32.2% on H1 FY2026's $3,901.4M (Q2 FY2027 release, 8-K Ex-99.1 filed 2026-08-27); Q2 alone $2,739.3M, +37%.$8,194,600,000
Base EBIT marginMarvell Q4/FY2026 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 filed 2026-03-05; FY2026 10-K (accession 0001835632-26-000011): THIS IS EBITA, NOT GAAP OPERATING INCOME — the AMD method in this tracker, not the IBM method, and it is the most important accounting call in the model. GAAP operating income $1,322.9M (16.14%) PLUS amortization of acquired intangible assets $942.0M (cash-flow statement; $639.0M in cost of goods sold + $303.0M in opex per the GAAP-to-non-GAAP reconciliation) = $2,264.9M / $8,194.6M = 27.64%. Everything ELSE stays expensed: stock-based compensation $590.8M (7.2% of revenue), restructuring $15.5M, acquisition costs. So this is NOT Marvell's non-GAAP operating margin (35.3% for FY2026), which also strips out SBC. WHY EBITA: the amortization is overwhelmingly Inphi (2021) and Cavium (2018), deals already paid for, largely in stock that is already in the share count, and it runs OFF fast on the schedule Marvell files: $385.3M for the rest of FY2027, $292.7M FY2028, $139.6M FY2029, $117.2M FY2030, $60.8M FY2031, $54.0M thereafter (Q2 FY2027 10-Q, Note 5). The engine holds D&A at a fixed % of revenue, so keeping GAAP EBIT would freeze an 11.5%-of-revenue charge that is ~1% by FY2029 into the terminal year forever. Celestial AI's $951M of acquired intangibles is all IPR&D, which is NOT amortized until the technology reaches production, so it is not yet in the schedule. CROSS-CHECK, same derivation: H1 FY2027 GAAP operating income $799.1M + amortization $440.1M = $1,239.2M / $5,157.1M = 24.03%; Q2 alone $459.7M + $214.9M = 24.63%. The drop from 27.6% is stock compensation: SBC jumped to $326.2M in Q2 (11.9% of revenue, from 7.7% a year earlier) on acquisition headcount and Celestial's assumed awards ($190.1M of post-combination expense to recognize).27.6%
Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast46% → 50% → 20% → 12% → 7%
Risk-free rateUS 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. House input shared by every model in this tracker.5.2%
BetaESTIMATEAssumption — normalized estimate; published Yahoo/yfinance 5Y-monthly beta 2.253 read 2026-10-03: Published 5Y-monthly beta is 2.253; I reproduced it from yfinance monthly prices vs the S&P 500 at 2.282 (60 returns to 2026-10). NORMALIZED DOWN to 1.90, which RAISES the value. Evidence the published figure is inflated by one event: dropping April 2026 alone (MRVL +66.8% against the S&P +10.4%, the month NVIDIA's $2B investment was announced) takes the regression from 2.28 to 1.91; the first 36 months of the same window, before the AI re-rating, give 1.90. But I do NOT go as low as the 1.60 this tracker uses for AMD and MU, because Marvell's beta was already ~2.1 before 2026 (window ending 2025-12: 2.12) — it is a structurally high-beta stock, with a 52-week range of $70.69-$329.88. Sensitivities: published 2.28 gives ~$36.40; the tracker's 1.60 gives ~$50.15.1.90
Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability with every other company in this tracker. For a company still guiding +50% two years out this is the structural reason the model lands far below the price: a 5-year explicit window that ends at +7% and then grows at 2.5% forever cannot represent a longer high-growth runway. 2.0% takes ~$1.31/share off, 3.0% adds ~$1.43. Well below the 14.55% WACC.2.5%
Diluted sharesESTIMATEAssumption — Marvell Q2 FY2027 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 filed 2026-08-27; Q2 FY2027 10-Q Notes 3 and 15; Google warrant 8-K filed 2026-08-19 + estimate for warrants: REPORTED BASE + A STATED ADJUSTMENT. Q2 FY2027 weighted-average diluted shares were 921.2M, which already counts NVIDIA's $2B Series A preferred as converted (21.8M shares, conversion price ~$91.84) — the release labels the count 'common stock and preferred stock assuming conversion'; Q3 is guided at 921M. ADDED (+9.8M): (1) HALF of the Google warrant on the treasury-stock method — 58,970,907 shares at a $206.58 strike, issued 2026-08-18, vesting one tranche per $500M of Google custom-product revenue from Q3 FY2027 through FY2033. The forecast assumes Google revenue that vests part of it, so counting the revenue and ignoring its price would be one-sided; but full vesting needs ~$120B of purchases, far beyond this model's path. Half × (1 - 206.58/272.29) = +7.1M. (2) The unvested older customer warrants (3.0M at $87.77 and 1.0M at $87.00, 10-Q Note 3) on the same method = +2.7M. 921.2 + 9.8 = 931.0M. LOWERS value slightly: no warrants gives ~$43.60, the whole Google warrant ~$42.81.931M
Market priceBackup price feed · as of 2026-10-19 12:50 UTC$227.83

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What does Marvell Technology, Inc. do?

What does it do?

Marvell Technology, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides data infrastructure semiconductor solutions and spanning the data center core to network edge in the United States, Argentina, China, India, Israel, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, and internationally. The company develops and scales system-on-a-chip architectures, integrating analog, mixed-signal, and digital signal processing functionality. It operates in the Semiconductors industry (Technology sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 7,480 people.

How does it make money?

The business turns $9.5B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $17 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 16.7%), after a 52% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 27.9% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.

Is it financially healthy?

Financially it looks solid: carries modest debt (0.3× equity), comfortably covers its short-term bills (3.2× current ratio), and is currently profitable.

Who at MRVL filed insider trades?

Recent insider filings for Marvell Technology, Inc.
DateInsiderRelationshipWhat happenedValueFiling
Bharathi SandeepPresident, Data Center GroupOpen-market sale$865,864.45Form 4 for Bharathi Sandeep (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
Scarpulla JustinSVP, Chief Accounting OfficerOption exercise—Form 4 for Scarpulla Justin (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
Scarpulla JustinSVP, Chief Accounting OfficerShares withheld (tax)$61,033.72Form 4 for Scarpulla Justin (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
Koopmans ChrisPresident and COOOption exercise—Form 4 for Koopmans Chris (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
Koopmans ChrisPresident and COOShares withheld (tax)$354,140.32Form 4 for Koopmans Chris (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
Koopmans ChrisPresident and COOOption exercise—Form 4 for Koopmans Chris (opens sec.gov in a new tab)

A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans

Common questions

  • What is MRVL's intrinsic value?

    TickerWorth's blended fair value for Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL) is $99.26 per share, versus a market price of $227.83 (130% above fair value).

  • Is MRVL overvalued or undervalued?

    Our cash-flow model understates a business growing this fast, so we don't call MRVL overvalued on it. Against a blend that leans on peer multiples, the price of $227.83 sits 130% above our estimate. This is an educational estimate, not advice.

  • What discount rate is used for MRVL?

    A WACC of 14.6% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.

  • Is Marvell Technology stock undervalued?

    TickerWorth's fair value for Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL) is $99.26 against a market price of $227.83. Our read: 130% above fair value. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.

  • Marvell Technology (MRVL) DCF valuation and fair value

    Our fair value for Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL) is $99.26, built on a 14.6% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.

  • What growth is priced into Marvell Technology stock?

    Today's price implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. Above about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative. It solves for revenue growth alone — holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed — so a price well above our cash-flow model's value has nowhere to go but growth, and the solver returns a rate the model can't reconcile. Read it as "the price implies growth we can't justify", not as a forecast. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $227.83. A model estimate, not investment advice.

  • Marvell Technology (MRVL) insider trading

    The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL): Bharathi Sandeep, President, Data Center Group, open-market sale on 2026-10-16. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.

How does MRVL compare with its peers?

Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.

TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.